Gunnedah Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunnedah Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to data compiled by AreaSearch, the population of Gunnedah Surrounds is estimated to be approximately 4,616 in May 2026. This represents an addition of 247 residents (5.7%) compared to the 2021 Census, which documented 4,369 individuals. This population shift is calculated utilizing the ABS estimated resident population of 4,611 in June 2025 alongside 61 validated new addresses identified after the Census. The local population density stands at 0.80 persons per square kilometer, indicating a low-density environment with substantial space per resident. The area's growth rate of 5.7% since the 2021 census paced ahead of both the broader SA4 region (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a key pocket of growth. This upward trajectory was chiefly propelled by net interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 51.3% of the overall population rise, though natural increase and overseas migration also registered positive gains.

Projections developed by the ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 using a 2022 baseline, are adopted for each SA2. For any areas lacking this coverage, state government projections released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are substituted. Projected cohort growth patterns are extended to cover the years 2032 through 2041. Based on these anticipated demographic trends, the area is set to experience population expansion slightly below the median of similar non-metropolitan locations nationwide, with the population projected to grow by 498 individuals by 2041 using current ERP figures, amounting to a cumulative increase of 10.7% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gunnedah Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Development tracking shows that Gunnedah Surrounds averages approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually, with a total of 32 homes authorized over the previous 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 3 approvals have been logged. With an average influx of 8.8 new residents for each completed home between FY-21 and FY-25, demand remains well ahead of supply, a dynamic that commonly exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies buyer competition, while new builds average an estimated construction cost of $412,000—a figure above typical regional benchmarks that indicates a focus on premium projects. Additionally, commercial building approvals have reached $2.2 million this financial year, emphasizing the predominantly residential focus of the local economy.

Compared against the Rest of NSW, residential construction activity in Gunnedah Surrounds is particularly quiet, registering 69.0% below the regional per capita benchmark. This constrained supply pipeline typically supports values and interest in existing stock. Activity levels also sit below national averages, reflecting the mature nature of the local market and pointing to possible planning constraints. Furthermore, recent residential approvals have consisted entirely of separate houses, preserving the low-density landscape and providing spacious options suited to family households. The ratio of 667 people in the area for every single residential approval highlights the calm pace of local development.

Based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch, Gunnedah Surrounds is projected to grow by 493 residents by 2041. If building rates do not accelerate from their current trajectory, the supply of new dwellings is likely to fall short of population requirements, which will probably heightening competition among purchasers and supporting upward price trends.

Gunnedah Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and major works are critical drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 current projects that are anticipated to influence the local area. Key initiatives include the Gunnedah Koala Sanctuary, the Gunnedah Sports Precinct Master Plans, the Sawmill Business Centre Stage 2, and the Gunnedah Hospital Redevelopment, with details on the most significant projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Gunnedah Surrounds well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

The local labor market features a diverse mix of blue-collar and white-collar occupations, supported by active industrial and manufacturing activities, and an unemployment rate of only 2.3%. As of March 2026, working residents numbered 2,719, with the unemployment rate tracking 1.8% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%. Labor force participation is also elevated, standing at 75.6% compared to the 60.6% recorded across Regional NSW. Results from the Census indicated that 19.3% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic containment measures.

Primary sources of employment for local residents are concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and health care & social assistance. The local economy displays a pronounced specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, employing workers at a rate 5.9 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance accounts for only 9.5% of local jobs, below the Regional NSW benchmark of 16.9%. Although there are local jobs available, comparison between the Census-derived working population and local job counts suggest a high proportion of residents travel outside the area to work.

An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that over the 12-month period, the local workforce contracted by 2.1% while total employment fell by 3.1%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 0.9%, the workforce contract by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Insights into future workforce requirements are provided by Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment projections from May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential changes. Nationally, employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though trends vary by sector. Adjusting these projections to the specific industry mix of Gunnedah Surrounds indicates local employment could grow by 4.6% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation that does not adjust for specific regional population shifts.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Tax statistics compiled by AreaSearch from the latest postcode-level ATO release for the 2023 financial year show that the Gunnedah Surrounds SA2 recorded a median taxpayer income of $53,091 and an average income of $64,357. These figures sit below national benchmarks and compare to median and average levels of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively across Regional NSW. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median of approximately $58,570 and an average of $70,999 as of March 2026. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and individual incomes are modest, placing between the 36th and 40th percentiles nationally. A segment of 30.8% of the population (1,421 individuals) earns within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly bracket, close to the regional rate of 29.9%. Local households retain 89.9% of their income after housing costs, though disposable income levels place in the 47th percentile and the area's SEIFA income index ranks in the 4th decile.

Gunnedah Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Residential options in Gunnedah Surrounds at the time of the latest Census consisted of 98.1% separate houses and 2.0% semi-detached dwellings, apartments, or other structures, compared to Regional NSW where separate houses made up 82.6% of stock and other dwellings accounted for 17.4%. Outright home ownership is notably high at 44.7% of households, with the remaining dwellings split between properties with a mortgage (32.1%) and rental properties (23.2%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,300, and the median weekly rent was $275, both tracking below the Regional NSW averages of $1,733 and $330. Nationally, local mortgage commitments are lower than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents remain well below the national benchmark of $375.

Gunnedah Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the largest share of local households at 74.8%, consisting of couples with children at 31.6%, couples without children at 31.9%, and single-parent homes at 9.9%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 25.2% of households, with lone person households representing 22.4% and group shared homes at 2.8%. The average household size is 2.6 residents, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Gunnedah Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Higher education outcomes present an area of need, with university graduation rates at 15.5%, which is below the statewide average of 32.2%. This creates opportunities for targeted local training programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.7% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Vocational and technical training is widely held, with 40.2% of residents aged 15 and over possessing vocational certificates or diplomas, including advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 30.7%.

School enrollment is high, with 31.5% of the local population actively participating in formal study. This student cohort includes 13.1% in primary school, 8.6% in high school, and 1.9% enrolled in higher education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport infrastructure consists of 334 train and bus stops across Gunnedah Surrounds. These stops are served by 40 routes, delivering a total of 368 scheduled passenger trips each week. Transport access is favorable, with residents living an average of 323 meters from their closest stop. As the area is mostly residential, many workers commute out of the district, with private vehicles remaining the main mode of travel at 90%, and 5% of residents walking to work. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 cars per household, which is higher than regional averages. Census data from 2021 shows that 19.3% of local workers worked from home, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

Service frequency averages 52 scheduled trips daily across the network, representing about 1 weekly trip for each individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the area.

Gunnedah Surrounds's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

General health indicators are positive for Gunnedah Surrounds, with mortality rates and medical diagnoses tracking close to national trends. The occurrence of major chronic diseases is low across the general population, though rates are higher than national averages among older, higher-risk cohorts. Private health insurance enrollment is relatively low, held by approximately 51% of residents (~2,363 people).

Asthma and arthritis are the most common conditions reported locally, affecting 9.6% and 9.1% of the population respectively, while 66.9% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age individuals show higher than average rates of chronic health issues. Residents aged 65 and over make up 19.3% of the local population (891 people), lower than the Regional NSW average of 23.4%, although this age group ranks lower nationally than the rest of the local community.

The latest Census data sees Gunnedah Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

The local population displays lower levels of cultural diversity, with citizens making up 88.4% of residents, 95.6% born in Australia, and 98.5% using only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, followed by 66.0% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

The most common parental ancestries reported are Australian at 37.2%, which is higher than the regional average of 30.0%, English at 31.5%, and Irish at 8.2%. Specific demographic patterns show Australian Aboriginal ancestry is represented at 7.6% (compared to 4.6% regionally), Scottish at 7.5% (compared to 8.0%), and South Australian at 0.3% (compared to 0.2%).

Gunnedah Surrounds's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age of local residents is 40 years, slightly under the Regional NSW median of 43 but just above the national average of 38. The 5 to 14 age group is over-represented locally at 13.8% compared to the regional average, while seniors aged 75 to 84 are under-represented at 5.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 10.8% to 12.3% of the population, and the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 11.4% to 12.7%, while the 55 to 64 group declined from 14.6% to 12.4%. Projections for 2041 suggest changes to the local age structure, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow by 135 people (23%) from 578 to 714, while the 65 to 74 cohort is expected to contract by 101 people.