Armidale Surrounds - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale Surrounds - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale Surrounds - North's population was approximately 4,718 as of August 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents a growth of 191 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,527. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 4,651 in June 2024 and an additional 102 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Armidale Surrounds - North's growth rate of 4.2% since the 2021 census surpassed both the SA3 area (3.3%) and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.6% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Armidale Surrounds - North expected to expand by 505 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, resulting in a total increase of 9.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Armidale Surrounds - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Armidale Surrounds - North has granted around 6 residential property approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 33 homes were approved, with an additional 4 granted in FY-26 so far. On average, approximately 3 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these past five financial years.

This high demand outpaces supply, putting upward pressure on prices and increasing buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is $537,000. In terms of commercial development, $2.3 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating limited focus on commercial projects compared to residential ones. Relative to the rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - North records significantly lower building activity, at 64.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

The area's recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining its traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. As of now, there are an estimated 865 people in the area per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Armidale Surrounds - North is projected to grow by 437 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Armidale Surrounds - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Llangothlin Service Station Development, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Boorolong Wind Farm, and The South Hill Estate. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The exceptional employment performance in Armidale Surrounds - North places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Armidale Surrounds - North has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year.

This is lower than the Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Leading industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 7.4 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.3% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, labour force grew by 3.9%, and unemployment fell by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1% with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) and the state unemployment rate is at 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armidale Surrounds - North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Armidale Surrounds - North is below the national average. The median assessed income is $42,068 and the average income stands at $52,910. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures, which have a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $46,527 (median) and $58,518 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Armidale Surrounds - North all fall between the 15th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.4% of the community (1,339 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with 89.7% of income retained. However, the total disposable income ranks at just the 22nd percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Armidale Surrounds - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armidale Surrounds - North's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation showed 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings (including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' types). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale Surrounds - North stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged properties at 26.0% and rented ones at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,094, significantly lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. The median weekly rent in the area was recorded as $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale Surrounds - North's mortgage repayments were notably lower at $1,094 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale Surrounds - North has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.5% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 31.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, consisting of 29.0% lone person households and 3.3% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Armidale Surrounds - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 22.1%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.2% and graduate diplomas at 2.9%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 29.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.7% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 8 schools operates within Armidale Surrounds - North, educating approximately 465 students while the area demonstrates varied educational conditions across Armidale Surrounds - North. The educational mix includes 6 primary and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents at 9.9 fall below the regional average of 15.7, with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale Surrounds - North has 283 active public transport stops. These include train and bus services. There are 25 individual routes operating in the area, providing a total of 258 weekly passenger trips.

Residents' access to transport is rated excellent, with an average distance of 165 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 36 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale Surrounds - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,203 people), compared to 48.9% across Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.8% of residents) and asthma (8.7%), while 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Rest of NSW.

The area has 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,061 people), which is higher than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Armidale Surrounds - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale Surrounds - North, in terms of cultural diversity as per the 2016 Census, had a population where 84.8% were Australian citizens, with 91.2% born in Australia and 95.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 65.8%, compared to 55.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.1%), English (33.1%) and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher than regional averages at 4.8% versus 5.7%, while Irish representation stood at 8.9% compared to the regional average of 9.5%.

Armidale Surrounds - North hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Armidale Surrounds - North's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Armidale Surrounds - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 10.5% to 13.2%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 9.8% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.1% to 12.2%. By 2041, Armidale Surrounds - North is projected to experience significant shifts in its age distribution. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 34%, adding 175 people and reaching a total of 686 from the current 510. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in population.