Gunnedah Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunnedah Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gunnedah Surrounds' population, as of August 2025, is approximately 4,565, reflecting a growth of 196 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.5% rise from the previous figure of 4,369. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 4,521 in June 2024 and an additional 46 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Gunnedah Surrounds' growth of 4.5% since 2021 exceeded the SA4 region's average growth rate of 4.1%, indicating it as a leading growth area in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to increase by approximately 513 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of around 10.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gunnedah Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gunnedah Surrounds has averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 32 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 6.9 new residents have moved into the area each year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a significant demand exceeding supply, which typically results in price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $354,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In this financial year, $2.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Relative to the Rest of NSW, Gunnedah Surrounds has significantly less development activity, with 69.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The area is also under the national average for development activity, indicating its established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. All new construction in the area has been standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 654 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Gunnedah Surrounds adding approximately 469 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Gunnedah Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 19 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Gunnedah Koala Sanctuary, Sawmill Business Centre Stage 2, Gunnedah Sports Precinct Master Plans, and Gunnedah Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gunnedah Surrounds places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gunnedah Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly strong in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.3% as of June 2025, compared to the Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. There were 2,739 residents employed with a workforce participation rate of 62.2%, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 56.4%. Major employment areas include agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and health care & social assistance. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notably high representation at 5.9 times the regional average, while health care & social assistance is lower at 9.5% compared to the regional average of 16.9%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, labour force grew by 3.9%, and unemployment fell by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, the Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with industry-specific projections suggesting potential local growth in Gunnedah Surrounds of approximately 4.6% over five years and 10.9% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Gunnedah Surrounds had a median taxpayer income of $50,583 and an average income of $63,275. These figures are slightly lower than the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 for Rest of NSW respectively. With a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022 based on Wage Price Index growth, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,962 (median) and $71,254 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Gunnedah Surrounds between the 37th and 40th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 30.8% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional average of 29.9%. Housing costs are manageable with 89.9% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Gunnedah Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gunnedah Surrounds' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 98.1% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 89.5% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gunnedah Surrounds stood at 44.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.1% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,500. The median weekly rent figure in Gunnedah Surrounds was $275, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gunnedah Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Gunnedah Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 15.5%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 30.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education. There are six schools operating within Gunnedah Surrounds, educating approximately 286 students. All these schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 6.3 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 16.5, leading many families to travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gunnedah Surrounds has 334 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 41 unique routes that collectively facilitate 407 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically residing approximately 324 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 58 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Gunnedah Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Gunnedah Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~2,337 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are asthma (9.6%) and arthritis (9.1%). Sixty-six point nine percent of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. Eighteen point eight percent of residents are aged 65 and over (858 people), lower than the 19.9% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Gunnedah Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gunnedah Surrounds, as per the 2016 Census, had a population with 88.4% being Australian citizens, 95.6% born in Australia, and 98.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 66.0%, compared to 63.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.2%), English (31.5%), and Irish (8.2%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 7.6% in Gunnedah Surrounds than the regional average of 9.4%. Scottish ancestry was also slightly higher at 7.5%, compared to 7.3% regionally, while South African ancestry was marginally higher at 0.3%, versus 0.2% regionally.

Gunnedah Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Gunnedah Surrounds is 40 years, which is slightly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median of 38. In comparison to Rest of NSW, the percentage of individuals aged 5-14 in Gunnedah Surrounds is notably higher at 14.1%, while those aged 75-84 are under-represented at 5.3%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population proportion of individuals aged 35 to 44 has increased from 11.4% to 12.8%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 10.8% to 11.9%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 14.6% to 12.3%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Gunnedah Surrounds. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand by 144 people (25%), growing from 579 to 724 individuals. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 cohort is expected to decrease by 95 people.