Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Bakewell's estimated population is around 3,350 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 259 people (8.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,345 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in Jun 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,537 persons per square kilometer, placing Bakewell in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bakewell's 8.4% growth since census positions it within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected for Bakewell, with the suburb expected to expand by 814 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 24.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Bakewell shows around 2 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 14 homes were approved. No dwellings have been approved so far in FY-26.

On average, 5.4 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed over these years. This supply lagging demand indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $358,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, there have been $34,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting Bakewell's residential nature. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell shows substantially reduced construction, 79.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods.

Nationally, Bakewell reflects market maturity and possible development constraints, with recent development comprised entirely of medium and high-density housing. This shift offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers, changing from the current housing mix of 54.0% houses. Bakewell has approximately 476 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections show Bakewell adding 809 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this region. Major initiatives include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with details on most relevant ones provided below.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Bakewell performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 1.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. Bakewell's unemployment rate, at 1.1%, is below Greater Darwin's rate of 3.0%. Workforce participation in Bakewell is high at 75.8% compared to Greater Darwin's 69.7%.

Employment among residents is concentrated in public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Notably, retail trade employment levels are at 1.2 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance employs only 11.2% of local workers, below Greater Darwin's 14.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% and labour force increased by 2.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Darwin where employment grew by 2.9%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment fell marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Bakewell. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years. This is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Bakewell had a median taxpayer income of $67,199 and an average of $72,326 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is high nationally compared to Greater Darwin's median income of $65,522 and average income of $75,260. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% would be approximately $75,270 (median) and $81,012 (average). According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings at the 85th percentile nationally were $1,104 weekly. In Bakewell, the income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 47.1% of residents (1,577 people), similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represented 36.7%. High housing costs consumed 17.9% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bakewell, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings. In Darwin metro, it was recorded as 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bakewell stood at 10.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.5% and rented ones at 46.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,742, compared to Darwin metro's $2,037. The median weekly rent figure in Bakewell was recorded at $380, while it was $400 in Darwin metro. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.9% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.6% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Bakewell Primary School serves the area, enrolling 653 students as of a specific date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (19.5 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.7), indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are connected by twenty-three distinct routes, facilitating a total of 1,144 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 213 meters, indicating good accessibility.

On average, there are 163 daily trips across all routes, translating to approximately 190 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bakewell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Bakewell's health outcomes show notable results, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~1,854 people) have private health cover, indicating a high rate compared to other areas. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.7 and 6.2% of residents respectively. A total of 76.2% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Darwin average of 76.6%. Bakewell has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 6.3% (211 people), compared to Greater Darwin's 7.5%.

Bakewell was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 25.0% born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bakewell, making up 41.3% of its population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented, comprising 2.4%, compared to 2.6% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). Notably, Filipino representation is higher at 5.6% in Bakewell versus 4.8% regionally. Australian Aboriginal representation is also slightly higher at 9.4%, compared to 9.1%. New Zealand representation stands at 0.8%, marginally higher than the regional average of 0.7%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell has a median age of 32, which is slightly younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.8%). Between 2021 and the present day, the proportion of Bakewell's population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.0% to 13.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 14.0% to 11.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Bakewell's age structure. The number of residents aged 45-54 is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 157 people (40%) from 391 to 549.