Bakewell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bakewell's population is approximately 3,350 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 259 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,091. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,345 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. Bakewell's population density stands at 2,537 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area has experienced an 8.4% growth since the census, within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 51.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above median growth for Australian statistical areas. Bakewell is expected to grow by 814 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 24.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bakewell averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 14 homes. As of FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.4 new residents arrived annually for each dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. This demand significantly outpaces supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $325,000. In FY26, commercial approvals valued at $244,000 have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has significantly less development activity, 79.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although recent periods have seen increased activity. However, this activity remains under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 54.0% houses.

Bakewell has a population density of around 970 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. By 2041, Bakewell is expected to grow by 809 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 5thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are currently planned in this area. No projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact the region. Among previously proposed developments, Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park were considered significant. However, no further details on these initiatives are available at this time.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Bakewell performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of September 2025. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 1.8%.

The area's unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Darwin's rate of 3.1%, and its workforce participation rate is higher at 75.8% compared to Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Leading employment industries among residents include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Retail trade has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance, however, has limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to 14.2% regionally.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment in Bakewell increased by 1.8%, while labour force grew by 1.9%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Darwin saw employment rise by 1.9%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NT employment contracted by 1.13% (losing 4,100 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.4%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bakewell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Bakewell SA2 had a very high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers was $67,199 and average income stood at $72,326. These figures compared with Greater Darwin's median income of $65,522 and average income of $75,260 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $75,270 (median) and $81,012 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data showed individual earnings stood out at the 85th percentile nationally ($1,104 weekly). The predominant income cohort spanned 47.1% of locals (1,577 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting broader area patterns where 36.7% similarly occupied this range. High housing costs consumed 17.9% of income, yet strong earnings placed disposable income at the 60th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bakewell's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Darwin metro had 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bakewell stood at 10.4%, with the rest of dwellings being mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,742, below Darwin metro's average of $2,037. Weekly rent in Bakewell was recorded at $380, compared to Darwin metro's $400. Nationally, Bakewell's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.9 percent of all households, including 31.4 percent couples with children, 20.5 percent couples without children, and 17.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.1 percent, with lone person households at 26.1 percent and group households comprising 4.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 34.6%. Educational participation is high, with 35.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 13.6% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six active public transport stops, all of which operate buses. These stops are served by 23 different routes, together facilitating 1,144 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents situated an average of 213 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 163 daily trips across all routes, resulting in about 190 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bakewell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Bakewell's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having particularly low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~1,852 people) of Bakewell's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (7.7%) and asthma (6.2%), while 76.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 76.6% in Greater Darwin. Only 6.3% (212 people) of Bakewell's population is aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Darwin's 7.5%.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bakewell was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population showed higher cultural diversity than most nearby areas, with 25.0% born overseas and 20.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bakewell at 41.3%. Hinduism, however, was more prevalent here at 2.4%, compared to Greater Darwin's 2.6%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Filipino were overrepresented at 5.6% in Bakewell versus 4.8% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 9.4% compared to 9.1%, and New Zealanders at 0.8% against 0.7%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell has a median age of 32, which is younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.8%). From 2021 to present, the proportion of Bakewell's population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.0% to 13.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 14.0% to 11.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show that Bakewell's age structure will experience significant shifts. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 154 people (39%) from 394 to 549.