Grafton Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Grafton Surrounds are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of August 2025, Grafton Surrounds' population is approximately 17,840, reflecting a growth of 965 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 5.7% rise from the previous population count of 16,875. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,755 in June 2024 and an additional 207 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.1 persons per square kilometer. Grafton Surrounds' growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.8%) and the non-metro area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.6% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with Grafton Surrounds expected to increase by 3,139 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 17.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grafton Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grafton Surrounds has averaged approximately 64 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 320 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved in FY26 so far. This averages out to around 6.3 new residents per year for every home built during these years.

The demand has significantly outpaced supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $389,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. In the current financial year, there have been $6.4 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Comparatively, Grafton Surrounds shows approximately 69% of the construction activity per person relative to the Rest of NSW. Nationally, it places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes. The new development consists of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 402, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead to 2041, Grafton Surrounds is expected to grow by 3,054 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Grafton Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 53 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment (scheduled for completion on 1st June 2023), and Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre (expected to open in late 2024). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Grafton Surrounds lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Grafton Surrounds has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, and significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.2% as of June 2025.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. As of June 2025, 6,699 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Grafton Surrounds was 46.1%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction.

Employment specialization was particularly high in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with a share of 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 3.2% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, while labour force grew by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and an increase in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Grafton Surrounds' employment mix indicates potential local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Grafton Surrounds' income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Grafton Surrounds' median income among taxpayers is $43,070 and the average income stands at $51,507. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $48,501 (median) and $58,002 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Grafton Surrounds all fall between the 7th and 13th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 28.3% of the population (5,048 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. While housing costs are modest with 87.4% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Grafton Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Grafton Surrounds' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.2% houses and 3.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton Surrounds was 51.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,365, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Grafton Surrounds was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,365 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.3% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 36.7% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Grafton Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 47.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (37.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.7%, comprising primary education (11.9%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (2.1%).

There are 14 schools serving 1,623 students in the area, with varied educational conditions across Grafton Surrounds. The educational mix includes 11 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (9.1) fall below the regional average (13.0), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton Surrounds has 777 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 95 different routes that together facilitate 890 weekly passenger trips. The transport system is rated as having good accessibility, with residents on average located 385 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 127 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant challenges in Grafton Surrounds, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (~8,277 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (12.1%) and mental health issues (9.7%). Sixty point two percent declare no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.7%. Twenty-five point one percent of residents are aged 65 or over (4,474 people), lower than the Rest of NSW's 27.5%.

The latest Census data sees Grafton Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton Surrounds showed lower cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population being citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.5%, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (32.5%), and Scottish (9.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.9% (vs regional 5.5%), Irish at 8.6% (vs 9.0%), and German at 3.4% (vs 3.3%).

Grafton Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton Surrounds' median age is 48 years, which is notably higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile reveals that the 55-64 year-olds are particularly prominent at 16.4%, while the 5-14 year-olds make up 10.2% of the population, both figures being notably different from Rest of NSW's statistics. This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.5% to 8.0% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 18.1% to 16.4%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that Grafton Surrounds' age profile will undergo significant changes by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to grow steadily by 569 people (29%), increasing from 1,987 to 2,557. Conversely, the 15-24 age cohort is expected to show minimal growth of just 0%, adding only 8 people.