Durack - Marlow Lagoon
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Durack - Marlow Lagoon are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's population was 4,888 as of November 2025, an increase of 387 people from the 2021 Census figure of 4,501. This change is inferred from ABS estimates: 4,883 in June 2024 and one validated new address since the Census date. The population density was 417 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade (2015-2025), Durack - Marlow Lagoon's compound annual growth rate was 1.3%, outpacing its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.2% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above median growth for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, Durack - Marlow Lagoon's population is expected to increase by 896 persons, recording a gain of 18.2% over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Durack - Marlow Lagoon according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Durack - Marlow Lagoon averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 49 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 12 approved in FY26 so far. On average, around 2.3 people moved to the area each year for every new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $300,000. In comparison to Greater Darwin, Durack - Marlow Lagoon has shown significantly reduced construction activity, with 50% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although development activity has increased in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 38% detached houses and 62% attached dwellings, marking a shift from the area's current housing composition of 96% houses. This trend suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles that require more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 347 people, reflecting the area's quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate Durack - Marlow Lagoon will gain 891 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth. Additionally, $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential development.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. Two projects, identified by AreaSearch, are expected to impact the area: Darwin Light Rail Stage 1 and Hudson Creek Power Station. Other notable projects include Marine Industry Park and Darwin Corporate Park. The following details the projects likely to have the most relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Durack - Marlow Lagoon performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of June 2025. This is lower than Greater Darwin's rate of 3.0%.

The area has seen employment growth of 2.8% over the past year, with 3,049 residents in work. Workforce participation in Durack - Marlow Lagoon is high at 79.0%, compared to Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Employment is concentrated in public administration & safety, construction, and health care & social assistance sectors. Construction employment stands out with a share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance has limited presence at 10.4% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparisons. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.8%, while labour force grew by 2.9%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Durack - Marlow Lagoon's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's median income among taxpayers was $64,464 and average income stood at $71,174 in financial year 2022. This compares to Greater Darwin's figures of $65,522 and $75,260 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $72,206 (median) and $79,722 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Durack - Marlow Lagoon, between the 92nd and 95th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 41.2% of the population (2,013 individuals) fall within the $1,500-$2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 36.7% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners (39.6% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout this suburb. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 91st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Darwin metro's 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Durack - Marlow Lagoon was 13.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.1% and rented ones at 41.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, exceeding Darwin metro's average of $2,037. The median weekly rent figure was $500, higher than Darwin metro's $400. Nationally, Durack - Marlow Lagoon's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 42.0% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Durack - Marlow Lagoon exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Durack - Marlow Lagoon has 3 schools with a combined enrollment of 794 students. The area's school conditions are typical Australian standards (ICSEA: 1005), offering balanced educational opportunities. Among the residents aged 15+, 25.6% hold university degrees, compared to 31.3% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 42.3% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.3% while certificates make up 30.0%. Educational participation is high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education. The educational mix comprises 1 primary school, 1 secondary school, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has 19 active public transport stops. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 34 individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 1,958.

Residential accessibility to transport is rated good, with residents typically located 288 metres from the nearest stop. On average, there are 279 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Durack-Marlow Lagoon with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 55% (~2,688 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than Greater Darwin's average. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (6.2%). About 77.9% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the 76.6% in Greater Darwin. Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 9.3% (454 people) compared to Greater Darwin's 7.5%. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they require more attention than the broader population.

Durack - Marlow Lagoon was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Durack-Marlow Lagoon's population is more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 24.9% born overseas and 17.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 45.2%. Hinduism is slightly overrepresented at 2.5%, compared to the Greater Darwin average of 2.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.7%), English (23.3%), and Other (9.4%). Notable differences exist in Filipino representation (3.9% vs regional 4.8%), Maori (1.0% vs 0.7%), and Australian Aboriginal (4.5% vs 9.1%).

Durack - Marlow Lagoon hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a median age of 32, which is younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Durack-Marlow Lagoon has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (16.9%). Between 2021 and the present day, the population aged 65-74 has increased from 5.0% to 6.3%, while the 55-64 age group has risen from 9.6% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 11.2%, and the 25-34 age group has fallen from 18.1% to 16.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Durack-Marlow Lagoon's age structure. The population aged 65-74 is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 198 people (64%) from 310 to 509. Conversely, the number of residents aged 0-4 is expected to decrease.