Rosebery (NT)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rosebery reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census the suburb of Rosebery (NT)'s population is estimated at around 4,524 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 397 people (9.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,127 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,524, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,393 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebery's 9.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Rosebery (NT) is projected to grow by 678 persons to 2041, which represents an increase of 15.0% over the 16 years. This above median population growth compared to other national areas is based on the 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 projections using 2022 as a base, with post-2032 projections utilizing age cohort growth rates from the 2023 Greater Capital Region forecasts (based on 2022 data) for any areas lacking specific SA2 data.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rosebery according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

An average of 3 new homes have been approved annually in Rosebery, accumulating to an estimated 16 homes over the last 5 financial years, with 12 approvals registered so far in FY-26. With demand significantly outstripping new supply at a rate of 8.5 new residents per year for each home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, upward pressure on prices and heightened buyer competition are likely. Meanwhile, the average expected construction cost for these new dwellings is $443,000, signaling a developer focus on high-end, premium properties.

Compared to Greater Darwin, building activity in Rosebery is substantially lower, sitting at 82.0% below the regional average per capita. While this low volume of new completions generally supports values for existing housing, local building activity has risen lately. This rate is also below the countrywide average, reflecting the established status of the locality and potential regulatory limitations. Additionally, recent projects have consisted entirely of standalone houses, preserving a family-oriented suburban character for buyers prioritizing space. Developers are opting for standalone houses at a higher rate than the current housing mix shows (68.0% at the Census), indicating sustained demand for family residences despite broader densification trends. The ratio of around 888 people for each approval highlights a mature and settled community.

Projections indicate that Rosebery will add 678 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. If construction rates do not accelerate from their current pace, the volume of new housing may fall short of population gains, which could intensify competition among buyers and support stronger growth in property values.

Rosebery has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 15thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major works, and municipal planning are key drivers of regional growth. AreaSearch has identified no projects that are expected to influence the local area. The main developments of regional significance include the Darwin to Palmerston Mass Transit Corridor, Hudson Creek Power Station, Marine Industry Park, and Darwin Corporate Park.

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The exceptional employment performance in Rosebery places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Rosebery is characterized by a skilled resident workforce and strong representation in key service industries, recording a jobless rate of 1.4% and an estimated annual job growth of 0.6% based on aggregated regional data. As of March 2026, there are 2,674 employed residents, with the local unemployment rate sitting 2.0% below the 3.5% recorded for Greater Darwin. The workforce participation rate is exceptionally high at 78.7%, compared to 72.7% across Greater Darwin. Census records show that a minor 3.2% of the local workforce operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. However, health care & social assistance accounts for only 12.0% of employment among residents, which is lower than the Greater Darwin average of 14.2%. Comparing the Census count of locally employed workers against the total resident workforce suggests that this mainly residential suburb offers few jobs within its own boundaries.

According to SALM and ABS data aggregated from local statistical areas, employment and the total labor force both grew by 0.6% in the year ending March 2026, which kept the local jobless rate steady. In comparison, Greater Darwin saw employment grow by 0.4%, the labor force expand by 0.8%, and the unemployment rate rise by 0.3 percentage points. Long-term national employment projections from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context on prospective workforce needs. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future patterns. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. Applying these industry-specific projections to the current local mix suggests Rosebery's employment could rise by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, representing a basic weighted calculation that does not incorporate localized population adjustments.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to the latest ATO postcode data for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in Rosebery earn a median income of $73,346 and an average income of $78,943. These figures are considerably higher than the national averages and compare to a median of $66,956 and an average of $77,199 in Greater Darwin. Adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 9.41% since the 2023 financial year, current estimated values would be approximately $80,248 for the median and $86,372 for the average as of March 2026. Census findings show that personal, family, and household incomes in Rosebery are elevated, placing the area between the 87th and 91st percentiles nationally. The largest income bracket contains 43.5% of taxpayers (1,967 residents) earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which aligns with the broader regional figure of 36.7% in this bracket. Furthermore, 34.5% of households earn weekly incomes above $3,000, indicating high purchasing power. While housing costs consume 17.2% of household income, strong earnings keep disposable income at the 85th percentile nationally, and the area ranks in the 7th decile of the SEIFA index for income.

Rosebery displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

At the time of the latest Census, the housing stock in Rosebery consisted of 68.4% standalone houses and 31.6% semi-detached properties, apartments, or alternative structures, compared to 63.5% houses and 36.5% other dwellings across metro Darwin. Home ownership in Rosebery lagged the metropolitan average, standing at 8.4%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (37.5%) or tenants (54.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,128 was higher than the Darwin metro average of $2,100, while the median weekly rent of $420 was above the metro figure of $385. Nationally, Rosebery's mortgage payments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also well above the national median of $375.

Rosebery features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up 77.9% of local households, consisting of couples with children at 42.3%, couples without children at 21.9%, and single parents at 12.6%. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.1%, consisting of single-person households at 17.8% and group households at 4.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, exceeding the Greater Darwin average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Rosebery aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Rosebery is lower than the regional average, with 22.7% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree compared to 31.3% across the wider SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.1% and graduate diplomas at 3.0%. Vocational education is highly represented, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding technical qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 32.2%.

Enrolment in formal education is high, with 37.6% of the population participating. Primary school pupils make up 15.1% of residents, secondary students account for 9.2%, and tertiary students represent 5.8% of the community.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of the local network shows 16 public transport stops in Rosebery, consisting of bus services. These stops support 44 unique routes that run a combined 2,242 weekly services. Transit accessibility is strong, with residents living an average of 163 meters from their nearest stop. The suburb is mostly residential, meaning most workers travel outside the area to work, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 94%. Households own an average of 1.7 vehicles, which is above the regional norm. A low 3.2% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic context.

Bus services run an average of 320 daily trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 140 weekly services at each individual stop.

Rosebery's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebery matches national health patterns closely according to assessments of mortality and chronic illness rates, with typical medical issues distributed across younger and older age brackets, and private health insurance coverage is notably high, representing approximately 58% of the population (~2,621 people).

The primary medical diagnoses in the suburb are mental health concerns and asthma, which affect 7.1% and 6.9% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 78.2% of the population reported no long-term health issues, compared to 77.1% in Greater Darwin. The working-age population is healthy, showing a low incidence of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and older make up 6.7% of the population (303 people), compared to 11.0% across Greater Darwin. Seniors experience some health difficulties, with their national health rankings generally matching those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Rosebery was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The suburb has elevated cultural diversity, with 22.8% of residents born outside Australia and 17.5% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 40.3% of the community. Hinduism shows the most significant relative concentration at 2.8% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Darwin.

In terms of parental heritage, the most common backgrounds are Australian at 26.9%, English at 23.8%, and Other at 11.1%. Certain minor ethnicities show distinct local distributions compared to the wider region: New Zealand heritage is represented at 1.2% (compared to 0.6% regionally), Filipino heritage at 3.1% (compared to 3.8%), and Australian Aboriginal heritage at 7.1% (compared to 7.0%).

Rosebery hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The suburb of Rosebery (NT) has a median age of 31, which is slightly lower than the Greater Darwin median of 34 and substantially younger than the Australian median of 38. The age distribution features a large group of 5 - 14 year-olds (15.5%), while the 65 - 74 age group is smaller (4.8%) than in Greater Darwin. Since the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group has risen from 6.9% to 8.4% of the population, and the 65 to 74 cohort grew from 3.6% to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the proportion of 5 to 14 year-olds fell from 17.7% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic shifts will alter the population profile. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to expand by 165 people (30%) from 547 to 713, whereas the 0 to 4 group is forecast to grow by only 5% (17 people).