Junction Hill

Population growth drivers in Junction Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Junction Hill's population is estimated at around 1,619. This reflects an increase of 72 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,547. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,613 based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 224 persons per square kilometer. Junction Hill's growth rate of 4.7% since census is within 0.4 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 5.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an increase just below the median of national regional areas, with Junction Hill expected to gain 148 persons by 2041, reflecting a total growth rate of 6.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Junction Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Junction Hill has averaged approximately 7 new dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 35 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations.

The average value of new dwellings being developed is $342,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In terms of commercial development activity, there have been $23.8 million in approvals this financial year. Comparatively, Junction Hill has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person compared to Rest of NSW, and it ranks among the 61st percentile nationally based on areas assessed. The composition of new development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 94.0% houses.

This change may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 243 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Junction Hill is projected to add 107 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Junction Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes were identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area. Key projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements, and Queensland New South Wales Interconnector.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Junction Hill faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Junction Hill has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.2% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the previous year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025589 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Junction Hill lagged at 49.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among Junction Hill residents are health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training.

Notably, the area has a high concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.6% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.7%, while the labour force grew by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.6 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. For future insights into potential job demand within Junction Hill, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 can be considered. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Junction Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Junction Hill's median income among taxpayers was $48,421 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $57,103 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.61% increase from financial year 2022 suggest median income will be approximately $54,527 and average income will be around $64,304. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Junction Hill fall between the 22nd and 23rd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The largest segment of earners comprises 30.0% with weekly incomes of $800 - 1,499 (485 residents). This is unlike metropolitan regions where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing costs are modest in Junction Hill, with 86.9% of income retained after expenses, but total disposable income ranks at only the 27th percentile nationally.

Junction Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Junction Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 94.5% houses and 5.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Hill was higher than Non-Metro NSW at 50.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.1%) or rented (19.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Junction Hill was $1,528, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. Median weekly rent in Junction Hill was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Junction Hill's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Junction Hill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 76.1% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Junction Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area has university qualification rates of 17.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.7%).

A substantial 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 10.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% in tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Junction Hill has 11 active public transport stops, all bus services. There are 10 different routes operating, together offering 118 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average 202 meters from the nearest stop.

Services run an average of 16 times daily across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Hill faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately half of its total population (~802 people) has private health cover, compared to 46.3% in the Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and asthma (9.5%), with 59.1% reporting no medical ailments, similar to the 58.7% across the Rest of NSW.

As of 20xx (exact year not specified), 27.5% of residents were aged 65 or over (445 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Junction Hill are comparable to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Junction Hill placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Hill, surveyed in 2016, had low cultural diversity with 94.9% born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 64.4%, compared to the regional average of 55.6%. Top ancestral groups were Australian (35.8%), English (35.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 3.9% versus 5.5% regionally, along with German at 3.6% versus 3.3%, and New Zealand at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Junction Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Junction Hill has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group shows strong representation at 15.8% compared to Rest of NSW, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 8.8%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.3% to 9.9% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.9% to 15.8%. By 2041, Junction Hill is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 group growing by 18 people to reach 225 from 191. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.