Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bakewell's population is around 3,347 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 256 people (8.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,345 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,535 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bakewell's 8.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (9.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 51.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 814 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 24.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bakewell has averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 14 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Given an average of 5.4 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $325,000. Additionally, $244,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has significantly less development activity (79.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. This activity is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 54.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. At around 970 people per approval, Bakewell shows a mature, established area.

Looking ahead, Bakewell is expected to grow by 812 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Bakewell ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Bakewell features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.2%, and 0.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,045 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Darwin's rate of 3.1%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (81.8% compared to Greater Darwin's 76.1%). Based on Census responses, a low 3.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in retail trade, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Meanwhile, health care & social assistance has a limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to 14.2% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.9% while the labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Darwin, where employment rose by 1.3%, the labour force grew by 1.2%, and unemployment fell marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Bakewell. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Bakewell SA2's income level is very high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Bakewell SA2's median income among taxpayers is $69,049 and the average income stands at $74,493, which compares to figures for Greater Darwin's of $66,956 and $77,199 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $74,877 (median) and $80,780 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows individual earnings stand out at the 85th percentile nationally ($1,104 weekly). Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 47.1% of locals (1,576 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 36.7% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Bakewell, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Darwin metro's 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Bakewell was lagging that of Darwin metro, at 10.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Darwin metro average at $1,742, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380, compared to Darwin metro's $2,100 and $385. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.9% of all households, comprising 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (18.8%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 31.3%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 6 active transport stops operating within Bakewell, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 1,146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 213 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 3.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 163 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 191 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Bakewell are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Bakewell, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,877 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.7% and 6.2% of residents, respectively, while 76.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.1% across Greater Darwin. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 6.5% of residents aged 65 and over (217 people), which is lower than the 10.8% in Greater Darwin, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 25.0% of its population born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Bakewell is Christianity, which makes up 41.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Hinduism, which comprises 2.4% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Darwin.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Bakewell are Australian, comprising 24.9% of the population, English, comprising 22.5% of the population, and Other, comprising 11.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Filipino is notably overrepresented at 5.6% of Bakewell (vs 3.8% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 9.4% (vs 7.0%) and New Zealand at 0.8% (vs 0.6%).

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 31, Bakewell is modestly under the Greater Darwin figure of 34 and considerably younger than the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows 5 - 14 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.9%), while the 65 - 74 group is comparatively smaller (3.8%) than in Greater Darwin. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.0% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Bakewell is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 160 people (41%) from 388 to 549.