Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Grafton's population is around 19,892 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 637 people (3.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,255 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,720 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 133 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 187 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Grafton's 3.3% growth since the census positions it within 2.6 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 2,148 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 9.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has recorded around 54 residential properties granted approval annually, with 274 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 18 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.5 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $289,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $76.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Grafton has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places in the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established dwellings. This level is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 63.0% detached dwellings and 37.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 82.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of 816 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Grafton will gain 1,976 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 9 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Grafton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Grafton has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 6.9%, and 4.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,564 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.9% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (51.2% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 4.4% alongside the labour force increasing by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Grafton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Grafton SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $46,438 while the average income stands at $54,287. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,552 (median) and $59,097 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 8th and 12th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 28.4% of locals (5,649 people) in the $800 - 1,499 category, diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Grafton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Grafton was in line with that of Regional NSW, at 37.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.3%) or rented (33.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 63.8% of all households, comprising 20.6% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.9% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.4%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (32.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 203 active transport stops operating within Grafton, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 104 individual routes, collectively providing 1,402 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 8.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 200 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Grafton, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~9,309 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.2% and 10.8% of residents, respectively, while 57.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,591 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 91.6% of its population being citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Grafton is Christianity, which makes up 56.7% of people in Grafton, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Grafton are Australian, comprising 34.5% of the population, English, comprising 30.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 7.5% of Grafton (vs 4.6% regionally), German at 3.3% (vs 3.1%) and Scottish at 7.5% (vs 8.0%).

Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 42 years, Grafton's median age is similar to the Regional NSW average of 43 while considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 5 - 14 year-olds are particularly prominent (13.1%), while the 65 - 74 group is comparatively smaller (11.0%) than in Regional NSW. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.4% to 12.0% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 11.0% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Grafton. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 20%, adding 453 residents to reach 2,737. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.