Gray (NT)

Gray is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the estimated population of Gray's suburb is around 3,387 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 245 people (7.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,142 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,387, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,258 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Gray's suburb had a growth rate of 7.8% since census, positioning it within 1.1 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national statistical areas is projected for Gray's suburb, with the area expected to expand by 687 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 20.3% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Gray is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows virtually no dwelling approvals in Gray recently. Only an estimated 2 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with none so far in FY26.

The population has declined in recent years, but development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, benefiting buyers. This year, $34,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Gray's construction activity is substantially reduced, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, suggesting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Gray has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Key projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with the following list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment drivers in Gray are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Gray has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 12.1% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. The area's unemployment rate is 9.0% higher than Greater Darwin's 3.0%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags behind Greater Darwin, with a rate of 60.1% compared to Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Top employment industries among residents are public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Retail trade is particularly strong, employing 1.4 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety employs only 15.7% of local workers, below Greater Darwin's 19.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, while the labour force grew by 2.9%, causing unemployment to rise slightly. In comparison, Greater Darwin recorded similar employment and labour force growth but saw a marginal decrease in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest overall national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gray's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2022 shows median income in Gray is $60,378 and average income is $66,723. This contrasts with Greater Darwin where median income is $65,522 and average income is $75,260. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% from financial year ending June 30, 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $67,629 (median) and $74,736 (average). From the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, personal income ranks at the 63rd percentile ($877 weekly), while household income is at the 34th percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 33.8% of locals (1,144 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Gray displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gray's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 59.8% houses and 40.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Darwin metro's figures of 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gray stood at 12.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.6% and rented ones at 52.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,725, lower than Darwin metro's average of $2,037. Weekly rent median figure in Gray was $300, compared to Darwin metro's $400. Nationally, Gray's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Gray features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.6% of all households, including 23.4% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.4%, consisting of 32.5% lone person households and 4.3% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Gray fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 33.0%. Educational participation is high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 14.8% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Two schools serve the area: Gray Primary School and Good Shepherd Lutheran College - Palmerston Campus, educating a total of 263 students. Both focus exclusively on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. The area has 7.8 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 14.7. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Gray indicates that there are currently 13 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 23 individual routes providing service to the area. Collectively, these routes facilitate 1,422 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Gray is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 163 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 203 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 109 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gray is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gray demonstrates above-average health outcomes with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~1,801 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but slightly lower than Greater Darwin's 56.4%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.6 and 6.7% of residents respectively, while 72.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.6% across Greater Darwin. The area has 10.6% of residents aged 65 and over (359 people), which is higher than the 7.5% in Greater Darwin. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Gray was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gray was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 24.1% of its population born overseas and 19.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Gray, comprising 40.6% of people. However, Buddhism has a higher representation in Gray at 3.3%, compared to 2.3% across Greater Darwin.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (22.9%), English (22.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 9.1%. Notably, Filipino (4.4%) and Vietnamese (1.0%) populations in Gray exceed their respective regional averages of 4.8% and 0.7%, while Maori representation is slightly lower at 0.6% compared to the region's 0.7%.

Gray hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Gray's median age is 34 years, matching the Greater Darwin average of 34 but lower than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Gray has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) and fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.2%). Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 12.2% to 13.0%, while the percentage of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 15.7% to 14.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Gray's age profile, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to grow steadily, increasing by 132 people (27%) from 497 to 630.