South Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, South Grafton's population is estimated at around 6,433 people. This figure reflects an increase of 145 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,288 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,390 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 258 persons per square kilometer. South Grafton's 2.3% growth since census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA4 region (5.1%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, with growth rates by age group applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with the suburb expected to increase by 690 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

South Grafton recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated thirty homes. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. On average, 4.2 new residents were associated with each home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This demand outpaces supply, potentially putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers.

The average construction value for new homes was $342,000, below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to the rest of NSW, South Grafton has significantly reduced construction activity, with 83.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although recent construction activity has intensified. New development consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature. However, this represents a shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyle preferences.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in South Grafton is 754 people. Future projections suggest that South Grafton will add 689 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

South Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Rushforth Road Manufactured Home Estate, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in South Grafton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 11.7% as of June 2025, based on AreaSearch data aggregation.

In June 2025, 2,116 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 8.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was at 45.3%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety, with a specialization in the latter, employing 1.4 times the regional level. Construction employed just 6.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population figures. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force increased by 3.1%, while employment declined by 1.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 4.0 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW's 0.1% employment contraction, 0.3% labour force growth, and 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Grafton's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

South Grafton's median income among taxpayers was $38,128 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $44,964 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for South Grafton's median income would be approximately $42,936 as of September 2025. The average income estimate for the same period is $50,634. According to Census 2021 data, household, family and personal incomes in South Grafton all fall between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 30.9% of the population (1,987 individuals) have an income range of $400 - 799. This differs from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. The data also indicates that 41.0% of households earn below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe in South Grafton, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile.

South Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Grafton's dwellings, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Grafton stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.6% and rented ones at 37.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,144, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in South Grafton was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, South Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,144 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.2% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 19.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

South Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has lower university qualification rates at 9.0%, compared to NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (33.8%). Educational participation is high at 30.8%, with 12.9% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

South Grafton's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,529 students, serving varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 850). The area has balanced education provision with 3 primary and 2 secondary schools. It functions as an education hub with 23.8 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 13.0.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Grafton has 73 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 71 individual routes, collectively providing 881 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 187 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 125 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in South Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The private health cover rate is notably low at approximately 45%, covering around 2,882 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues are the most prevalent condition, impacting 12.3% of residents, followed by arthritis affecting 10.5%. Conversely, 55.5% of residents report being free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the 58.7% reported in the Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.9%, with around 1,280 people, compared to the 27.5% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Grafton had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 89.5% of its population being Australian citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in South Grafton, comprising 53.3% of the population, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.3%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.5%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 5.5%.

Notably, Samoan (0.1%) and Sri Lankan (0.1%) groups were overrepresented in South Grafton compared to the region, while Scottish representation was slightly lower at 7.3% versus 8.9%.

South Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in South Grafton is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The proportion of the population aged 5-14 in South Grafton is notably higher at 14.9% compared to Rest of NSW's average, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 10.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of the population aged 35-44 has increased from 10.5% to 11.8%, while the proportion aged 55-64 has declined from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in South Grafton. The number of people aged 35-44 is projected to increase by 170 (23%) from 759 to 930. Meanwhile, the populations aged 55-64 and 65-74 are expected to decrease.