Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bakewell's population, as of Nov 2025, is estimated at around 3,347 based on ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch. This reflects an increase of 256 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091 people in the Bakewell statistical area (Lv2). The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,345 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,535 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bakewell's 8.3% growth since census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (9.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected for Bakewell. The area is expected to expand by 814 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 24.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Bakewell shows approximately 2 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 14 homes were approved, with one more approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 5.4 new residents arriving annually for each dwelling constructed during these years.

However, supply is significantly lagging demand, leading to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are being constructed at an average expected cost of $358,000. In the current financial year, $244,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has seen significantly reduced construction activity, with 79.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply supports stronger demand and values for established properties, although construction activity has recently intensified. Nationally, Bakewell's construction levels are also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development in Bakewell has been entirely comprised of attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This shift represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 54.0% houses. This trend likely reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Bakewell's population growth is expected to add around 812 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Bakewell has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes in the area were identified by AreaSearch. Key projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park.

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Employment conditions in Bakewell rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.1%, lower than the Greater Darwin rate of 3.1%.

Over the past year, ending September 2025, employment grew by an estimated 1.8%. The area's workforce participation rate is 75.8%, higher than Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Key industries for Bakewell residents are public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Notably, retail trade employs 1.2 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 11.2% of local workers, below Greater Darwin's 14.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. In the wider area, over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, labour force by 1.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This compares to Greater Darwin where employment grew by 1.9% and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NT employment contracted by 1.13% (losing 4,100 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.4%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts for Bakewell, based on May-25 projections mapped against local employment profile, suggest local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bakewell shows a median taxpayer income of $67,199 and an average of $72,326 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than national averages, contrasting with Greater Darwin's median income of $66,956 and average income of $77,199. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $72,871 (median) and $78,430 (average). According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings at the 85th percentile nationally were $1,104 weekly. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates Bakewell with 47.1% of residents (1,576 people), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 36.7%. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bakewell, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28th August 2016, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Darwin metro's dwelling structure of 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings at the same Census date. In Bakewell, home ownership stood at 10.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.5% and rented dwellings at 46.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bakewell was $1,742 as of this date, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380. In comparison, Darwin metro's median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037 and median weekly rent was $400 during the same period. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 2016, while rents in Bakewell exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, consisting of 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 11.0% and certificates for 34.6%. Educational participation is high at 35.2%, including 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows six active stops operating in Bakewell, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 24 routes, together facilitating 1,146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 213 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 163 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 191 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bakewell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Bakewell's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger cohorts having particularly low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~1,852 people) of Bakewell's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (7.7%) and asthma (6.2%), while 76.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 76.6% in Greater Darwin. Bakewell has 6.3% (210 people) of its population aged 65 and over, lower than the 7.5% in Greater Darwin.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population was found to be more culturally diverse compared to most local markets, with 25.0% born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bakewell, making up 41.3% of its population. However, Hinduism showed an overrepresentation, comprising 2.4% compared to the regional average of 2.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). There were notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Filipino was overrepresented at 5.6% compared to the regional average of 4.8%, Australian Aboriginal was at 9.4% versus 9.1%, and New Zealand was at 0.8% compared to 0.7%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell has a median age of 32, which is slightly younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.8%). Between 2021 and the present day, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has grown from 12.0% to 13.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 14.0% to 11.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Bakewell's age structure. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 157 people (40%) from 391 to 549.