Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bakewell's population is approximately 3,347 as of February 2026. This represents an increase of 256 people from the 2021 Census figure of 3,091 persons. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,345 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,535 persons per square kilometer, placing Bakewell in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 8.3% growth since the census is within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (9.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in Bakewell.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort from the ABS's latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project above median growth for Australian statistical areas. Bakewell is expected to grow by 814 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 24.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bakewell has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 14 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. Historically, between FY21 and FY25, an average of 5.4 new residents arrived annually for each dwelling constructed. This indicates significant demand exceeding supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $325,000. In the current financial year, $244,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to Bakewell's development activity, which is 79.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity, although it remains under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 54.0% houses, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Bakewell shows a mature, established area with around 970 people per approval.

Looking ahead, Bakewell is expected to grow by 812 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified in this area by AreaSearch. Key projects previously considered potentially impactful are: Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Bakewell performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of September 2025. This is lower than Greater Darwin's rate of 3.1%. Employment growth in Bakewell over the past year was estimated at 1.8%, compared to 1.9% in Greater Darwin.

As of September 2025, 2,046 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Darwin's rate and workforce participation at 81.7%. Only 3.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Retail trade has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance has limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to 14.2% regionally. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force increased by 1.9%, leaving unemployment broadly flat in Bakewell, contrasting with Greater Darwin's marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Bakewell SA2 has a high national income level according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $69,049 and the average income stands at $74,493. This compares to figures for Greater Darwin of $66,956 and $77,199 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $74,877 (median) and $80,780 (average). Census 2021 data shows individual earnings at the 85th percentile nationally are $1,104 weekly. The predominant income cohort spans 47.1% of locals (1,576 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Bakewell, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Darwin metro had 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bakewell was at 10.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bakewell was $1,742, below Darwin metro's average of $2,100. The median weekly rent figure for Bakewell was recorded at $380, compared to Darwin metro's $385. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.0% and certificates for 34.6%. Educational participation is high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are connected by twenty-four routes that facilitate 1,146 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 213 meters to the nearest one. Bakewell is predominantly residential, and most residents commute outside the area. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 3.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 163 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 191 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Bakewell are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Bakewell's health indicators show below-average outcomes, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,877 people). Mental health issues impact 7.7% of residents, while asthma affects 6.2%. A total of 76.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. The under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Bakewell has 6.5% of residents aged 65 and over (217 people), which is lower than the 10.8% in Greater Darwin. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 25.0% of its residents born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bakewell, making up 41.3% of the population. However, Hinduism showed an overrepresentation, comprising 2.4% compared to the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). Notable divergences included Filipino at 5.6% in Bakewell versus 3.8% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 9.4% versus 7.0%, and New Zealand at 0.8% versus 0.6%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell has a median age of 31, which is lower than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly younger than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile indicates that the 5-14 year-old group is particularly prominent at 15.9%, while the 65-74 year-old group is relatively smaller at 3.8% compared to Greater Darwin. According to data from the 2021 Census, Bakewell's population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.0% to 14.0%, while the 45-54 year-old cohort has declined from 14.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Bakewell is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 year-old cohort expected to increase by 160 people (41%), growing from 388 to 549 individuals.