Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, Grafton Surrounds' population is approximately 18,139, an increase of 1,264 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.5% rise from the previous count of 16,875. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2025 was 18,099, with an additional 245 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' growth rate of 7.5% exceeded both the SA4 region (4.6%) and the Rest of NSW, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth contributing positively to growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Grafton Surrounds is projected to increase by 3,008 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 16.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 320 homes approved during this period. An additional 35 dwellings have been approved in FY26 so far. On average, for every home built between FY21 and FY25, there were 6.3 new residents annually, indicating that demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically influences prices upwards and intensifies competition among buyers.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $300,000. This financial year has seen $6.4 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes.

New development primarily consists of standalone homes (96.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (4.0%), preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 402 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Grafton Surrounds is projected to gain approximately 2,968 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 51 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Grafton Surrounds remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Grafton Surrounds has a balanced workforce consisting of white and blue collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of December 2025 is 4.3%. There was an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year.

As of December 2025, there are 6,887 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Grafton Surrounds lags behind Regional NSW at 46.5% compared to 60.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents work from home. Major employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction.

The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, while professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.2% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, labour force increased by 2.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Grafton Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers was $45,120 in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $53,513 during this period. This compares to Regional NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for median and average incomes. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,776 (median) and $59,036 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Grafton Surrounds fall between the 6th and 12th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 28.3% of the population (5,133 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to 2,999, which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing costs are modest in Grafton Surrounds, with 87.4% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Grafton Surrounds, as per the latest Census, 96.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 3.8% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds stood at 51.8%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 35.7% and rented dwellings making up 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.9%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (2.1%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton Surrounds has 838 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 95 different routes that together facilitate 962 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 384 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 137 trips per day, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's center point.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton Surrounds faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,452 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.1% and 9.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 60.2% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 26.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,714 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds, as per the findings, had a lower than average cultural diversity level. It was reported that 84.8% of its population were citizens, with 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion, accounting for 54.5% of Grafton Surrounds' population, which is slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%). Notably, there was an overrepresentation of Australian Aboriginal people at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 4.6%, Irish at 8.6% versus 8.8%, and German at 3.4% against the regional figure of 3.1%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age is 48 years, which is significantly older than Regional NSW's median of 43 and higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that the 55-64 year-old group comprises 16.0%, while the 5-14 year-old group makes up 9.9%. Post-2021 Census data reveals that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.3% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.0%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects that the 75 to 84 age cohort will grow by 513 people (34%), reaching 2,026 from an initial 1,512. Conversely, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 11.