Rosebery (NT)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rosebery reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the Rosebery (NT) statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,356 people. This reflects an increase of 229 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,127 people in the same area. The latest resident population estimate was inferred from AreaSearch's examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and address validation since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,304 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in 2021, Rosebery (NT) demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outpacing the SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the Rosebery (NT) (SA2), with an expected increase of 721 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 16.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Rosebery is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Rosebery has experienced approximately 3 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 16 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY-26 to date.

Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. Developers target the premium segment, with new dwellings averaging $443,000 in construction cost value. Compared to Greater Darwin, Rosebery has significantly less development activity, 82.0% below regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent development has picked up but remains below national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. All recent development comprised detached houses, sustaining Rosebery's suburban identity with family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Developers construct more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (68.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. With approximately 873 people per approval, Rosebery shows a mature, established area. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Rosebery to grow by 735 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Rosebery has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

No local infrastructure changes or major projects were identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects included Darwin Light Rail Stage 1, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park.

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The exceptional employment performance in Rosebery places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Rosebery has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 1.4%, lower than Greater Darwin's 3.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.8%. As of September 2025, 2,677 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Darwin's rate. Workforce participation is high at 75.5% compared to Greater Darwin's 69.7%.

Key industries include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. Health care & social assistance employs 12.0% of local workers, lower than Greater Darwin's 14.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8% and labour force by 1.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 1.7%. In contrast, Greater Darwin's employment grew by 1.9% with a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data to November 25 shows NT employment contracted by 1.13% (losing 4,100 jobs) with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, closely matching the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebery's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, Rosebery's median income among taxpayers is $73,346. The average income in the suburb is $78,943. Nationally, this is well above average. In comparison, Greater Darwin has a median income of $66,956 and an average of $77,199. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Rosebery's median income would be approximately $79,536 by September 2025, with the average estimated at around $85,606 during the same period. Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Rosebery rank highly nationally, between the 87th and 91st percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that the largest segment comprises 43.5% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This is consistent with broader trends across the broader area, where 36.7% fall into the same income category. Economic strength in Rosebery is evident through 34.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, which supports elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 17.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 85th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Rosebery displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Rosebery's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 68.4% houses and 31.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Darwin metro's 75.9% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebery stood at 8.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.5% and rented dwellings at 54.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,128, higher than Darwin metro's average of $2,037. Median weekly rent in Rosebery was $420, compared to Darwin metro's $400. Nationally, Rosebery's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,128 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $420 compared to the national figure of $375.

Rosebery features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.9% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 4.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Darwin average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Rosebery aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Rosebery's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks, with 22.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the SA4 region's 31.3%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebery has 16 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 44 different routes that collectively facilitate 2,242 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Rosebery is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 163 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 320 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 140 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rosebery's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebery's health outcomes data shows notable results with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 58% (~2,523 people) of Rosebery's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 7.1% and 6.9% of residents respectively. Around 78.2% of residents report no medical ailments compared to 76.6% across Greater Darwin. About 6.6% (287 people) of Rosebery's population is aged 65 and over. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Rosebery was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebery's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 22.8% born overseas and 17.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Rosebery at 40.3%. Hinduism, at 2.8%, is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Darwin's 2.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.9%), English (23.8%), and Other (11.1%). Notable divergences exist for New Zealanders (1.2% vs regional 0.7%), Filipinos (3.1% vs 4.8%), and Australian Aboriginals (7.1% vs 9.1%).

Rosebery hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebery's median age in 2021 was 31, which is lower than Greater Darwin's figure of 34 and significantly younger than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile indicates that the 5-14 year-olds were particularly prominent, making up 16.3% of the population, while the 55-64 group comprised only 7.9%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 65 to 74 age group grew from 3.6% to 4.7% of the population between 2016 and 2021, while the 5 to 14 cohort decreased from 17.7% to 16.3%. By 2041, Rosebery is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 age cohort expected to increase significantly by 163 people (30%) from 535 to 699. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort is projected to show minimal growth of just 4% (16 people).