Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Grafton's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stood at 19,973 by May 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 718 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 19,255. The increase is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 19,905 in June 2025 and an additional 159 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 188 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person for potential development. Grafton's growth rate of 3.7% since the census is close to its SA4 region's growth (4.6%), suggesting strong fundamentals. Interstate migration drove this growth, contributing approximately 70.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year: 2021) are employed. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Following current demographic trends, Grafton is projected to increase by 1,919 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 9.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has recorded approximately 54 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 274 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.5 new residents arrive per year for each new home over these five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $289,000, which aligns with regional patterns. This financial year, Grafton has recorded $76.9 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton has approximately half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, implying somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. This level is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction in Grafton comprises 63.0% detached dwellings and 37.0% attached dwellings, demonstrating an expanding range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives.

This marks a significant shift from the existing housing pattern, which is currently 82.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population density in Grafton is 816 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Grafton's population is forecasted to grow by 1,851 residents through to 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, although buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects potentially influencing the area. Key projects are Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct. Below is a list detailing those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Grafton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Grafton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 6.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% in the past year. As of December 2025, 7,564 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.9% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 50.5%, significantly lower than Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census data shows that only 8.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Grafton has a notable concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 4.4% and labour force by 2.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points. Conversely, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2% and labour force decline by 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Grafton SA2 is below the national average. The median assessed income is $46,438 and the average income stands at $54,287. In contrast, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Grafton's median income would be approximately $51,230 as of March 2026, and the average income would be around $59,889 by that date. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 8th and 12th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 28.4% of locals (5,672 people) earn between $800 and $1,499 annually, differing from the broader area where the predominant cohort falls within the $1,500 to $2,999 category at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Grafton, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Grafton, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This is similar to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton stood at 37.8%, mirroring Regional NSW's rate. The rest of the dwellings were either mortgaged (28.3%) or rented (33.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Grafton was $1,300, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Grafton was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8 percent of all households, including 20.6 percent couples with children, 26.2 percent couples without children, and 15.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2 percent, with lone person households at 32.9 percent and group households comprising 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (32.7%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including primary education (10.8%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 203 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 104 routes, providing 1,402 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 205 meters to the nearest one. Most residents commute outwards from this primarily residential area. Cars are the dominant mode of transport at 92%, while 5% walk. The average vehicle ownership is 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 8.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 200 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The map accompanying this information shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 9,347 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.2% and 10.8% of residents respectively. However, 57.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 23.6% of residents aged 65 and over (4,705 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton, as per the census data from June 2016, had a population with 91.6% being Australian citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Grafton, comprising 56.7% of its population, slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.5%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were more represented in Grafton at 7.5%, compared to 4.6% regionally. German ancestry was also slightly higher at 3.3% versus 3.1% regionally, and Scottish ancestry was notably lower at 7.5% compared to the regional average of 8.0%.

Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Grafton's median age in 2021 was 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile showed that those aged 5-14 were prominent at 13.0%, while the 65-74 group was smaller at 11.2% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group grew from 10.4% to 11.8% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort declined from 12.5% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Grafton, with the strongest growth projected for the 25-34 age group at 19%, adding 434 residents to reach a total of 2,689. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.