Armidale Surrounds - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Armidale Surrounds - South is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Armidale Surrounds - South's population was around 6,071 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 177 people (3.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,894 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,983 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1.9 persons per square kilometer. Armidale Surrounds - South's 3.0% growth since census positions it within 0.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 76.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to increase by 544 persons to 2041, with an increase of 7.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Armidale Surrounds - South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Armidale Surrounds - South has granted approximately 19 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 98 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average expected construction cost for new dwellings is $238,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - South records 19.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 35th percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing homes. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 484 people.

Population forecasts indicate Armidale Surrounds - South will gain 451 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Armidale Surrounds - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 30 projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include New England Solar Farm, Armidale Regional Airport Business Park, Deeargee Solar And Battery Project, and Proposed Solar Farm at 347 Dangarsleigh Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Armidale Surrounds - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Armidale Surrounds - South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.1% as of June 2025, showing an employment growth of 3.7% over the past year.

In this period, 3,389 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 2.5% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 59.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are education & training, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and health care & social assistance. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.8 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 13.5% of Armidale Surrounds - South's workforce compared to 16.9% in Rest of NSW. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data for the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force increased by 3.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 offer further insight into potential future demand within Armidale Surrounds - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Armidale Surrounds - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, as a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Armidale Surrounds - South is $44,920 and average income is $53,704. This is below national averages of $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average) for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimated median income in Armidale Surrounds - South would be approximately $50,584 and average income $60,476, based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Armidale Surrounds - South rank modestly, between the 29th and 32nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort is $1,500-$2,999, representing 30.4% of locals (1,845 people), similar to the broader area at 29.9%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.1% retained, but disposable income ranks below average at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Armidale Surrounds - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Armidale Surrounds - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.7% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale Surrounds - South was at 44.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (37.1%) or rented (18.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,426, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW's figures were $1,408 and $280 respectively. Nationally, Armidale Surrounds - South's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale Surrounds - South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.3% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.7%, with lone person households making up 25.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Armidale Surrounds - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 26.0% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 19.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.3% and certificates for 27.9%.

Educational participation is high at 28.8%, including 10.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Armidale Surrounds - South, educating approximately 425 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 969) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes five primary schools and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited at 7.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that within Armidale Surrounds - South, there are currently 370 active public transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. The area is served by 32 individual routes in total, providing collectively 416 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 213 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is around 59 trips per day, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale Surrounds - South is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale Surrounds - South faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% (2,853 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and asthma (9.0%). While 62.9% report no medical ailments, this is lower than Rest of NSW's 65.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.5% (1,365 people), compared to the state average of 20.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Armidale Surrounds - South placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale Surrounds-South, as per the 2016 Census, had a below average cultural diversity. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens with English as their primary language: 92.1%, 91.8%, and 97.4% respectively. The dominant religion in Armidale Surrounds-South was Christianity, practiced by 58.0% of its residents, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 55.0%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians led at 31.4%, followed by English at 30.9%, and Irish at 10.4%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal (6.2%), Scottish (9.1%), and German (3.6%) ancestry were slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.7%, 8.9%, and 3.5% respectively.

Armidale Surrounds - South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Armidale Surrounds - South has a median age of 47 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are particularly prominent, making up 15.6% of the population, while the 25-34 age group is comparatively smaller at 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 0-4 age group has grown from 4.9% to 5.7% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 16.3% to 15.6%. By 2041, Armidale Surrounds - South is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 18%, adding 114 people and reaching a total of 748 from the current 633. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort is projected to decline by 50 people.