Durack - Marlow Lagoon

Population growth drivers in Durack - Marlow Lagoon are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's population was around 4,885 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 384 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,501 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,883 in June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 416 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Durack - Marlow Lagoon demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 64.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applied growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Demographic trends projected an above median population growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Durack - Marlow Lagoon expected to expand by 896 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 18.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Durack - Marlow Lagoon according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has recorded approximately 9 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 49 homes. In FY-26 so far, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling accommodates around 2.3 new residents per year over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), reflecting strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $300,000.

This financial year has seen $1.1 million in commercial development approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Durack - Marlow Lagoon shows significantly reduced construction activity (50.0% below the regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity, though it remains below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 38.0% standalone homes and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a trend towards denser development to cater to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (96.0%). The estimated population density is approximately 347 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts suggest Durack - Marlow Lagoon will gain around 894 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 5thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact this region. Notable projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with the following details focusing on those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Durack - Marlow Lagoon rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of September 2025. This is lower than Greater Darwin's rate of 3.1%. The area had employment growth of 1.7% over the past year.

As of September 2025, there are 3,027 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%. Workforce participation is high at 82.1%, compared to Greater Darwin's 76.0%. Only 5.0% of residents work from home. The key industries of employment among residents are public administration & safety, construction, and health care & social assistance.

Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.4% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, while labour force increased by 1.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Durack - Marlow Lagoon's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Durack - Marlow Lagoon SA2 has higher than average national incomes. The median income is $66,011 and the average income stands at $73,114. In contrast, Greater Darwin's figures show a median income of $66,956 and an average income of $77,199. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $71,582 (median) and $79,285 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that Durack - Marlow Lagoon ranks highly nationally for household, family, and personal incomes, between the 92nd and 94th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 41.2% of locals (2,012 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly income category, consistent with broader regional trends at 36.7%. Notably, 39.6% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting areas of prosperity that stimulate local economic activity. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Durack - Marlow Lagoon dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Darwin metro's 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Durack - Marlow Lagoon stood at 13.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.1% and rented ones at 41.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Darwin metro's average of $2,100. Median weekly rent in the area was $500, compared to Darwin metro's $385. Nationally, Durack - Marlow Lagoon's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 42.0% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 4.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Durack - Marlow Lagoon exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Durack - Marlow Lagoon trail region, 25.6% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 regional average of 31.3%. The most common educational qualification is a bachelor degree, held by 16.9% of residents. Postgraduate qualifications are held by 5.5%, while graduate diplomas account for 3.2%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications.

Advanced diplomas are held by 12.3%, and certificates by 30.0%. Educational participation is high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has 19 active public transport stops. These are served by 36 bus routes, offering 1,962 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 288 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Cars are the dominant mode of transport, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

Only 5.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census). There are approximately 280 daily trips across all routes, resulting in about 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Durack-Marlow Lagoon. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,706 people), compared to 57.8% across Greater Darwin. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.8 and 6.2% of residents respectively. 77.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 10.0% of residents aged 65 and over (487 people). Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Durack - Marlow Lagoon was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.9% of its population born overseas and 17.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Durack-Marlow Lagoon, comprising 45.2% of its population. Hinduism, however, is overrepresented compared to Greater Darwin, making up 2.5% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.7%), English (23.3%), and Other (9.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Filipino is slightly overrepresented at 3.9%, Maori at 1.0%, and Australian Aboriginal is underrepresented at 4.5% compared to regional figures of 3.8%, 0.6%, and 7.0% respectively.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a median age of 32, which is slightly lower than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and substantially below Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (16.3%). Between 2021 and the present, the population aged 65-74 has increased from 5.0% to 6.6%, while the 55-64 age group has risen from 9.6% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.1% to 11.0%, and the 25-34 age group has decreased from 18.1% to 16.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Durack-Marlow Lagoon's age structure. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 185 people (57%), from 323 to 509. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow more modestly, with an increase of 3% adding only 11 residents.