South Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of South Grafton's population is estimated at around 6,379 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 91 people (1.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,288 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,330, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected. The suburb is expected to increase by 672 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

South Grafton recorded approximately four residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 24 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. On average, 5.2 new residents were associated with each home built between FY21 and FY25.

Commercial development approvals in FY26 totalled $3.7 million. Compared to the rest of NSW, South Grafton had significantly less development activity, at 86.0% below the regional average per person. Recent construction comprised 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments. The estimated population density is 1423 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, South Grafton's population is projected to grow by 722 residents.

Looking ahead, South Grafton is expected to grow by 722 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Rushforth Road Manufactured Home Estate, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in South Grafton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

South Grafton has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 11.0% as of September 2025. This rate is 7.2% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in South Grafton is lower at 48.5%, compared to 61.5% in Rest of NSW. Census data shows that only 6.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. South Grafton has a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, construction is under-represented at 6.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 2.8% while employment decreased by 0.2%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 2.6 percentage points. This compares to Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to South Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of South Grafton has a lower income level than the national average, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in South Grafton is $38,128, with an average income of $44,964. This compares to Rest of NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $41,506 (median) and $48,948 (average). From the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in South Grafton all fall between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 30.9% of the population (1,971 individuals) earn within the $400 - $799 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. A significant proportion, 41.0%, earn below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

South Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Grafton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Grafton stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.6% and rented ones at 37.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,144, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in South Grafton was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, South Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,144 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $280 than the national figure of $375.

South Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 64.2% of all households, consisting of 19.2% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

South Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 6.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 8.0% and certificates for 33.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Grafton has 82 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are connected by 69 routes that facilitate 884 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 187 meters to the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 93%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.1, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

On average, there are 126 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in South Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Grafton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% (~2,858 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 55.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population health challenges are notable due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,269 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Grafton, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens with English as their home language: 89.5% were citizens, 94.0% were born in Australia, and 97.2% spoke only English at home. Christianity was the major religion, comprising 53.3% of South Grafton's population, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 34.3%, English 30.2%, and Australian Aboriginal 10.5% of South Grafton's population, the latter being significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Samoan (0.1%), Sri Lankan (0.1%), and Scottish (7.3%) were relatively overrepresented in South Grafton compared to regional averages.

South Grafton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in South Grafton is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, South Grafton has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.1%). Following the Census conducted in 2021, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 10.5% to 12.2%, while the 55 to 64 age group declined from 12.1% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Grafton's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 22%, reaching a population of 905 from 739. Conversely, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups are projected to experience population declines.