Junction Hill

Population growth drivers in Junction Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Junction Hill is estimated at around 1,627, reflecting an increase of 80 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 5.2% rise from the previous population count of 1,547. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 1,607 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 226 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Junction Hill has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outperforming the SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national regional areas, with the suburb expected to gain 153 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an 8.2% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Junction Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis shows Junction Hill has had about 8 dwelling approvals per year. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 41 homes were approved, with another 3 in FY-26 so far. Each new dwelling adds approximately 0.7 residents annually on average over the past five financial years.

This suggests construction pace matches or exceeds demand, providing more housing options and potentially boosting population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $342,000. Commercial approvals this year total $3.7 million, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Junction Hill has similar development levels per capita, promoting market stability aligned with regional trends.

New developments consist of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from current patterns (94.0% houses), likely due to decreasing developable land availability and evolving housing preferences. The area has about 226 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density. Future projections estimate Junction Hill will add 133 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, benefiting buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth.

Junction Hill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly influence a region's performance like alterations to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are anticipated to impact this area. Notable projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements, and Queensland New South Wales Interconnector. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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The employment landscape in Junction Hill shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Junction Hill has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of this date, 601 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Junction Hill lagged significantly at 48.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Census responses indicated that only 8.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among Junction Hill residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area has a particularly notable concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.6% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population compared to resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.5% and labour force increased by 3.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.0 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Junction Hill. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Junction Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though it is noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Junction Hill's income level is below the national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. The suburb's median income among taxpayers was $48,421 and average income stood at $57,103. This compares to Regional NSW figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $52,711 (median) and $62,162 (average) as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census figures for 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Junction Hill all fall between the 22nd and 23rd percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 30.0% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (488 residents). Unlike metropolitan trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing costs are modest with 86.9% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 27th percentile nationally.

Junction Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Junction Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 94.5% houses and 5.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Hill was at 50.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.1%) or rented (19.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,528, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was recorded at $350, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Junction Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Junction Hill has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.1% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Junction Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 30.7%. A total of 24.4% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 10.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Junction Hill indicates that there are currently twelve active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with ten individual routes providing service collectively resulting in 118 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located an average of 202 meters from their nearest stop. As Junction Hill is primarily residential, most commuting patterns show residents traveling outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation, with a rate of 99%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census data (which may reflect COVID-19 conditions), only 8.9% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages sixteen trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Hill faces notable health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are significant, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~806 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and asthma (9.5%). Conversely, 59.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Junction Hill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.2% (442 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they align broadly with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Junction Hill placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 94.9% of its population born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Junction Hill is Christianity, comprising 64.4% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups represented are Australian (35.8%), English (35.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups have different representations: Australian Aboriginal is higher at 3.9% in Junction Hill versus 4.6% regionally, German at 3.6% compared to 3.1%, and New Zealand at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Junction Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Junction Hill has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The age group of 65-74 shows strong representation at 15.6% compared to Regional NSW, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.0%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.3% to 10.4% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.9% to 15.6%. By the year 2041, Junction Hill is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 25 to 34 group, which is projected to grow by 23%, reaching 232 from 188 people. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.