Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Grafton Surrounds' population was around 18,097 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,222 people from the 2021 Census count of 16,875. The growth is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 17,755 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' 7.2% population growth since the 2021 census surpassed Rest of NSW's 5.7%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive influences.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate above median growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with Grafton Surrounds expected to increase by 3,139 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 15.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 320 homes approved during this period. In FY26, up until now, there have been 25 new dwelling approvals. This averages out to around 6.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

The demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically leads to upward pressure on prices and increased competition among buyers. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $300,000. This financial year has seen $6.4 million in commercial development approvals, indicating the area's residential character.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds has approximately two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. New development consists predominantly of standalone homes at 96.0%, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 4.0%, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 402 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Grafton Surrounds will gain approximately 2,797 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by local infrastructure changes. AreaSearch has identified 53 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (planned for completion on 1st October 2024), and Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre (scheduled to open in June 2026). Below is a list of most relevant projects.

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Grafton Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Grafton Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 4.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year. There are 6,808 residents employed currently, which is 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

However, workforce participation lags at 47.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction. The area has a significant specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.2% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9%, while labour force increased by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a potential future demand within Grafton Surrounds. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Grafton Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers was $45,120 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $53,513 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest the median income in Grafton Surrounds would be approximately $49,118 and the average income around $58,254. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Grafton Surrounds fell between the 6th and 12th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 28.3% of the population (5,121 individuals) had an income range of $1,500 to $2,999, which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for retention of 87.4% of income, total disposable income ranked at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Grafton Surrounds' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds stood at 51.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented ones at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to $330 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower at $1,365 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 14.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Grafton Surrounds indicates that there are 838 active transport stops currently operating. These stops primarily serve buses, with a total of 95 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 962 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 384 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents.

On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect the impact of COVID-19 conditions on commuting patterns. The service frequency averages 137 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, displaying the locations of the 100 nearest transport stops to the area's centerpoint.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton Surrounds faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,433 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.1% and 9.7% of residents respectively. However, 60.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 25.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,538 people), which is higher than the 23.0% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds, surveyed in August 2016, had a population with 84.8% citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.5%. This figure is slightly lower than the regional average of 55.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 4.9%, compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Irish descent was also slightly higher than the regional average, with 8.6% versus 8.8%. German ancestry was present at 3.4%, marginally higher than the regional figure of 3.1%.

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age of 48 years is significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows a prominence of individuals aged 55-64, with this group comprising 16.4% of the population, compared to the national average of 11.2%. The 5-14 age group is smaller than in Rest of NSW, making up only 10.2% of Grafton Surrounds' population. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.0%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.4%. The 45-54 age group has also decreased, falling from 13.9% to 12.6%. Demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Grafton Surrounds' age profile by 2041. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to grow steadily, increasing from 2,016 to 2,557 people, a rise of 540 individuals (27%). Conversely, the number of individuals aged 15-24 is expected to decrease.