South Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, South Grafton's population is estimated at around 6,375 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 87 people (1.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,288 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,330 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for South Grafton was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with South Grafton expected to increase by 674 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

South Grafton recorded approximately 4 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 24 homes. In FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded so far. On average, this results in 5.2 new residents per year for every home built.

The average construction value of these new homes is $342,000. Additionally, $3.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded in FY-26, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, South Grafton has significantly less development activity, 86.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The current construction mix comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 90.0% houses. The estimated population density is 1423 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, South Grafton is expected to grow by 731 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Grafton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Rushforth Road Manufactured Home Estate, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in South Grafton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

South Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 11.1%.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relative. There are 2,138 working residents, with an unemployment rate 7.2% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 45.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety.

The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. However, construction is under-represented at 6.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census working population vs resident population counts. From September 2024 to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 2.9% while employment decreased by 0.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment stands at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of South Grafton had a lower than average national income level based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $38,128 and the average income stood at $44,964. These figures compared to Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% would be approximately $41,506 for the median income and $48,948 for the average income. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in South Grafton fell between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution showed that 30.9% of the population earned within the $400 - 799 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category was predominant at 29.9%. Lower income households were prevalent with 41.0% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures were severe as only 82.1% of income remained, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

South Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Grafton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Grafton stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.6% and rented ones at 37.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,144, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in South Grafton was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, South Grafton's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower at $1,144 against the Australian average of $1,863, and median weekly rent is substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.2% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

South Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.0%, considerably lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 6.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (33.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.9% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Grafton has 82 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 69 individual routes, providing a total of 884 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 187 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 126 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in South Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 45% (~2,856 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues are the most common condition (12.3%), followed by arthritis (10.5%). About 55.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 58.7%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 19.9% (1,268 people), lower than the Rest of NSW's 27.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but generally align with the overall population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees South Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Grafton's cultural diversity was below average, with 89.5% of its population being citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in South Grafton, comprising 53.3% of people, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.3%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.5%), which was substantially higher than the regional average of 5.5%.

Notably, Samoan ethnicity was overrepresented at 0.1%, Sri Lankan at 0.1%, and Scottish at 7.3% compared to regional averages of 0.0%, 0.0%, and 8.9% respectively.

South Grafton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in South Grafton is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, South Grafton has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.1%). According to the 2021 Census, the population of South Grafton in the age group 35 to 44 years increased from 10.5% to 11.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 decreased from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Grafton's age structure. The 35 to 44 age group is expected to grow by 23%, reaching a population of 928 from the current 752. Conversely, the populations of the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups are projected to decline.