Virginia (NT)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Virginia reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Virginia's population is estimated around 2,021 people. This reflects an increase of 210 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,811 people. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,005 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and additional validation of eight new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 61 persons per square kilometer for Virginia. Since the 2021 Census, Virginia's population has grown by 11.6%, exceeding the national average growth rate of 8.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.0% to overall population gains during recent periods in Virginia.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies age cohort-based growth rates provided by the ABS in its Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends forecast a significant increase in Virginia's top quartile statistical areas, with an expected rise of 523 persons to reach 2,544 people by 2041, marking a total increase of 26.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Virginia according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Virginia has seen approximately 8 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 40 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.6 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. New homes were built at an average construction cost value of $460,000 during this period.

This financial year, $272,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Virginia has seen slightly more development, with 16.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. However, development activity has moderated recently.

All new construction was comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is around 400 people. Virginia is projected to gain 535 residents by 2041, potentially leading to increased competition among buyers if current development rates do not keep pace with population growth, which could support stronger price growth.

Virginia has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Notable projects are Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Darwin Renewable Energy Hub, Hudson Creek Power Station, and Marine Industry Park. The following details the most relevant projects.

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Employment conditions in Virginia demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Virginia has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation).

As of June 2025, 1,201 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 0.4% below Greater Darwin's 3.0%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Leading employment industries include public administration & safety, construction, and health care & social assistance. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 9.2% compared to Greater Darwin's 14.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force by 2.7%, with unemployment essentially unchanged (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). By comparison, Greater Darwin recorded employment growth of 2.9% and labour force growth of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Virginia's local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Virginia's employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Virginia was $65,106 and average income was $75,662. In Greater Darwin, the median income was $65,522 with an average of $75,260. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated current incomes are approximately $72,925 (median) and $84,749 (average). The 2021 Census ranks Virginia's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 89th and 93rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution in Virginia shows 26.8% of residents earning over $4,000 annually, differing from broader area patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 range dominates at 36.7%. Economic strength is evident with 47.5% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting high consumer spending. Housing costs account for 13.9% of income, and residents rank in the 93rd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Virginia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Virginia's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.0% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Darwin metro's 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Virginia stood at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.4% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, significantly higher than the Darwin metro average of $2,250. The median weekly rent figure in Virginia was $460, compared to Darwin metro's $380. Nationally, Virginia's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $460.

Virginia features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 78.6% of all households, including 37.3% couples with children, 31.5% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 21.4%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Virginia demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 46.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 34.5%. Current educational participation stands at 30.5%, including 10.8% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to lie outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring residents to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 18 active stops operating in Virginia, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 35 routes, facilitating 2,588 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents located an average of 861 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 369 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 143 weekly trips per stop.

Virginia's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Virginia, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 57%, comprising around 1,145 individuals. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 73.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.8% in Greater Darwin. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 16.1% (325 people), compared to Greater Darwin's 13.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Virginia ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Virginia had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 89.0% of its population being citizens and 85.7% born in Australia. The majority spoke English only at home, at 93.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 38.9% of Virginia's population.

Buddhism, however, was overrepresented compared to Greater Darwin, making up 1.1% versus 2.2%. In terms of ancestry, Australian (32.6%), English (28.0%), and Irish (7.0%) were the top three groups represented in Virginia. Notable differences existed for certain ethnicities: New Zealand was overrepresented at 1.0%, Australian Aboriginal at 4.4% versus 5.8%, and German at 4.4% compared to 4.0%.

Virginia hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Virginia's median age of 43 is significantly higher than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Darwin's average, Virginia has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort at 16.7% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.9%. This concentration of the 55-64 cohort is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 2.6% to 3.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.8% to 13.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 18.0% to 15.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Virginia's age profile will evolve significantly. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to expand by 136 people (43%) from 319 to 456. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 9% (8 people).