Grafton Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Grafton Surrounds' population is around 17,840 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 965 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,875 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,755 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 207 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' growth rate of 5.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (4.8%) and the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 77.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,139 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 17.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually between FY-21 and FY-25. A total of 320 homes were approved during these five financial years, with an additional 11 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, each home built over the past five financial years has resulted in around 6.3 new residents per year.

This demand significantly outpaces supply, putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $389,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. There have been $6.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds shows approximately 69% of the construction activity per person and places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes. New development consists of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 402. Looking ahead to 2041, Grafton Surrounds is expected to grow by approximately 3,054 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Grafton Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 53 projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include the Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (planned for completion by 2021), and the Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre (commencing in late 2018). The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market performance in Grafton Surrounds lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Grafton Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 5.2% as of June 2025.

The area saw 1.6% employment growth in the past year. There are 6,699 employed residents, which is 1.6% above Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lags at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly specialized, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.2%, compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6% while labour force grew by 3.2%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Grafton Surrounds' median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $43,070. The average income stood at $51,507 during this period. In comparison, Rest of NSW's median and average incomes were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By March 2025, current estimates project the median income to be approximately $47,635 and the average income to be around $56,967, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Grafton Surrounds fell between the 7th and 13th percentiles nationally. In this region, 28.3% of individuals (5,048 people) had incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999. This aligns with metropolitan regions where a similar proportion of the population falls within this income range. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.4% income retention, total disposable income in Grafton Surrounds ranks at only the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Grafton Surrounds, as per the latest Census, 96.2% of dwellings were houses while 3.8% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds stood at 51.8%, with mortgaged properties at 35.7% and rented dwellings at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to $310 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,365 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates at 14.5%, compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted education initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common among these qualifications at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is high at 30.7%, with 11.9% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education. Fourteen schools serve 1,623 students across the area, which has varied educational conditions. The school mix includes eleven primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (9.1) are below the regional average (13.0), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 777 active stops operating within Grafton Surrounds, comprising various bus routes. These stops are serviced by 95 individual routes, providing a total of 890 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 385 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 127 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (8,277 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (12.1%) and mental health issues (9.7%). However, 60.2% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.7%. There is a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 25.1% (4,474 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 27.5%.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds, surveyed in August 2016, had a predominantly homogeneous population: 84.8% were Australian citizens, 90.9% were born in Australia, and 97.6% spoke English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 54.5%, slightly lower than the regional average of 55.6%. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%).

Notably, Aboriginal Australians were relatively more represented at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 5.5%, while Irish (8.6%) and German (3.4%) populations also showed slight differences from their respective regional averages of 9.0% and 3.3%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age is 48 years, which is significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 55-64 are particularly prominent, making up 16.4% of the population, while those aged 5-14 comprise only 10.2%. This is compared to Rest of NSW where the 5-14 group makes up 13.9%, and nationally it is 18.7%. The 2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.0% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.4%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Grafton Surrounds' age profile will evolve significantly. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to grow steadily, expanding by 569 people (29%) from 1,987 to 2,557. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 0% (8 people).