South Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of South Grafton is estimated to be around 6,409 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 121 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,288 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,390 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 257 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 1.9% growth since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA4 region, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 618 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.3% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in South Grafton, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows South Grafton has recorded approximately 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 30 homes. So far in FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. This averages out to about 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand, with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes is $342,000.

In FY26, South Grafton has recorded $3.7 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, South Grafton has significantly less development activity, around 83.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, with this level also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining South Grafton's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is around 973 people in the area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, South Grafton is expected to grow by approximately 599 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are: Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Rushforth Road Manufactured Home Estate, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates South Grafton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

South Grafton has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.9% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5%. As of December 2025, 2,146 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate remained high at 5.9%, above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was lower in South Grafton at 46.7% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Only 6.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. South Grafton had a particularly strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employed only 6.4% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 4.5%, while labour force grew by 1.9%, resulting in a decrease of unemployment by 2.3 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and an unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to South Grafton's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, South Grafton had a median taxpayer income of $38,128 and an average income of $44,964. Nationally, the averages are $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). By March 2026, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%, median income is estimated at $42,063 and average at $49,604. The 2021 Census places South Grafton's incomes between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.9% of residents earn between $400 - $799 weekly (1,980 individuals), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is highest at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

South Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Grafton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Grafton was at 36.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.6%) or rented (37.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,144, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $280, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, South Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 64.2% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

South Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 9.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (33.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.9% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Grafton has 82 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 69 individual routes, collectively providing 884 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 187 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 126 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Grafton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% (~2871 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 55.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.7% (~1326 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Grafton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.5% of its population being citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in South Grafton, comprising 53.3% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups in South Grafton are Australian (34.3%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.5%), which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Notably, Samoan (0.1%) and Sri Lankan (0.1%) groups are similarly represented in South Grafton compared to Regional NSW, while Scottish representation is slightly lower at 7.3% versus 8.0%.

South Grafton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in South Grafton is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, South Grafton has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 10.5% to 12.1%, while the 55-64 age group declined from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Grafton's age structure. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 19%, reaching 891 people from the current 749. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decrease in population.