Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Grafton Surrounds' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 17,867. This figure represents a growth of 992 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,875. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,755 in June 2024 and an additional 218 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA4 region (5.1%) and the non-metro area, indicating its status as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.6% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Grafton Surrounds is projected to increase by 3,139 persons, reflecting a total gain of 16.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 320 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 22 approved so far in FY26. This results in around 6.3 new residents per year for every home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a significant demand outpacing supply.

New homes are constructed at an average value of $300,000. In FY26, $6.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, implying limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes.

New developments consist of 96% standalone homes and 4% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count is 402 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate Grafton Surrounds will gain approximately 3,027 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 53 potential impact projects. Key projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (scheduled for completion in 2021), another Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment project starting in 2022, and the Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre planned for 2023. The following list details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Grafton Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Grafton Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notable in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year as of September 2025.

In this month, 6,808 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Grafton Surrounds lags at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Major employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, but professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.2% compared to the regional average of 5.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9%, while labour force increased by 3.2%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while overall employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Grafton Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers was $43,070 and average income stood at $51,507 in the financial year 2022. This compares to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $48,501 (median) and $58,002 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Grafton Surrounds fall between the 6th and 12th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 28.3% of the population (5,056 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing costs are modest with 87.4% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Grafton Surrounds, as per the latest Census, comprised 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds was 51.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented ones at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 73.3% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.9% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton Surrounds has 777 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 95 routes, offering a total of 890 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 385 meters, indicating good accessibility.

On average, there are 127 trips per day across all routes, equating to about one trip per week for each individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (~8,290 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (12.1%) and mental health concerns (9.7%). Notably, 60.2% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 58.7%. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 25.1% (4,481 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 27.5%.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Grafton Surrounds, comprising 54.5% of people, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 4.9%, Irish at 8.6%, and German at 3.4%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age is 48 years, which is notably older than Rest of NSW's 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 55-64 are particularly prominent at 16.4%, while the 5-14 age group is comparatively smaller at 10.2% compared to Rest of NSW. This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national average of 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.0% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.4%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that Grafton Surrounds' age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to grow steadily by 566 people (28%) from 1,990 to 2,557. Conversely, the 15-24 age group shows minimal growth of just 0% (6 people).