Durack - Marlow Lagoon

Population growth drivers in Durack - Marlow Lagoon are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Durack-Marlow Lagoon's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 5,073 by May 2026. This figure represents a rise of 572 individuals (12.7%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,501. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: an ERP of 5,073 in June 2025 and one validated new address post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 432 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person for further development. Durack-Marlow Lagoon's growth rate since the 2021 Census (12.7%) surpassed the national average (9.3%), positioning it as a regional growth leader. Natural growth accounted for approximately 55.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies age cohort-based growth rates provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above-median growth for analysed statistical areas, with Durack-Marlow Lagoon expected to increase by 819 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.1% over the 16-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Durack - Marlow Lagoon according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Durack - Marlow Lagoon averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, with a total of 49 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. In FY26, up to 25 dwellings have been approved so far. On average, about 2.3 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed during these five years.

This robust demand supports property values, with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost of $300,000. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $1.1 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Greater Darwin, Durack - Marlow Lagoon has roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 49th percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, driving interest in existing dwellings. However, development activity has picked up recently. Recent construction comprises 38% detached houses and 62% attached dwellings, a shift from the area's current housing composition of 96% houses.

This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The area had an estimated population of 347 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Durack - Marlow Lagoon is projected to gain 819 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 5thth percentile nationally

Major infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the region: Darwin to Palmerston Mass Transit Corridor and Hudson Creek Power Station. Other notable projects include Marine Industry Park and Darwin Corporate Park. The following details projects likely to have the greatest relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Durack - Marlow Lagoon performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Durack - Marlow Lagoon had an unemployment rate of 1.3% in December 2025, with estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year. This is lower than Greater Darwin's unemployment rate of 3.1%. Workforce participation was higher at 78.8%, compared to Greater Darwin's 72.5%.

Only 5.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment sectors included public administration & safety, construction, and health care & social assistance. The area had a high concentration in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance had limited presence at 10.4%, compared to the regional average of 14.2%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 1.2% and labour force by 1.1%, keeping unemployment broadly stable. Greater Darwin recorded similar growth but with a marginal fall in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, covering May-25 for five and ten-year periods, projected national growth of 6.6% and 13.7%. Applying these projections to Durack - Marlow Lagoon's employment mix suggested local growth should be around 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Durack - Marlow Lagoon SA2 had higher income levels than the national average according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $66,011 and the average income stood at $73,114. In comparison, Greater Darwin's figures were $66,956 and $77,199 respectively. Based on a 9.41% growth in wages since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $72,223 (median) and $79,994 (average). Census 2021 data showed Durack - Marlow Lagoon's household, family, and personal incomes ranked highly nationally, between the 92nd and 94th percentiles. Income distribution revealed that 41.2% of the population fell within the $1,500-$2,999 range, consistent with broader regional trends at 36.7%. The substantial proportion of high earners (39.6% above $3,000/week) indicated strong economic capacity in the suburb. High housing costs consumed 16.8% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 90th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Darwin metro's 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Durack - Marlow Lagoon stood at 13.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.1% and rented ones at 41.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Darwin metro's average of $2,100. The median weekly rent figure was $500, higher than Darwin metro's $385. Nationally, Durack - Marlow Lagoon's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 42.0% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Durack - Marlow Lagoon exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Durack - Marlow Lagoon trail residents aged 15+ have 25.6% holding university degrees, compared to SA4 region's 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.3%, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 30.0%. Educational participation is high, with 33.1% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (12.5%), secondary (7.8%), tertiary (5.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Durack-Marlow Lagoon shows 19 active public transport stops, all bus services. These stops are served by 36 routes, offering a total of 1962 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 288 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

Only 5% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 280 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 103 weekly trips per stop.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Durack-Marlow Lagoon based on AreaSearch's assessment conducted between February and April 2022. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be very low across all age groups, with a high rate of private health cover at approximately 55% of the total population (around 2810 people), compared to 57.8% across Greater Darwin.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.8% and 6.2% of residents respectively, while 77.9% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. Working-age residents showed notably healthy outcomes with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 9.6% of residents aged 65 and over (487 people), lower than the 11.0% in Greater Darwin. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, aligning with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Durack - Marlow Lagoon was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Durack-Marlow Lagoon, as per data collected in June 2021, exhibited a higher degree of cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Overseas-born residents comprised 24.9% of the population, while those speaking languages other than English at home constituted 17.5%. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 45.2% of people identifying as such.

However, Hinduism showed a notable overrepresentation at 2.5%, compared to the regional average of 4.2%. Regarding ancestry, Australians made up 26.7%, English residents accounted for 23.3%, and those identifying as 'Other' comprised 9.4% of the population. Some ethnic groups showed significant variations: Filipino residents were overrepresented at 3.9% (regional average was 3.8%), Maori residents stood at 1.0% (against a regional average of 0.6%), and Australian Aboriginal residents constituted 4.5%, which is lower than the regional average of 7.0%.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a median age of 32, which is younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a higher concentration of 0-4 residents at 8.4%, but fewer 15-24 year-olds at 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group grew from 9.6% to 11.1% of the population, while the 65-74 cohort increased from 5.0% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 18.1% to 16.4%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Durack-Marlow Lagoon's age structure. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 180 people (55%), from 329 to 510. The 0-4 group shows more modest growth at 1%, adding only 6 residents.