Grafton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Grafton's population is around 19,844 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 589 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,255. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,720 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 120 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 186 persons per square kilometer. Grafton's growth of 3.1% since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.8%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Grafton is expected to grow by 2,148 persons, recording a gain of 10.2% in total over the 17 years, just below the median growth rate of regional areas nationally.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grafton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Grafton has received approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 274 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 7 recorded approvals. On average, 1.5 new residents arrived per year for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions with an average construction value of $342,000 per dwelling.

In FY-26, $76.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. New building activity comprises 63% standalone homes and 37% medium-high density housing, marking a shift from existing patterns (82% houses). This indicates diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. The area has an estimated 816 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts project Grafton will gain 2,024 residents by 2041, with construction maintaining a reasonable pace but potential competition growing as population increases.

Grafton has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely influencing this region. Notable projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Lifestyle Centre, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Grafton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.8% as of June 2025, which is 5.1% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Grafton lags at 49.5%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. The area specializes particularly in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.7% of Grafton's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Local employment opportunities exist, but many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment in Grafton increased by 0.1%, while the labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 3.1 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Grafton had a median income among taxpayers of $44,000 with the average level standing at $51,889. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $49,459 and $62,998 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $48,664 (median) and $57,389 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 9th and 13th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 28.4% of the population (5,635 individuals) fall within the $800 - 1,499 income range, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grafton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton was at 37.8%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (28.3%) or rented (33.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. The median weekly rent figure in Grafton was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 63.8 percent of all households. They consist of 20.6 percent couples with children, 26.2 percent couples without children, and 15.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2 percent, with lone person households at 32.9 percent and group households making up 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (32.7%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including 10.8% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education. Grafton has a network of 10 schools educating approximately 3,551 students. The area has varied educational conditions, with balanced provision - seven primary and three secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (17.9 places per 100 residents vs 13.0 regionally), indicating Grafton serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 174 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 106 different routes operating in total, providing a combined 1,387 weekly passenger trips.

The city's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average being located 205 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 198 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~9,167 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (10.8%). Conversely, 57.7% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 58.7%. Grafton has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.2% (4,603 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 27.5%. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with its population comprising 91.6% citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Grafton, accounting for 56.7%, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups are Australian (34.5%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher than average at 7.5% in Grafton versus 5.5% regionally, while German and Scottish representations are similar to regional averages at 3.3% each for Germans and 7.5% for Scots compared to 3.3% and 8.9% respectively across Rest of NSW.

Grafton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that 5-14 year-olds are particularly prominent at 13.2%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 11.0% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.4% to 11.7% of the population. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Grafton. The 35-44 age group shows the strongest projected growth at 21%, adding 493 residents to reach 2,815. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.