Gray (NT)

Gray is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Gray (NT) is estimated at around 3,387 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 245 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,142. The current estimate, made by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date, shows a population density ratio of 2,258 persons per square kilometer. This growth rate of 7.8% positions Gray competitively with other SA4 regions, being within 1.8 percentage points of the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, to estimate future population trends.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). By 2041, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb of Gray, with an expected expansion of 687 persons reflecting a total increase of 20.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Gray is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Gray has had minimal development with just 2 approvals between January 2016 and December 2020. This indicates a mature, established suburb where available land for new construction is limited. For buyers, this scarcity of new housing stock typically supports property values and means competition may be primarily among existing homes.

Compared to Greater Darwin, Gray shows substantially reduced construction activity during the same period. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes in the area. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the suburb's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints.

Gray has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 14thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly affect an area's performance. In total, zero projects were identified by AreaSearch that could impact this region. Notable projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

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Employment drivers in Gray are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Gray features a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, reflecting essential services sectors well. The unemployment rate is 12.7%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,637 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 9.6%, higher than Greater Darwin's 3.1%.

Workforce participation is lower at 70.3% compared to Greater Darwin's 76.0%. Census responses show that only 3.1% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Retail trade is notably concentrated with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

In contrast, public administration & safety employs only 15.7% of local workers, below Greater Darwin's 19.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.8%, alongside labour force growth of 1.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Darwin recorded employment growth of 1.9% and labour force growth of 1.9%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Gray. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Gray's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that income in Gray is slightly lower than average nationally. The median income stands at $60,378 with an average of $66,723. This contrasts with Greater Darwin's figures of a median income of $66,956 and an average of $77,199. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,474 (median) and $72,354 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 63rd percentile ($877 weekly), while household income sits at the 34th percentile. Distribution data shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 33.8% of residents (1,144 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Gray displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Gray's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.8% houses and 40.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Darwin metro's structure of 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gray was at 12.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (35.6%) or rented (52.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gray was $1,725, lower than Darwin metro's average of $2,100 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Gray was recorded at $300, substantially below Darwin metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Gray features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.6% of all households, including 23.4% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households at 4.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Gray fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 14.8% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.8% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 13 operational stops within Gray, offering mixed bus services. These stops cater to 23 unique routes, facilitating 1,422 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents typically situated 163 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode at 90%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, only 3.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 203 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 109 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gray is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Gray faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% of the total population (~1,801 people), compared to 57.8% in Greater Darwin. The most common conditions are asthma (7.6%) and arthritis (6.7%). A total of 72.5% reported no medical ailments, compared to 77.1% in Greater Darwin. Under-65 residents have better health outcomes than average. There are 365 people aged 65 and over (10.8% of the population). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings roughly matching those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gray was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gray was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 24.1% of its population born overseas and 19.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gray, comprising 40.6% of people there. Buddhism's representation stands out at 3.3%, compared to the regional average of 3.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (22.9%), English (22.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 7.0%. Notably, Filipino representation is overrepresented at 4.4%, compared to the regional average of 3.8%, while Vietnamese stands at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and Maori remains at 0.6%.

Gray hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Gray's median age in 2021 was 34 years, matching Greater Darwin's average but lower than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Gray had a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) and fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.0%). Between 2021 and the present day, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 12.2% to 13.1%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 15.7% to 14.2%, and those aged 25-34 dropped from 15.2% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Gray's age profile. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to grow steadily, increasing by 142 people (29%) from 487 to 630.