Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to AreaSearch research, the population of Grafton Surrounds stands at approximately 18,139 as of May 2026. This figure represents a rise of 1,264 residents, which corresponds to a 7.5% increase from the 16,875 people recorded in the 2021 Census. The adjustment is derived from an ABS estimated resident population of 18,099 dated June 2025 combined with 245 newly validated addresses added after the Census date. This population size translates to a density of 2.1 persons per square kilometer, indicating generous space availability for each individual. The 7.5% expansion since the 2021 census outpaced both the SA4 region at 4.6% and the Rest of NSW, establishing Grafton Surrounds as a leading growth area. Recent population gains were mainly fueled by interstate migration, accounting for roughly 88.0% of total additions, while overseas migration and natural growth also contributed positively.

AreaSearch relies on ABS and Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. When such data is unavailable, AreaSearch applies NSW State Government SA2 projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Age-specific growth rates from these models are then applied across all areas for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Future projections suggest above median growth typical of national non-metropolitan regions, forecasting an increase of 3,008 residents by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP figures, representing a total gain of 16.4% over the 16-year span.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds has seen an average of 64 new dwelling approvals each year, totaling 320 homes approved from FY-21 to FY-25 and 42 approvals in FY-26. Over the same five-year period, the area averaged 7.3 new residents per home built, indicating that demand continues to exceed supply, which typically drives prices higher and intensifies buyer competition, while construction costs average $300,000 per new home. This financial year, $6.4 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, hinting at the region’s residential focus.

When compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds shows roughly two-thirds the per capita rate of new dwelling approvals and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting fewer housing choices for buyers and heightened interest in existing properties. The new housing stock is composed of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density units, reflecting a low-density profile that appeals to buyers seeking more space. An estimated 410 people reside in the area per dwelling approval, underscoring a calm, low-intensity development setting.

Population projections suggest Grafton Surrounds will add 2,968 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If development activity remains unchanged, housing supply could fall short of population growth, likely heightening buyer competition and encouraging further price appreciation.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives can have the greatest influence on an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 51 projects that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Treelands Drive Community Centre Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Grafton Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Grafton Surrounds features a balanced workforce with white and blue collar employment, essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.7%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of March 2026, 6,794 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.6% above Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation lags significantly (46.1% compared to Regional NSW's 60.6%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction. The area has particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical shows lower representation at 3.2% versus the regional average of 5.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to March 2026, employment levels increased by 0.4% and labour force decreased by 0.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Grafton Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Grafton Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch’s compilation of Australian Taxation Office data for financial year 2023, the income level in Grafton Surrounds SA2 falls below the national average. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $45,120, while the average income reaches $53,513. These figures contrast with those for Regional NSW, where the median and average incomes stand at $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Applying a Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.32% from financial year 2023, projected values for March 2026 would be approximately $49,776 for the median and $59,036 for the average. Census data from 2021 indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Grafton Surrounds occupy the 6th to 12th percentiles on a national scale. Specifically, 28.3% of the population, comprising 5,133 people, earn between $1,500 and $2,999, a proportion similar to the 29.9% found in the metropolitan region. Although housing expenses are relatively low, allowing residents to retain 87.4% of their income, the overall disposable income places the area at the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Residential structures in Grafton Surrounds, according to the most recent Census data, showed that 96.2% were houses and 3.8% fell into other dwelling categories such as semi-detached units, apartments, and other types, whereas Regional NSW contained 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in Grafton Surrounds exceeded those in Regional NSW, standing at 51.8%, with the remaining properties being either mortgaged at 35.7% or rented at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage payment in this locality was notably lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,365, and the median weekly rent was $300, in contrast to Regional NSW figures of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national scale, mortgage repayments in Grafton Surrounds are considerably less than the Australian average of $1,863, and rental costs are markedly below the national benchmark of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Couples with children account for 25.3% of all households, while couples without children represent 36.7%, and single parent families make up 10.2%. Together, these family households comprise 73.3% of the total. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, which includes lone person households at 23.2% and group households at 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, exceeding the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

University qualification rates stand at 14.5%, which is significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees account for 10.3%, while postgraduate qualifications make up 2.2% and graduate diplomas represent 2.0%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.5%, and certificates represent 37.0%. Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 838 active transport stops operating within Grafton Surrounds comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 95 individual routes, collectively providing 962 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 384 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. Some 14.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 137 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch evaluated mortality rates and chronic disease prevalence in Grafton Surrounds, revealing that common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover was found to be extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,452 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW.

The national average is 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.1 and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 60.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 26.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,714 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. , with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds shows lower than average cultural diversity, with 84.8% of residents being citizens, 90.9% having been born in Australia, and 97.6% using English exclusively at home. Christianity dominates the religious landscape, accounting for 54.5% of the local population, which is slightly less than the 55.9% found throughout Regional NSW. When examining ancestry based on parents’ country of birth, the leading groups are English at 32.6%, Australian at 32.5%, and Scottish at 9.1%.

Certain ethnic groups also show notable differences: Australian Aboriginal people are overrepresented at 4.9% compared to the regional 4.6%, Irish individuals make up 8.6% versus 8.8% regionally, and Germans represent 3.4% against a regional figure of 3.1%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds has a median age of 48 years, which is considerably older than the 43 years recorded for Regional NSW and well above the Australian median of 38. The age profile indicates that people aged 55 to 64 are especially prominent at 16.0%, whereas the 5 to 14 group is relatively smaller at 9.9% compared to Regional NSW. Post-2021 Census data reveals that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.5% to 8.3% of the population. At the same time, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 18.1% to 16.0% and the 45 to 54 group has fallen from 13.9% to 12.3%. Demographic modeling predicts that Grafton Surrounds's age structure will change substantially by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is forecast to expand steadily, growing by 513 people, or 34%, from 1,512 to 2,026. Meanwhile, the population in the 15 to 24 age range is anticipated to decline by 11.