Bakewell
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bakewell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bakewell's population was 3,091 as of the 2021 Census. By Aug 2025, it is around 3,352, reflecting an increase of 261 people (8.4%). This change is inferred from ABS data: an estimated resident population of 3,345 in June 2024 and one validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,539 persons per square kilometer, placing Bakewell in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. The area's growth rate of 8.4% since the census is within 0.2 percentage points of the national average (8.6%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.1% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies age cohort-based growth rates from the ABS's latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future trends project above median population growth for Australian statistical areas. Bakewell is expected to grow by 814 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 24.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bakewell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bakewell has averaged approximately zero new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis. There have been a total of three approvals across the past five financial years, from FY-20 to FY-25, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 5.4 new residents per year have been associated with each home built over these past five financial years.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, typically leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $358,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY-26, there have been $244,000 in commercial approvals registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Darwin, where Bakewell has significantly less development activity, 81.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although there has been recent intensification of construction activity. This is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 54.0% houses, possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Bakewell's population density is approximately 970 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area.

Bakewell has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly influence a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major undertakings, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has recognized 0 projects that might impact this area. Notable projects include Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, Darwin Corporate Park, and Darwin Renewable Energy Hub; the following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Bakewell performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Bakewell has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.9%, which is lower than Greater Darwin's 3.0%. In the past year, employment grew by 3.1% in Bakewell, compared to 2.9% in Greater Darwin.

As of June 2025, 75.8% of residents are participating in the workforce, higher than Greater Darwin's 69.7%. Public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction are leading employment industries among Bakewell residents. Retail trade has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to 14.2% regionally.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, Bakewell's employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 2.9%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NT employment grew by 1.0% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts for Bakewell suggest local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Bakewell's median income among taxpayers was $67,199 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $72,326 during the same period. For Greater Darwin, these figures were $65,522 and $75,260 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Bakewell's median income would be approximately $74,215 as of March 2025, with the average estimated at $79,877 during this period. According to Census 2021 data, individual earnings in Bakewell stood out at the 86th percentile nationally, which is equivalent to $1,104 weekly. The income distribution shows that 47.1% of locals (1,578 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category. This pattern is similar to the broader area where 36.7% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income in Bakewell. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bakewell displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bakewell, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 27 August 2016, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Darwin metro's dwelling structure of 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Bakewell was higher than that of Darwin metro, at 10.4%. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (46.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of June 2021, was $1,742, which is lower than both the Darwin metro average of $2,037 and the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Bakewell was recorded at $380 in March 2022, compared to Darwin metro's $400 and the national average of $375.

Bakewell features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 20.5% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Bakewell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 31.3%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 35.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.6% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education. Bakewell Primary School serves the local area, enrolling 653 students as of a recent date. The school caters to typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 968) with balanced educational opportunities. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. School capacity exceeds residential needs, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region, with 19.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.7.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bakewell has six active public transport stops, all of which offer bus services. These stops are served by 23 different routes that together facilitate 1,144 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 213 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 163 trips per day, equating to around 190 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bakewell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Bakewell's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having notably low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~1,853 people) of Bakewell's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 7.7 and 6.2% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 76.2%, reported being free from medical ailments, compared to 76.6% across Greater Darwin. Bakewell has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 6.3% (212 people), than Greater Darwin's 7.5%.

Bakewell was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bakewell's population, with 25% born overseas and 20% speaking a language other than English at home, is more culturally diverse compared to most local markets. Christianity stands as the dominant religion in Bakewell, accounting for 41.3% of its inhabitants. Notably, Hinduism is overrepresented in Bakewell at 2.4%, slightly higher than the regional average of 2.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (24.9%), English (22.5%), and Other (11.1%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Filipino representation is notably higher at 5.6% in Bakewell compared to the regional average of 4.8%, while Australian Aboriginal representation stands at 9.4%, slightly above the regional figure of 9.1%. New Zealanders comprise 0.8% of Bakewell's population, marginally higher than the regional average of 0.7%.

Bakewell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Bakewell has a median age of 32, which is slightly younger than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Darwin, Bakewell has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.8%). Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of residents aged 15-24 has grown from 12.0% to 13.7%, while the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 14.0% to 11.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate that Bakewell's age structure will undergo significant shifts. The number of residents aged 45-54 is projected to increase by 154 people (39%), rising from 394 to 549.