Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Grafton Surrounds' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 17,867. This figure represents a rise of 992 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,875. The increase can be inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 17,755 as of June 2024 and an additional 218 validated new addresses since then. This results in a population density ratio of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 Census surpassed both the SA4 region's 5.1% and non-metro areas, indicating it as a leader in regional growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.6% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends project an above median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with Grafton Surrounds expected to increase by 3,139 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 16.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds has averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25320 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved so far in FY-26. Each year, on average, around 6.3 new residents are associated with every home built during these five years.

This indicates a significant demand outpacing supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction value of new homes is $389,000, lower than regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, there have been $6.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's predominantly residential character.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds exhibits approximately 69% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, implying relatively constrained buyer choice and increased interest in existing homes. New developments consist of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 402 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Grafton Surrounds is projected to grow by 3,027 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially exacerbating buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 53 potential impact projects. Key initiatives include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (2018), Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (2022), and Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre (scheduled for completion in Dec 2023). The following list details those likely to have the most relevance.

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The labour market performance in Grafton Surrounds lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Grafton Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 5.2% as of June 2025, and an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. The area has 6,699 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.6 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 3.2% versus the regional average of 5.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force grew by 3.2%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Statewide, NSW had an employment contraction of 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) by Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 5.9% in five years and 12.7% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Grafton Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $43,070. The average income stood at $51,507 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 respectively. Based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $48,501 (median) and $58,002 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Grafton Surrounds fall between the 6th and 12th percentiles nationally. In this region, 28.3% of the population, equating to 5,056 individuals, have incomes within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 29.9%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.4% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Grafton Surrounds, as per the latest Census, 96.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 3.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds stood at 51.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented ones at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. The median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,365 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.3% of all households, composed of 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

In the region, university qualification rates stand at 14.5%, significantly lower than New South Wales' average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational interventions. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent among qualifications, with a rate of 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, held by 47.5% of residents aged 15 and above, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis conducted in Grafton Surrounds indicates 777 active public transport stops, operating a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 95 individual routes, offering a combined total of 890 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as good, with residents situated an average of 385 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 127 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant challenges in Grafton Surrounds, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (around 8,290 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.1% and 9.7% of residents respectively. However, 60.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.7%. As of a specific date (not specified in the original text), 25.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,481 people), which is lower than the 27.5% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.5% of people in Grafton Surrounds, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.9%, Irish at 8.6%, and German at 3.4%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age is 48 years, which is materially older than Rest of NSW's 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile reveals that the 55-64 year-old group is particularly prominent at 16.4%, while the 5-14 year-old group is comparatively smaller at 10.2% compared to Rest of NSW. This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national average of 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.0% of the population between 2016 and 2021. Conversely, the 55-64 year-old cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.4%, and the 45-54 year-old group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that Grafton Surrounds' age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 year-old cohort projected to grow steadily, expanding by 566 people (28%) from 1,990 to 2,557. In contrast, the 15-24 year-old cohort shows minimal growth of just 0% (6 people).