Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to AreaSearch’s assessment, the population of Grafton stands at approximately 19,973 as of May 2026. This figure represents a rise of 718 individuals, which corresponds to a 3.7% increase compared to the 2021 Census count of 19,255 residents. The adjustment is derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 19,905 recorded as of June 2025, plus 159 newly validated addresses registered after the Census date. With this population level, the area achieves a density of 188 persons per square kilometer, offering ample space per resident and leaving room for potential expansion. The 3.7% growth since the last census places Grafton within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 regional average of 4.6%, indicating strong competitive growth conditions. Recent population gains have been largely fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 70.3% of total growth in recent years.

AreaSearch relies on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, published in 2024 and based on 2022 data. For SA2 areas excluded from this dataset, the organization uses projections from the NSW State Government, released in 2022 with 2021 as the baseline. Age-specific growth rates from these aggregated models are also applied to all areas covering the period from 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic projections suggest Grafton will experience population growth slightly below the national median for non-metropolitan regions, with an anticipated increase of 1,919 people by 2041, bringing the total to reflect a 9.3% gain over the 16-year span based on the latest annual ERP figures.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has maintained an annual average of 54 new dwelling approvals, which adds up to 274 homes across the last 5 financial years. During the current fiscal period, 51 approvals have been logged so far. Over the five-year span from FY-21 to FY-25, the region has seen an average of 2 new residents arriving for each newly approved home, indicating a balanced market that sustains stable conditions. New properties are being built with an average construction cost of $289,000, aligning with typical regional values.

Commercial development has also been active, with $76.9 million worth of approvals recorded this financial year, signaling strong local business engagement. When compared to the Rest of NSW, Grafton demonstrates roughly half the construction activity per capita and ranks at the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat restricted buyer choices while increasing demand for existing properties. This level of activity is lower than the national average, which reflects a mature market and hints at potential development limitations. The housing mix includes 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing proportion of attached units that cater to various price points, ranging from large family residences to more affordable compact units. This shift contrasts sharply with the current pattern of 82.0% houses, pointing to reduced availability of developable land and adaptation to changing lifestyle and affordability requirements.

The ratio of 821 people per dwelling approval highlights the area’s tranquil and low-intensity development character. Population projections suggest Grafton will attract 1,851 new residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is progressing at a steady pace in line with growth expectations, though rising population numbers may lead to increased competition among buyers.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives can have a profound effect on an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 8 projects that may influence the region. Among the key initiatives are the Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct. The list below highlights those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Grafton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Grafton maintains a balanced mix of white and blue collar jobs with essential services well represented, an unemployment rate of 7.1%, and an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year. As of March 2026, 7,471 residents are employed while the unemployment rate sits at 3.0% above Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation lags significantly at 50.0% compared to Regional NSW's 60.6%. Census data indicates that only 8.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Public administration & safety shows particularly strong specialization in this area with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. Local employment opportunities exist but many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to March 2026, employment levels increased by 2.1% and the labour force increased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Grafton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated the most recent postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, revealing that the Grafton SA2 recorded a median income for taxpayers of $46,438 and an average income of $54,287. These figures are lower than the national average, while Regional NSW reported figures of $52,390 and $65,215 for median and average income respectively. With Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, projected estimates for March 2026 stand at approximately $51,230 for median income and $59,889 for average income. Data from the 2021 Census indicate that household, family and personal incomes in Grafton rank between the 8th and 12th percentiles on a national scale. Income distribution patterns show that 28.4% of the population, which amounts to 5,672 individuals, earn between $800 and $1,499, whereas the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket is the most common in regional areas at 29.9%. Housing affordability challenges are pronounced, with only 83.4% of income available for housing, placing the area at the 10th percentile.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the most recent Census data, the residential breakdown in Grafton showed that 82.4 percent of the structures were houses, while the remaining 17.6 percent consisted of other dwelling types such as semi-detached units, apartments, and other categories. This distribution closely mirrors the figures for Regional NSW, which recorded 82.6 percent houses and 17.4 percent other dwellings. Home ownership rates in Grafton aligned with those across Regional NSW, standing at 37.8 percent. The rest of the housing stock was divided between mortgaged properties at 28.3 percent and rented units at 33.9 percent. Financial metrics also reflect a more affordable housing market in the region. The median monthly mortgage payment in Grafton was notably lower than the Regional NSW benchmark of $1,300. Weekly rental costs averaged $300, which contrasts with the higher Regional NSW averages of $1,733 for mortgages and $330 for rent. On a national scale, Grafton's housing costs remain significantly beneath the Australian averages, with mortgage repayments falling short of the $1,863 national figure and weekly rents well under the $375 national standard.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

At 63.8%, family households account for the majority of all households, which includes 20.6% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Lone person households make up 32.9% of the total, while group households account for 3.3%, bringing the non-family household share to 36.2%. The median household size stands at 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The region encounters academic hurdles, as the rate of university qualifications stands at 13.4%, which is significantly lower than the New South Wales average of 32.2%. This gap presents both a problem and a chance for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary credential, at 9.7%, while postgraduate qualifications account for 2.0% and graduate diplomas for 1.7%. Vocational training is widely held, with 41.7% of people aged 15 and over possessing trade or technical credentials, including advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 32.7%.

School and college involvement remains strong, with 28.1% of residents actively attending formal schooling. This figure covers 10.8% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton features 203 active transport stops that include both trains and buses. These stops are covered by 104 distinct routes, delivering 1,402 weekly passenger trips in total. Accessibility is considered good since residents generally live 205 meters from the closest stop. As a mainly residential zone, the majority of residents travel outward for work, with cars accounting for 92% of trips and walking for 5%. Each dwelling has an average of 1.2 vehicles, which is less than the regional average. A modest 8.0% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census; this figure might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

On average, all routes operate 200 trips daily, which works out to roughly 6 weekly trips per stop. The linked map displays the 100 closest stops to the area’s centrepoint.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality figures and the spread of long-term illnesses, significant health concerns are apparent throughout Grafton, with various ailments affecting both youth and the elderly while only about 47% of the total population, which amounts to roughly 9,347 individuals, holds private health insurance. This figure is lower than the 51.9% coverage rate seen across Regional NSW and falls short of the national average of 55.7%. The leading health problems identified in the locality include arthritis and psychological disorders, which affect 11.2% and 10.8% of the community, respectively, whereas 57.7% of locals report being entirely free from medical problems, a proportion that is below the 63.3% reported in Regional NSW.

Adults of working age experience considerable health difficulties, particularly regarding high levels of persistent conditions. The community includes 23.6% of residents who are 65 years of age or older, representing 4,705 people. Health results for this older demographic show certain difficulties, though national rankings generally match those of the wider population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton ranks below average for cultural diversity, with 91.6% of residents being citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% using English as their sole home language. Christianity dominates the religious landscape in Grafton, accounting for 56.7% of the population, which is slightly higher than the 55.9% rate observed across Regional NSW. When examining ancestry based on parents' country of birth, the leading groups in Grafton are Australian at 34.5%, English at 30.9%, and Irish at 8.3%.

Certain ethnic communities show distinct patterns of representation compared to regional averages, including Australian Aboriginal people who are overrepresented at 7.5% versus 4.6% regionally, Germans at 3.3% compared to 3.1%, and Scots at 7.5% against a regional figure of 8.0%.

Grafton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Grafton's median age stands at 42 years, which is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 but notably higher than Australia's national figure of 38 years. The age distribution reveals a particularly large share of 5 - 14 year-olds at 13.0%, whereas the 65 - 74 age bracket is relatively small at 11.2%, compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has expanded from 10.4% to 11.8% of the total population. On the other hand, the 55 to 64 age cohort has shrunk from 12.5% down to 11.4%. Demographic projections for 2041 suggest major shifts in Grafton's population structure. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to experience the most significant increase, growing by 19% and gaining 434 new residents to reach a total of 2,689. Meanwhile, both the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups are forecast to see population declines.