Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Bakewell is around 3,347. This reflects an increase of 256 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091 people. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,535 persons per square kilometer, placing Bakewell in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 8.3% growth since census is within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (9.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 814 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 24.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bakewell has experienced around 2 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Approximately 14 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with one additional approval so far in FY-26. On average, about 5.4 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed during these years.

This indicates that supply is substantially lagging demand, which typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $358,000. In the current financial year, $244,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 79.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent development in Bakewell has been entirely comprised of attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 54.0% houses. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Bakewell indicates a mature market with around 476 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Bakewell will gain approximately 812 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 14thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Bakewell rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of September 2025, there are 2,046 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Darwin's rate of 3.1%.

Workforce participation is high at 81.7%, compared to Greater Darwin's 76.0%. According to Census responses, only 3.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Retail trade has particularly high employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 11.2% of local workers, below Greater Darwin's 14.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities due to its predominantly residential nature. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, labour force grew by 1.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). In contrast, Greater Darwin saw employment grow by 1.9% and labour force expand by 1.9%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate potential future demand within Bakewell. These projections estimate that national employment will increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bakewell had a median taxpayer income of $67,199 and an average income of $72,326 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than the national average, contrasting with Greater Darwin's median income of $66,956 and average income of $77,199. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $72,871 (median) and $78,430 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, individual earnings stood out at the 85th percentile nationally with a weekly income of $1,104. Income analysis revealed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 47.1% of residents (1,576 people). High housing costs consumed 17.9% of income, but strong earnings still placed disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Bakewell, as per the latest Census evaluation, 54.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 45.5% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This differs from Darwin metro's composition, which was 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bakewell stood at 10.4%, lower than Darwin metro's rate. The majority of dwellings were mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bakewell was $1,742, below the Darwin metro average of $2,100. Weekly rent median was $380, compared to Darwin metro's $385. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.9% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.6% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six operational public transport stops, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 24 unique routes, facilitating a total of 1,146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents residing an average of 213 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, Bakewell sees most residents commuting outward, with cars being the prevalent mode at 92%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 3.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Daily service frequency averages 163 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 191 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bakewell is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bakewell faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (around 1,852 people), compared to 57.8% across Greater Darwin. Mental health issues and asthma were found to be the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 7.7 and 6.2% of residents respectively. Around 76.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 6.4% of residents aged 65 and over (214 people), which is lower than the 10.8% in Greater Darwin. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 25.0% born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bakewell, accounting for 41.3%. Hinduism was overrepresented compared to Greater Darwin, comprising 2.4% of Bakewell's population versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). Notably, Filipino (5.6%) and Australian Aboriginal (9.4%) were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 3.8% and 7.0%, respectively. New Zealand ancestry was also slightly higher at 0.8%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell's median age is 31, which is slightly below Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly younger than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 5-14 years are notably prominent at 15.9%, while the 65-74 age group is relatively smaller at 3.8% compared to Greater Darwin. Post-2021 Census data reveals an increase in the 15-24 age group from 12.0% to 14.0% of Bakewell's population, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Bakewell is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 160 people (41%), increasing from 388 to 549.