Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Grafton is estimated at around 10,945. This reflects an increase of 382 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,563. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 10,847 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 91 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 863 persons per square kilometer. Grafton's growth rate of 3.6% since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the Rest of NSW, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to increase by 1,266 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Grafton experienced approximately 36 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 183 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. Each new home attracted around 1.2 new residents on average between FY21 and FY25. The average construction value per dwelling was $342,000.

This financial year has seen $62.3 million in commercial development approvals. Grafton shows about 61% of the construction activity per capita compared to Rest of NSW, placing it at the 49th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% attached dwellings. The population is expected to grow by 1,168 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with projections.

Looking ahead, Grafton is expected to grow by 1,168 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects that may impact this region. Key projects are: Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, Grafton Waterfront Precinct, and Alice Street Levee Rehabilitation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Grafton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Grafton's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.3%. As of December 2025, 4,393 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate stood at 2.0% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation was lower at 52.3%.

Census data indicated that only 8.0% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety, with the latter showing strong specialization at 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 2.0%. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 4.3% while labour force grew by 2.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points.

In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2% and labour force decline by 0.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Grafton, median income is $46,464 and average income is $54,795. This is below the national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Regional NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest median income in Grafton would be approximately $50,581 and average income $59,650 by September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Grafton fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant, with 28.0% of residents (3,064 people). This aligns with broader regional trends where 29.9% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Grafton, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Grafton, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 76.3% houses and 23.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton stood at 36.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (35.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Grafton was $1,348, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Grafton was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 20.4% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.8% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 95 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that collectively facilitate 962 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically living within a 208-meter radius of the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward using private vehicles, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 91%. Six percent of residents walk to their destinations. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Grafton, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 137 trips per day, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,324 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.6%) and mental health issues (10.5%). 58.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. 24.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,670 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally in line with the overall population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton's population, as of 2016 Census data, is predominantly culturally homogeneous: 92.5% are Australian citizens, 93.3% were born in Australia, and 96.2% speak English at home exclusively. Christianity is the primary religion, practiced by 56.8%, slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. Ancestry-wise, Australians comprise 34.4%, followed by those of English descent (30.8%) and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation in Grafton is higher at 6.6% compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Similarly, Germans make up 3.5% versus 3.1% regionally, while Scottish ancestry stands at 7.6%, slightly lower than Regional NSW's 8.0%.

Grafton hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Grafton has a median age of 43, matching Regional NSW's figure and surpassing Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 85 or above comprise 4.5%, while the 65-74 group constitutes 10.9%. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age bracket has risen from 10.6% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 12.0% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Grafton's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 19%, reaching 1,529 people from its current figure of 1,280. Conversely, population declines are projected for both the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups.