Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bakewell's population was around 3,417 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 326 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,417 from the ABS as of June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,588 persons per square kilometer, placing Bakewell in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bakewell's growth of 10.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 9.3%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort to each area, provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above median growth for Australian statistical areas. Bakewell is expected to grow by 739 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 21.6% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bakewell has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 14 homes. As of FY26, there have been two approvals recorded. Over the preceding five years (FY21 to FY25), an average of 5.4 new residents arrived annually for each dwelling constructed. This indicates a significant gap between demand and supply, which typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction value of new properties is $325,000. In the current financial year, commercial approvals amount to $244,000, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Bakewell has notably less development activity compared to Greater Darwin, with 79.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. However, this activity remains under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 54.0% houses.

This trend may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Bakewell has approximately 970 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Bakewell is expected to grow by 739 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 3rdth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been pinpointed by AreaSearch that may impact this area. Notable projects encompass Darwin to Palmerston Mass Transit Corridor, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with the following list outlining those deemed most relevant.

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Bakewell ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than the national average of 3.1%. Over the past year, ending December 2025, employment growth was estimated at 0.9%.

As of this date, 2,045 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Darwin's rate. Workforce participation in Bakewell is high at 79.5%, compared to Greater Darwin's 72.5%. Census data shows that only 3.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Leading employment industries among Bakewell residents include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction.

The area has a particularly notable concentration in retail trade, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to the regional average of 14.2%. Despite being predominantly residential, Bakewell appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months ending December 2025, employment in Bakewell increased by 0.9% while labour force grew by 1.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Darwin saw employment rise by 1.3%, with the labour force growing by 1.2% and unemployment falling marginally. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Bakewell SA2's median income among taxpayers was $69,049 and the average income stood at $74,493 in financial year 2023. This compares to figures for Greater Darwin of $66,956 and $77,199 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.41% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,547 (median) and $81,503 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, individual earnings stood out at the 85th percentile nationally ($1,104 weekly). The predominant income cohort spans 47.1% of locals (1,609 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 36.7% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, placing disposable income at the 60th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bakewell, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 27 August 2016, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Darwin metropolitan area's structure of 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bakewell stood at 10.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bakewell was $1,742, lower than Darwin metro's average of $2,100. The median weekly rent figure for Bakewell was recorded at $380, compared to Darwin metro's $385. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 13.6% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by 24 unique routes, facilitating a total of 1,146 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents located an average of 213 meters from the nearest stop. Most Bakewell residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (92%). On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 3.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 163 trips per day, equating to around 191 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Bakewell are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Bakewell's health indicators show below-average outcomes, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,916 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 7.7 and 6.2% of residents respectively. 76.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 6.5% of residents aged 65 and over (223 people), which is lower than the 11.0% in Greater Darwin. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 25.0% born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bakewell, comprising 41.3% of its population. Hinduism showed notable overrepresentation, making up 2.4% compared to the regional average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%) were the top three represented groups in Bakewell. Some ethnic groups showed significant divergences: Filipino was overrepresented at 5.6% compared to the regional average of 3.8%, Australian Aboriginal at 9.4% versus 7.0%, and New Zealanders at 0.8% against 0.6%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell's median age of 32 is slightly lower than Greater Darwin's figure of 34, and notably under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has a higher proportion of 5-14 year-olds at 15.4%, but fewer 65-74 year-olds at 3.9%. Between 2021 and the present, the 15-24 age group has risen from 12.0% to 13.5%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 15.8% to 16.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Bakewell's age structure. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 153 people (38%), rising from 404 to 558. The 55-64 group is expected to grow more modestly at 10%, adding only 32 residents.