Junction Hill

Population growth drivers in Junction Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Junction Hill statistical area (Lv2) is around 1,623 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,547 people, marking a growth of 76 individuals or approximately 4.9%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, is 1,607 people. This results in a density ratio of 225 persons per square kilometer. Since the Census, Junction Hill's growth rate of 4.9% is within 0.8 percentage points of the non-metro area's rate of 5.7%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for the Junction Hill (SA2), adopted from ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, indicate a median population increase just below that of national regional areas by 2041. Specifically, the area is expected to gain 149 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall growth rate of 6.4% over those 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Junction Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Junction Hill averaged approximately 7 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 38 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. This averages to about 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

The average construction value of these dwellings is approximately $342,000. In comparison to the Rest of NSW, Junction Hill records around 13.0% less building activity per person but ranks in the 58th percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. Recent construction comprises about 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from the current pattern of predominantly single-family housing (94.0%). This suggests decreasing developable land availability and increasing demand for affordable compact alternatives.

Junction Hill has around 263 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 104 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Junction Hill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. In total, zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane (planned completion 2023), Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements (commenced July 2021), and Queensland New South Wales Interconnector (expected completion 2026). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

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Junction Hill shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Junction Hill has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025593 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Junction Hill lags at 49.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. Public administration & safety shows a particularly high concentration, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 2.6% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the Census working population count compared to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2%, labour force by 3.6%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5%, labour force decline by 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Junction Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Junction Hill has a median taxpayer income of $48,421 and an average income of $57,103 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is below the national average, contrasting with Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $52,711 (median) and $62,162 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Junction Hill fall between the 22nd and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 30.0% of the population (486 individuals) have incomes within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 range dominates with 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with 86.9% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 27th percentile nationally.

Junction Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Junction Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 94.5% houses and 5.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Hill was recorded at 50.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented dwellings at 19.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,528, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. The median weekly rent figure in Junction Hill was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Junction Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Junction Hill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Junction Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 30.7%. A total of 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 10.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Junction Hill shows that there are currently twelve active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with ten individual routes providing service collectively resulting in 118 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located at an average distance of 202 meters from their nearest transport stop.

The service frequency averages sixteen trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Hill faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Approximately half of its population (~804 people) has private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 46.6% and the national average of 55.7%. The most common conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and asthma (9.5%), with 59.1% reporting no medical ailments, similar to Rest of NSW's 58.7%.

As of 2021, 27.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (446 people). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Junction Hill are notably better than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Junction Hill placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Hill had a cultural diversity score below average, with 94.9% of its population born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion was Christianity, comprising 64.4% of Junction Hill's population, compared to 55.6% across the rest of NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (35.8%), English (35.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups had different representations: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 3.9%, compared to 5.5% regionally; German was also slightly overrepresented at 3.6%, versus 3.3%; New Zealanders were represented at 0.5%, compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Junction Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Junction Hill has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The age group of 65-74 years shows strong representation at 15.8% compared to Rest of NSW, whereas the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 8.8%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.3% to 9.9% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.9% to 15.8%. By 2041, Junction Hill is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 17%, reaching 225 from 191, while the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.