Tenterfield

Tenterfield has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's analysis using ABS population updates and validated new addresses, the suburb of Tenterfield had an estimated population of 4,302 as of May 2026. This figure represents a growth of 235 people (5.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,067. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4,257 residents based on ERP data release by ABS in June 2025 and an additional 112 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 6.4 persons per square kilometer. Tenterfield's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.7%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 359 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, with the 85 and over age group projected to grow by 141 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tenterfield according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Tenterfield has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 60 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, about 1.3 new residents have arrived per new home over these five years.

This indicates a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market dynamics. The average construction value of new dwellings is $400,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tenterfield's construction activity per person is comparable, indicating a consistent market balance with the broader region.

This level is lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. All recent building activity consists of detached houses, preserving the area's traditional low-density character and focus on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 346 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. With a projected stable or declining population, Tenterfield may experience reduced housing pressure, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Tenterfield has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Molesworth Street Bridge Replacement and Sewer Line Relocation, Tenterfield Heavy Vehicle Bypass, Haddington Aged Care Community Expansion, and Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, Tenterfield has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Tenterfield's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, as per AreaSearch aggregated data. As of December 2025, 1,855 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% lower than Regional NSW's 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Tenterfield stands at 53.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. The area has a high specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 13.1% versus the regional average of 16.9%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, labour force decreased by 0.8% and employment by 1.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2%, labour force decrease by 0.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tenterfield's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tenterfield had a lower income level than average on a national basis according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Tenterfield was $36,092, with an average income of $44,701. These figures compared to Regional NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $39,817 (median) and $49,314 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Tenterfield all fell between the 1st and 4th percentiles nationally. Income analysis showed that the largest segment comprised 33.6% of residents earning $400 - $799 weekly, differing from broader area patterns where $1,500 - $2,999 dominated with 29.9%. With 44.4% earning under $800 per week, the suburb faced considerable income constraints affecting local spending patterns. While housing costs were modest with 87.3% of income retained, total disposable income ranked at just the 4th percentile nationally.

Tenterfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tenterfield's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tenterfield was 55.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,192, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Tenterfield was $250, lower than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tenterfield's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,192 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $250.

Tenterfield features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.1% of all households, including 16.0% couples with children, 35.3% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households making up 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tenterfield faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.7%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 1.8% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tenterfield has 163 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 16 different routes that together offer 169 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents on average located 145 meters from the nearest stop. In this mainly residential area, most people commute outwards using cars, which remain the dominant mode at 90%, while 7% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 24 trips per day, equating to roughly one weekly trip per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Tenterfield is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tenterfield faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% of the total population (~1,922 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.7%) and mental health issues (9.3%), while 56.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 37.0% (1,591 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Tenterfield placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tenterfield's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (91.4%), and speaking English only at home (97.2%). The predominant religion in Tenterfield is Christianity, accounting for 63.3%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Tenterfield are English (32.5%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (11.6%).

Notably, German ancestry is overrepresented at 5.9% compared to the regional average of 3.1%, Scottish at 9.0% versus 8.0%, and Welsh at 0.6% compared to 0.5%.

Tenterfield ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tenterfield's median age is 55 years, which is higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 year-olds comprise 19.6% of Tenterfield's population, significantly higher than Regional NSW's figure and well above the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group makes up only 6.7%, lower than the regional average. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.9% to 13.1%, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 4.4% to 5.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 15.3% to 13.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 85+ age cohort is expected to rise substantially, increasing by 124 people (67%) from 184 to 309. This growth will be driven entirely by residents aged 65 and older, while population declines are projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts.