Grafton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Grafton's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stands at 19,844 as of August 2025. This figure represents a rise of 589 individuals, marking a 3.1% increase since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 19,255. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,720 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 120 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 186 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential for further development. Grafton's 3.1% growth since the census places it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth in the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, population projections indicate an increase just below the median of regional areas nationally, with the area expected to grow by 2,148 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 10.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has seen approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides this data on a financial year basis, totaling 274 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25, with 6 so far in FY-26. Each new home attracts an average of 1.5 new residents per year over the past five years, indicating balanced supply and demand, supporting stable market conditions. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $342,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $76.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong local business investment. Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks at the 41st percentile nationally, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing properties. New building activity consists of 63% standalone homes and 37% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing alternatives from traditional family housing to more affordable compact dwellings. This marks a significant shift from the current 82% houses, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The area has an estimated 816 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Future projections indicate Grafton adding 2,024 residents by 2041, with construction maintaining a reasonable pace but potential growing competition for buyers as population increases.

Grafton has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 10 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, and Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Grafton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Grafton has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 8.8% as of June 2024, showing relative stability over the past year compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

As of June 2025, 7,341 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate has risen to 9.0%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags at 49.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety, with strong specialization in the latter (1.6 times regional level). However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, at 2.7% versus Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, while labour force grew by 3.5%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 3.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Grafton's growth could be approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Grafton had a median income among taxpayers of $44,000. The average income stood at $51,889. This was below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had levels of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Grafton would be approximately $48,664 (median) and $57,389 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fell between the 9th and 13th percentiles nationally. Distribution data showed that 28.4% of the population (5,635 individuals) fell within the $800 - 1,499 income range, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Grafton, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grafton's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, were 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton was at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.3% and rented ones at 33.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Grafton was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Grafton was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, consisting of 20.6% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.9% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (32.7%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including primary education (10.8%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (2.5%). Grafton has a robust network of 10 schools educating approximately 3,551 students. Education provision is balanced with 7 primary and 3 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (17.9 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 13.0), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 174 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 106 unique routes operating weekly, providing a total of 1,387 passenger trips.

Residents enjoy good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 205 meters to the nearest one. Service frequency is high, with an average of 198 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (9,167 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (10.8%). Conversely, 57.7% reported having no medical ailments, compared to 58.7% in Rest of NSW. Grafton has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 23.2% (4,603 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 27.5%. Senior health outcomes mirror those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton, as per the latest data from [insert date], showed lower cultural diversity with 91.6% citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.7%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 55.6%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.5%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation in Grafton was higher at 7.5% compared to the regional average of 5.5%, while German and Scottish representations matched or were slightly lower than the regional averages respectively.

Grafton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that children aged 5-14 make up a significant portion (13.2%) while those aged 65-74 are relatively smaller (11.0%) compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the population of individuals aged 35-44 has grown from 10.4% to 11.7%. Conversely, the population of those aged 65-74 has decreased from 12.2% to 11.0%. By 2041, Grafton's demographic is projected to change substantially. The 35-44 age group is expected to grow by 21%, adding 493 residents to reach a total of 2,815. Meanwhile, populations aged 55-64 and 65-74 are forecasted to decline.