Armidale Surrounds - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale Surrounds - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale Surrounds - North's population was around 4,738 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 211 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,527. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,650 in June 2024 and an additional 111 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Armidale Surrounds - North's growth of 4.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 3.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicated an increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the area expected to expand by 505 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.8% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Armidale Surrounds - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Armidale Surrounds - North has recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 33 homes were approved, with another five so far in FY-26. On average, around three people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years.

This demand significantly outpaces supply, typically putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. The average value of new homes being built is $405,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $2.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to the rest of NSW. Armidale Surrounds - North has significantly less development activity overall, with 64.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count is 865 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Armidale Surrounds - North will gain 417 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Armidale Surrounds - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be impacted by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 34 such projects that may affect the area. Notable projects include the Llangothlin Service Station Development, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Boorolong Wind Farm, and The South Hill Estate. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Armidale Surrounds - North positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Armidale Surrounds - North has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.4%.

As of September 2025, 2,804 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Leading employment industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 7.4 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.3% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, labour force by 1.3%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National projections forecast total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific growth rates vary significantly. Applying these projections to Armidale Surrounds - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Armidale Surrounds - North SA2 is below the national average. The median assessed income is $42,068 and the average income stands at $52,910. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Armidale Surrounds - North would be approximately $47,373 (median) and $59,582 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Armidale Surrounds - North fall between the 15th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.4% of the community (1,345 individuals), which is similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort also represents around 29.9%. Housing costs are modest with 89.7% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 21st percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Armidale Surrounds - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armidale Surrounds - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale Surrounds - North was 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented ones at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,094, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale Surrounds - North's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale Surrounds - North has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.5% of all households, consisting of 26.8% couples with children, 31.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Armidale Surrounds - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 29.5%. Educational participation is high, with 33.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 13.7% in primary, 10.5% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.7% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale Surrounds - North has 283 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of train and bus services. There are 25 individual routes operating in total, providing 258 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Residents' access to transport is rated excellent, with an average distance of 165 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 36 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale Surrounds - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,212 people), compared to 48.9% across Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.8 and 8.7% of residents respectively, while 67.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Rest of NSW.

The area has 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,065 people), higher than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Armidale Surrounds - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale Surrounds - North had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.8% citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 65.8%, compared to 55.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.1%), English (33.1%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher than regional averages, at 4.8% versus 5.7%. Irish representation was also notable, at 8.9% compared to the regional average of 9.5%.

Armidale Surrounds - North hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Armidale Surrounds - North has a median age of 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.1%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 13.2%, while the 25-34 cohort has risen from 9.8% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 14.1% to 12.2%. By 2041, Armidale Surrounds - North is projected to experience significant changes in its age composition. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 686 from 512. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to decrease in population.