Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Grafton's population is approximately 19,864. This figure represents a growth of 609 people, an increase of 3.2% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 19,255. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,720 as of June 2024 and an additional 129 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 187 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Grafton's growth rate since the census is 3.2%, which is within 1.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 5.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Grafton is expected to grow by approximately 2,148 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.1% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has received approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 274 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 new residents arrive per year for each new home approved between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new properties is $289,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

In FY-26, $76.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton has roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while boosting demand for established properties. This lower activity is indicative of a mature market with potential development constraints. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% medium to high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options, marking a shift from the current 82.0% houses pattern. The area's estimated population per dwelling approval is 816 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts project Grafton will gain 2,004 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Grafton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.0% in the past year, showing a growth of 1.0%.

As of September 2025, 7,421 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Grafton stands at 49.5%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Notably, public administration & safety accounts for 1.6 times the regional level of employment.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is underrepresented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels in Grafton increased by 1.0%, while the labour force grew by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.0 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Grafton SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $44,000 and an average income of $51,889. These figures are below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,548 (median) and $58,432 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Grafton fall between the 8th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that 28.4% of Grafton's population (5,641 individuals) have incomes within the $800 - $1,499 range, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures in Grafton are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grafton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.3% and rented ones at 33.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Grafton was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 63.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.9% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 32.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 174 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 106 unique routes, facilitating 1,387 weekly passenger trips in total. The city's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 205 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 198 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 9,177 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (10.8%). About 57.7% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 58.7%. As of 2021, approximately 23.2% of Grafton's population is aged 65 and over, totaling around 4,608 people, which is lower than the Rest of NSW's 27.5%. The health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton's population showed low diversity, with 91.6% being citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.7%, compared to 55.6% in Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.5%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 7.5% than the regional average of 5.5%. German representation was similar at 3.3%, while Scottish representation was lower at 7.5% compared to the regional 8.9%.

Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Grafton's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 are prominent at 13.2%, while the 65-74 group is smaller at 11.0% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.4% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 11.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Grafton. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 21%, adding 490 residents to reach 2,815. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.