Junction Hill

Population growth drivers in Junction Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Junction Hill is estimated at around 1,620 people. This reflects an increase of 73 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,547 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,617 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 46 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 225 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Junction Hill's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA4 region at 4.6%, marking it as a growth leader in the area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 141 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.5% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Junction Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Junction Hill shows approximately 8 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 41 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. This results in about 2.6 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $342,000. Commercial approvals this financial year total $3.7 million, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Junction Hill has similar development levels per person, indicating market stability aligned with regional patterns. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 94.0% houses), likely due to decreasing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences.

The location has approximately 228 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low density market. Future projections estimate Junction Hill will add 138 residents by 2041 based on current AreaSearch quarterly estimates. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Junction Hill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements, and Queensland New South Wales Interconnector. The following list specifies those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Junction Hill shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Junction Hill has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.1% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2% over the past year according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of this date, 625 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.2% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Junction Hill lagged behind Regional NSW at 49.3%, compared to 60.5%. Census responses showed that only 8.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. Public administration & safety had particularly high concentration with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 2.6% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2% and labour force increased by 4.2%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. In comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decline of 1.2%, labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Junction Hill's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Junction Hill had an income level below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Junction Hill was $48,421 and the average income stood at $57,103, compared to figures for Regional NSW of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $53,418 (median) and $62,996 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Junction Hill all fell between the 22nd and 23rd percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprised 30.0% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (486 residents), unlike metropolitan trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. While housing costs were modest with 86.9% of income retained, total disposable income ranked at just the 27th percentile nationally.

Junction Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Junction Hill's dwelling structures as 94.5% houses and 5.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Hill was at 50.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 19.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,528, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Junction Hill was $350, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Junction Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,528 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Junction Hill has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 76.1% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Junction Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.7%).

A substantial 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 12 active stops operating within Junction Hill. These stops serve a mix of buses on 10 routes, offering 118 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 99%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 8.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 16 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Hill faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~802 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and asthma (9.5%), while 59.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 27.7% of residents aged 65 and over (448 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Junction Hill placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Hill, surveyed in 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 94.9% born there. Citizenship was high at 94.6%, and English speakers at home were 97.2%. Christianity was the primary religion at 64.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 55.9%.

Ancestry showed Australians at 35.8% (regional average: 30.0%), English at 35.2%, and Irish at 8.6%. Notably, Australian Aboriginals were overrepresented at 3.9% (regional: 4.6%), Germans at 3.6% (regional: 3.1%), and New Zealanders at 0.5% (regional: 0.4%).

Junction Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Junction Hill has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and significantly greater than the national norm of 38. The age group of 65-74 shows strong representation at 15.9%, compared to Regional NSW, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.2%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 8.3% to 10.3% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 16.9% to 15.9%. By 2041, Junction Hill is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 20%, reaching 226 people from 187. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts are anticipated to see population declines.