Gunnedah Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunnedah Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Gunnedah Surrounds's population is around 4,554 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 185 people (4.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,369 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,521 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 57 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Gunnedah Surrounds's 4.2% growth since the census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to increase by 513 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 10.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gunnedah Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gunnedah Surrounds has averaged around 6 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 32 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. At an average of 6.9 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $412,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $2.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Gunnedah Surrounds has significantly less development activity (69.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, new construction has been completely comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 654 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Gunnedah Surrounds adding 480 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Gunnedah Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Gunnedah Koala Sanctuary, Gunnedah Sports Precinct Master Plans, Sawmill Business Centre Stage 2, and Gunnedah Hospital Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Gunnedah Surrounds positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Gunnedah Surrounds possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, and an unemployment rate of just 1.7%. As of December 2025, 2,746 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.2% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (78.0% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 19.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and health care & social assistance. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 5.9 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 9.5% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 16.9%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 0.5% combined with employment decreasing by 0.6%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Gunnedah Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Gunnedah Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.6% over five years and 10.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Gunnedah Surrounds SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,091 with the average level standing at $64,357. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,795 (median) and $70,059 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Gunnedah Surrounds, between the 36th and 40th percentiles. The data shows 30.8% of the population (1,402 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 89.9% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 47th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Gunnedah Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Gunnedah Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.1% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Gunnedah Surrounds was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 44.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.1%) or rented (23.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $275, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Gunnedah Surrounds's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gunnedah Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.8% of all households, comprising 31.6% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Gunnedah Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (30.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 334 active transport stops operating within Gunnedah Surrounds, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 40 individual routes, collectively providing 368 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 323 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 19.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

The level of general health in Gunnedah Surrounds is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gunnedah Surrounds demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,331 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 9.6% and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 66.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (840 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW.

The latest Census data sees Gunnedah Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gunnedah Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.4% of its population being citizens, 95.6% born in Australia, and 98.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Gunnedah Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 66.0% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Gunnedah Surrounds are Australian, comprising 37.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 30.0%, English, comprising 31.5% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 7.6% of Gunnedah Surrounds (vs 4.6% regionally), Scottish at 7.5% (vs 8.0%) and South Australian at 0.3% (vs 0.2%).

Gunnedah Surrounds's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Gunnedah Surrounds is modestly under Regional NSW's average of 43 though slightly above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 5 - 14 cohort is notably over-represented (14.3% locally), while 75 - 84 year-olds are under-represented (4.9%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.4% to 13.0% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.8% to 12.2%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.6% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Gunnedah Surrounds. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, expanding by 135 people (23%) from 588 to 724. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 cohort is projected to decline by 99 people.