Grafton Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Grafton Surrounds's population is around 18,120 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,245 people (7.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,875 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,755 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 230 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2.1 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Grafton Surrounds's 7.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 77.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,139 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 15.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds has averaged around 64 new dwelling approvals annually, with 320 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 29 so far in FY-26. At an average of 6.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new homes are being built at an average construction value of $300,000. Additionally, $6.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton Surrounds has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places in the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established homes. New development consists of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 402 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Grafton Surrounds will gain 2,774 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Grafton Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 53 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, and Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Grafton Surrounds remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Grafton Surrounds possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and 3.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,887 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.4% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (47.5% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction. The area has particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.2% versus the regional average of 5.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% and the labour force increased by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Grafton Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Grafton Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Grafton Surrounds SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Grafton Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers is $45,120 and the average income stands at $53,513, which compares to figures for Regional NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $49,118 (median) and $58,254 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Grafton Surrounds all fall between the 6th and 12th percentiles nationally. The data shows 28.3% of the population (5,127 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. While housing costs are modest with 87.4% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Grafton Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Grafton Surrounds was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 51.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (35.7%) or rented (12.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,365, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 73.3% of all households, comprising 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 838 active transport stops operating within Grafton Surrounds, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 95 individual routes, collectively providing 962 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 384 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 14.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 137 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton Surrounds faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,443 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW, while the national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.1% and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 60.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 25.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,597 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population being citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Grafton Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 54.5% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Grafton Surrounds are English, comprising 32.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 32.5% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 9.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 4.9% of Grafton Surrounds (vs 4.6% regionally), Irish at 8.6% (vs 8.8%) and German at 3.4% (vs 3.1%).

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds's median age of 48 years stands materially older than Regional NSW's 43 and is significantly higher than the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (16.0%), while the 5 - 14 group is comparatively smaller (10.0%) than in Regional NSW. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.0% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 10.4% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.0% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.9% to 12.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Grafton Surrounds's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow steadily, expanding by 478 people (33%) from 1,451 to 1,930. In contrast, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 24.