Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Grafton's population was 19,255 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it is estimated to be around 19,883, reflecting an increase of 628 people (3.3%) since the Census date. This change is inferred from the ABS's estimated resident population of 19,720 in June 2024 and an additional 129 validated new addresses since then. The population density as of November 2025 is approximately 187 persons per square kilometer. Grafton's growth rate of 3.3% since the Census places it within 2.4 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.7%). Interstate migration contributed around 67.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Grafton's population is projected to increase by approximately 2,148 persons, reflecting a gain of 10.0% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has received approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 274 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 new residents arrive per new home each year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand in the market. The average construction value for new properties is $289,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

In this financial year, $76.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% medium and high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges. This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 82.0% houses), indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. The area has an estimated 816 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

By 2041, Grafton is projected to gain 1,985 residents, maintaining a reasonable construction pace with population growth but potentially increasing competition among buyers.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects potentially impacting the region. Key projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Grafton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.0% as of September 2025, showing a 1.0% increase over the previous year. This rate was higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation lagged behind Rest of NSW at 50.9%. As of Census responses in September 2025, only 8.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Grafton showed strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0%, while the labour force grew by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.0 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2023, Grafton SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $46,438 and an average income of $54,287. These figures are lower than the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 for Rest of NSW respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Grafton would be approximately $50,552 and $59,097 based on an 8.86% growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Grafton fall between the 8th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 28.4% of Grafton's population (5,646 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is most prevalent at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Grafton, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Grafton, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.4% of dwellings were houses while 17.6% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This distribution was comparable to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton stood at 37.8%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (28.3%) or rented (33.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Grafton was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.2%, consisting of 32.9% lone person households and 3.3% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (32.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 203 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 104 routes, providing 1,402 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 205 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%, with 5% walking. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.2, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 200 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~9,305 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (10.8%), with 57.7% claiming no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,612 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton, surveyed in June 2016, had a predominantly homogeneous population: 91.6% were citizens, 93.6% were born in Australia, and 96.7% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, practiced by 56.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 55.9%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (34.5%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.3%) were the top groups.

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (7.5%) and German (3.3%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Scottish ancestry was slightly underrepresented at 7.5% versus the regional average of 8.0%.

Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Grafton's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent percentage of 5-14 year-olds (13.2%) and a relatively smaller percentage of 65-74 year-olds (11.0%) compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 10.4% to 11.7%, while the 65-74 age group has declined from 12.2% to 11.0%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Grafton. The 35-44 age cohort is expected to grow by 21%, adding 488 residents to reach a total of 2,815. Conversely, population declines are forecasted for the 55-64 and 65-74 age cohorts.