Moulden

An assessment of population growth drivers in Moulden reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Analysis of ABS population updates for the wider region and new address datasets verified by AreaSearch indicates that the suburb of Moulden has a population of approximately 3,268 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 215 people (7.0%) compared to the 2021 Census, which documented 3,053 residents. This adjustment is derived from the estimated resident population of 3,268 calculated by AreaSearch using the ABS June 2025 ERP release alongside post-census address checks. The suburb of Moulden displays a density of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the typical figure recorded across national locations evaluated by AreaSearch. The 7.0% post-census growth rate of the suburb of Moulden is within 2.3 percentage points of the national benchmark (9.3%), indicating competitive growth dynamics. Natural expansion was the primary driver of this increase, accounting for roughly 79.0% of the overall population gains in recent times.

AreaSearch utilizes projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for individual SA2 districts published in 2024 using 2022 as the base. For locations lacking these figures, and to model growth beyond 2032, cohort-specific growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections (published in 2023, referencing 2022 data) are applied. Looking at future demographic trends, the suburb of Moulden is projected to experience population growth above the national median, with cumulative SA2 projections indicating a rise of 511 individuals by 2041, representing a total expansion of 15.6% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Moulden according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Property development in the area has been very quiet, with only two planning permits granted over a five-year timeframe. This indicates that the locality is mostly fully developed, with very little unoccupied land available for construction. Established neighborhoods of this type frequently experience stable demand for existing homes because purchasers have few opportunities to buy newly built properties.

Construction activity is considerably lower in this locality than in Greater Darwin. This constrained level of new completions generally bolsters demand and preserves property values for existing homes. Building volumes are similarly lower than the national average, highlighting the mature state of the local market and suggesting potential constraints on new construction.

Moulden has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 15thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and urban planning changes can significantly influence property markets. There are no projects identified by AreaSearch that are expected to impact the local area. Key regional projects include the Darwin to Palmerston Mass Transit Corridor, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with details provided on those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Moulden face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

The local workforce exhibits a balanced mix of professional and industrial roles, with strong representation in essential services, alongside an unemployment rate of 15.3%, according to aggregated district data compiled by AreaSearch. By March 2026, there were 1,354 working residents, and the unemployment rate was 11.9% higher than the 3.5% recorded in Greater Darwin, indicating potential for improvement. Furthermore, labor force participation is lower at 65.0% compared to 72.7% in Greater Darwin. Census records show that a minor 3.9% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure was likely influenced by pandemic-related restrictions.

The leading employment sectors for local residents are public administration & safety, construction, and health care & social assistance. The local workforce has a notable concentration in construction, with employment levels reaching 1.4 times the average for the region. Conversely, health care & social assistance accounts for only 10.4% of local employment, which is below the 14.2% average for Greater Darwin. The locality is primarily residential and appears to offer few jobs within its borders, as shown by the comparison between working residents and locally based jobs in the Census.

According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader local areas, the labor force expanded by 0.8% during the 12 months leading to March 2026, while the number of employed residents fell by 2.5%, resulting in a 2.8 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. In comparison, Greater Darwin recorded a 0.4% increase in employment, a 0.8% rise in the labor force, and a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts from May-25 provide context for future employment demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been matched to the local industry mix to project future employment trajectories. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sectors will experience different rates of growth. Applying these sector projections to the local workforce structure indicates that employment should rise by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighted extrapolation that does not incorporate localized population growth forecasts.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, local taxpayers have a median income of $58,588 and an average income of $64,744. These figures sit below the national average and contrast with Greater Darwin, which has a median of $66,956 and an average of $77,199. Adjusting for WPI growth of 9.41% since the 2023 financial year, estimated figures as of March 2026 would be roughly $64,101 for the median and $70,836 for the average. In the 2021 Census, individual weekly income was positioned at the 59th percentile ($851 weekly), while household weekly income was at the 36th percentile. In terms of income distribution, the most common bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, which accounts for 32.1% of residents (1,049 people), aligning with the wider regional trend of 36.7% in this band. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only 80.4% of their income, which puts the area in the 32nd percentile.

Moulden is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Residential property types in the area at the time of the last Census consisted of 80.3% separate houses and 19.7% alternative housing options like duplexes, apartments, or other structures, compared to 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings in the Darwin metro area. The rate of home ownership was lower than the metropolitan average at 11.1%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (43.0%) or renting (45.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,632 was well below the Darwin metro average, while the median weekly rent was $295, compared to metropolitan averages of $2,100 and $385 respectively. On a national level, mortgage repayments are considerably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also well below the national figure of $375.

Moulden has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 68.6%, consisting of couples with children (28.3%), couples without children (17.3%), and single parents (21.1%). The remaining 31.4% are non-family households, with lone person households representing 28.6% and group households making up 3.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 individuals is slightly above the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Moulden faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The community has lower rates of higher education, with university qualifications held by 11.5% of the population, which is below the SA4 regional average of 31.3%. This presents an opportunity for targeted educational support. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 8.2%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.8% and postgraduate qualifications at 1.5%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 46.5% of residents aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, including advanced diplomas (7.7%) and certificates (38.8%).

Enrolment rates in education are high, with 40.8% of the population participating in formal study. This student cohort includes 16.8% in primary school, 12.6% in high school, and 4.4% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in the suburb of Moulden include seven active bus stops. These stops are served by 22 distinct routes, which provide a total of 1,037 passenger trips each week. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 235 meters from their nearest stop. The area is mainly residential, with most working residents commuting to other areas, and private cars are the primary mode of travel for 92% of commuters. Households own an average of 1.3 vehicles, which is below the regional average. A low 3.9% of residents worked from home during the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Services run at an average frequency of 148 trips per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 148 weekly trips per bus stop.

Health performance in Moulden is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

The local population faces notable health challenges, according to AreaSearch indicators for mortality and chronic illness. High rates of common medical conditions are seen in both younger and older cohorts, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is slightly above the SA2 average at approximately 52% of the population (~1,712 people), compared to 57.8% in Greater Darwin.

Asthma and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues in the area, affecting 8.3% and 7.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 69.8% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. The working-age population shows higher-than-average rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and older make up 12.3% of the population (401 people), which is higher than the Greater Darwin average of 11.0%. Health indicators for these senior residents show challenges, with national rankings higher than those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Moulden records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity indicators are similar to the regional averages, with citizens making up 78.3% of the population, 84.2% of residents born in Australia, and 86.3% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the most common religion, followed by 44.3% of residents. The most distinct religious overrepresentation is Judaism, which accounts for 0.1% of the population, matching the 0.1% average for Greater Darwin.

The top parental ancestries represented in the local area are Australian at 24.0%, English at 22.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 18.3%, which is higher than the regional average of 7.0%. There are also differences in other groups, with Filipino residents representing 3.2% of the local population (compared to 3.8% across the region), Spanish at 0.6% (compared to 0.4%), and Maori at 0.9% (compared to 0.6%).

Moulden's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age of 33 years is similar to the Greater Darwin average of 34 and younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the wider Darwin area, there is a higher proportion of children aged 5 - 14 (16.6%) but fewer young adults aged 25 - 34 (11.8%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age bracket has increased from 2.3% to 3.9% of the population, and the 35 to 44 cohort has grown from 14.9% to 16.4%. In contrast, the 25 to 34 age bracket has declined from 13.6% to 11.8%, and the 5 to 14 cohort fell from 17.7% to 16.6%. Demographic projections suggest the age profile will change by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow by 116 people (28%) from 415 to 532, while the 0 to 4 group is projected to grow by 4% (11 people).