Tenterfield

Tenterfield has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Tenterfield's estimated population is around 4,348. This reflects an increase of 281 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,067. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4,172 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024, and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 6.5 persons per square kilometer. Tenterfield's growth of 6.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 3.1%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to reduce by 317 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, projected to grow by 140 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tenterfield recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Tenterfield had around 12 new homes approved each year. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 61 homes were approved, with 8 more approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of about 3 new residents per dwelling constructed over these years.

The demand significantly exceeds the supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $400,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting a focus on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tenterfield has comparable construction activity per person, maintaining market balance with the broader area.

However, this level is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. There are approximately 336 people per dwelling approval in Tenterfield, indicating room for growth. With population expected to remain stable or decline, there should be reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Tenterfield has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The influence of local infrastructure changes on an area's performance is significant. AreaSearch has identified three projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Molesworth Street Bridge Replacement and Sewer Line Relocation project, the Tenterfield Heavy Vehicle Bypass project, the Haddington Aged Care Community Expansion project, and the Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements project. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tenterfield exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Tenterfield has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate is 2.7%.

Employment grew by 1% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 1902 residents are employed at an unemployment rate of 1.2%, below Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 46.1%. Major employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture.

Agriculture has a high representation with a share 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance is lower at 13.1% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Local employment opportunities may be limited based on Census data comparison. In the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 1%, labour force by 1.2%, raising unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force by 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tenterfield's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tenterfield had lower than average income levels nationally in financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $36,092 and the average income stood at $44,701. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $39,290 and the average $48,662, based on an 8.86% growth in wages since financial year 2023. According to Census figures from 2021, incomes in Tenterfield fell within the 1st to 4th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis showed that the largest segment comprised 33.6% of residents earning $400-$799 weekly, differing from broader area patterns where those earning $1,500-$2,999 dominated at 29.9%. With 44.4% earning under $800 per week, the suburb faced significant income constraints impacting local spending patterns. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.3% of income to be retained, total disposable income ranked at just the 4th percentile nationally.

Tenterfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tenterfield's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tenterfield stood at 55.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,192, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,100. Median weekly rent in Tenterfield was $250, slightly above Non-Metro NSW's figure of $240. Nationally, Tenterfield's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rent was substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tenterfield features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 16.0% couples with children, 35.3% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Tenterfield faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 29.7%.

A substantial 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tenterfield's public transport analysis indicates 163 active stops operating within the area, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 16 unique routes, offering a total of 169 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents situated an average of 145 meters from their nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 24 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Tenterfield is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tenterfield faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45%, or about 1,943 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 13.7% and 9.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.0% in the Rest of NSW. As of 2021, 34.9%, or 1,517 people, are aged 65 and over, higher than the 27.4% reported in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors perform better than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Tenterfield placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tenterfield had a cultural diversity level below average, with 90.7% citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 63.3%. This is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 64.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (11.6%). Notably, German (5.9%) Scottish (9.0%) and Welsh (0.6%) groups had higher representation than regional averages of 3.9%, 8.4% and 0.3% respectively.

Tenterfield ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tenterfield is 54 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and considerably older than the national norm of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 18.8% in Tenterfield, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 6.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 0 to 4 age group has grown from 4.4% to 6.2%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 15.3% to 13.8%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 20.2% to 18.8%. By 2041, Tenterfield's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ age cohort is projected to expand considerably, increasing by 129 people (74%) from 173 to 303. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, both the 5 to 14 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.