South Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of South Grafton is estimated at around 6,379 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 91 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,288 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,330 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for South Grafton was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, South Grafton is expected to increase by 676 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, South Grafton recorded approximately 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 30 homes. So far in FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 4.1 new residents were associated with each home built annually between FY21 and FY25. This indicates a significant demand outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers.

The average construction value of new homes was $342,000. In the current financial year, South Grafton has recorded $3.7 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating its primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, South Grafton has significantly less development activity, with 83.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The area's development level is also under the national average, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations.

Recent construction comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining South Grafton's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With an estimated 986 people per dwelling approval, it reflects the area's quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, South Grafton is expected to grow by 627 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by changes to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Rushforth Road Manufactured Home Estate, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates South Grafton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

South Grafton has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services. The unemployment rate was 9.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.7%.

As of December 2025, 2,179 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was higher at 5.6%, compared to Regional NSW's 3.9%. Workforce participation was lower at 48.0% versus Regional NSW's 61.3%. Only 6.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 impacts may have influenced this figure. Dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety.

The area had a strong specialization in public administration & safety (1.4 times the regional level), but construction employed only 6.4% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. In the past year, employment increased by 4.7%, while labour force grew by 2.1%, leading to a 2.2 percentage point drop in unemployment. By comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decline of 1.2% and unemployment rise by 0.4%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest South Grafton's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation using industry-specific projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, South Grafton had a median income among taxpayers of $38,128. The average income stood at $44,964. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for median income would be approximately $41,506 as of September 2025. Average income is estimated to reach around $48,948 by the same date. From the 2021 Census, incomes in South Grafton fall between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that 30.9% of residents (1,971 individuals) earn between $400 - 799 per week, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of the locality. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

South Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Grafton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Grafton was at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.6% and rented ones at 37.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,144, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in South Grafton was $280, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, South Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 64.2% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

South Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 9.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 6.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (33.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Grafton has 82 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 69 individual routes, providing a total of 884 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 187 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 93% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 6.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 126 trips per day, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Grafton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 45% of the total population (~2,858 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 55.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (20.1%, or 1,282 people) than Regional NSW (23.4%). Senior health outcomes present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Grafton had a lower cultural diversity, with 89.5% citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 53.3%. This is slightly below Regional NSW's 55.9%.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (34.3%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.5%), which is higher than regional average of 4.6%. Notably, Samoan was at 0.1%, Sri Lankan at 0.1%, and Scottish at 7.3%, compared to regional averages of 0.1%, 0.1%, and 8.0% respectively.

South Grafton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in South Grafton is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but aligns with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, South Grafton has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 10.5% to 12.4%, while the 55-64 age group declined from 12.1% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Grafton's age structure. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 20%, reaching 902 people from the current 752. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are projected to experience population declines.