Armidale Surrounds - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale Surrounds - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Armidale Surrounds - North's population is around 4718 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 191 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4527 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4651 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 102 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Armidale Surrounds - North's growth rate of 4.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (3.3%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 83.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the area expected to expand by 505 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, resulting in a total increase of 9.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Armidale Surrounds - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Armidale Surrounds - North has granted around 6 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 33 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY26 so far. On average, approximately 3 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

This demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices. The average construction value of new homes is $537,000. In FY26, commercial approvals valued at $2.3 million have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus in the area. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - North records markedly lower building activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 865 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Armidale Surrounds - North is expected to grow by 437 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Armidale Surrounds - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Llangothlin Service Station Development, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Boorolong Wind Farm, and South Hill Estate. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Armidale Surrounds - North places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Armidale Surrounds - North has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.4%.

Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 4.8%. In June 2025, 2,810 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.3% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is broadly similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

The area shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 7.4 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.3% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, labour force grew by 3.9%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Armidale Surrounds - North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.8%% over five years and 10.9% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Armidale Surrounds - North is $42,068 and average income is $52,910. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,373 (median) and $59,582 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Armidale Surrounds - North's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 15th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with metropolitan regions at 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with 89.7% of income retained. Total disposable income ranks at the 22nd percentile nationally, while SEIFA income ranking places Armidale Surrounds - North in the 4th decile.

Armidale Surrounds - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armidale Surrounds - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale Surrounds - North stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented ones at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,094, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. The median weekly rent in the area was $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale Surrounds - North's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale Surrounds - North has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.5% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 31.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Armidale Surrounds - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 29.5%. Educational participation is high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 13.7% in primary, 10.5% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

There are 8 schools operating within Armidale Surrounds - North, educating approximately 465 students. The educational mix includes 6 primary and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (9.9) fall below the regional average (15.7), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale Surrounds - North has 283 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of train and bus services. There are 25 individual routes operating in total, providing 258 weekly passenger trips combined.

The transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 165 meters from the nearest stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 36 trips per day, which equates to approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale Surrounds - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,203 people), compared to 48.9% across Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.8 and 8.7% of residents respectively.

However, 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Rest of NSW. The area has 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,061 people), which is higher than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Armidale Surrounds - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale Surrounds - North had a cultural diversity index below average, with 84.8% citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 65.8%, compared to 55.0% across Rest of NSW. The top ancestry groups were Australian (33.1%), English (33.1%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 4.8% (vs regional 5.7%) and Irish at 8.9% (vs 9.5%).

Armidale Surrounds - North hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Armidale Surrounds - North's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 13.2%, while the 25-34 cohort has risen from 9.8% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.1% to 12.2%. By 2041, Armidale Surrounds - North is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 686 people from the current 510. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decline in population.