Gunnedah Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunnedah Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gunnedah Surrounds' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 4,578. This figure represents a growth of 209 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,369. The increase was inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,521 in June 2024 and an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Gunnedah Surrounds' growth rate of 4.8% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.4%. Natural growth contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to increase by approximately 513 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gunnedah Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gunnedah Surrounds has averaged approximately six new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 32 homes. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. This averages to around 6.9 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating significant demand exceeding supply, which typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $412,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development.

In the current financial year, $2.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, highlighting the area's residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Gunnedah Surrounds has significantly less development activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person, which usually strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. All new construction in the area has been standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 654 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Gunnedah Surrounds is projected to add 456 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Gunnedah Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of nineteen projects expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Gunnedah Koala Sanctuary, Gunnedah Sports Precinct Master Plans, Sawmill Business Centre Stage 2, and Gunnedah 1000 New Homes Strategic Plan, with the following list providing details on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gunnedah Surrounds places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gunnedah Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominently featuring manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. As of September 2025, 2,773 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% below the regional average. Workforce participation is high at 62.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Major employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and health care & social assistance.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with employment levels at 5.9 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance is lower at 9.5% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Some residents commute elsewhere for work. Over the past year, employment increased by 1.5%, matching labour force growth, keeping unemployment stable. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. In NSW as of 25-Nov-25, employment decreased by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gunnedah Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 4.6% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population changes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Gunnedah Surrounds SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $50,583 and an average level of $63,275. These figures are slightly lower than the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,962 (median) and $71,254 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Gunnedah Surrounds rank modestly between the 36th and 40th percentiles. Income analysis reveals 30.8% of the population, equivalent to 1,410 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 89.9% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 47th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Gunnedah Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gunnedah Surrounds' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 98.1% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Non-Metro NSW had 89.5% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gunnedah Surrounds was 44.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.1% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's $1,500. Median weekly rent in Gunnedah Surrounds was $275, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gunnedah Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4 people.

Gunnedah Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 9.5% and certificates for 30.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Gunnedah Surrounds indicates that there are currently 334 active transport stops in operation. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. The area is served by 41 individual routes which together facilitate 407 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 324 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are about 58 trips per day across all routes, resulting in roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Gunnedah Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Gunnedah Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is slightly lagging at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,343 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, impacting 9.6 and 9.1% of residents respectively. 66.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. As of the latest data (2016), 18.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (861 people), which is lower than the 19.9% in Rest of NSW. This aligns broadly with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Gunnedah Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gunnedah Surrounds had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.4% of its population being citizens, 95.6% born in Australia, and 98.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 66.0% of people, compared to 63.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.2%), English (31.5%), and Irish (8.2%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 7.6%, compared to the regional average of 9.4%. Scottish representation was also slightly higher at 7.5% versus 7.3%. South African representation was notably lower at 0.3% compared to the regional figure of 0.2%.

Gunnedah Surrounds's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Gunnedah Surrounds was 40 years old as of the last census, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median age of 38. The percentage of individuals aged 5-14 in Gunnedah Surrounds was notably higher at 14.1%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 75-84 were under-represented at 5.3%. Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the proportion of individuals aged 35-44 has grown from 11.4% to 12.8%, and those aged 15-24 increased from 10.8% to 11.9%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 55-64 has declined from 14.6% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Gunnedah Surrounds. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand by 142 people (25%), growing from 581 to 724 individuals. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age cohort is projected to decrease by 97 people.