Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Grafton is around 10,902, reflecting a 3.2% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,563 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's validated new addresses and ABS ERP data released in June 2024, which estimated the resident population at 10,815. The population density is approximately 860 persons per square kilometer. Grafton's population growth since the census is within 1.9 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 5.1%. Interstate migration contributed about 67% to this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by the former, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These projections indicate that Grafton is expected to increase its population by 1,227 persons to reach approximately 12,139 by 2041, reflecting a total gain of about 10.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Grafton had around 39 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 196 homes. In FY26, so far, there have been 5 approvals. The average annual increase in residents is about 1.1 per new home between FY21 and FY25.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $342,000, below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In commercial development, Grafton has recorded $46.2 million in approvals this financial year, indicating high local activity.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Grafton records about 65% of building activity per person and ranks at the 48th percentile nationally, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. New development consists of 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% attached dwellings, with a mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. The area has an estimated 348 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Looking ahead, Grafton is expected to grow by 1,137 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Grafton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified five key projects impacting the area: Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, Alice Street Levee Rehabilitation, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Grafton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services. The unemployment rate was 7.8% as of June 2024, showing a 0.5% employment growth over the previous year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 4,258 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, exceeding Rest of NSW's rate by 0.4 percentage points. Workforce participation in Grafton is lower at 51.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety, with the latter having employment levels 1.6 times higher than the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 2.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.5%, while labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to a 2.8 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1% and a labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Grafton's median income among taxpayers is $46,464, with an average of $54,795. This is below the national average and compares to Rest of NSW's median of $49,459 and average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $52,323 (median) and $61,705 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.0% of residents (3,052 people), reflecting patterns seen the region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Grafton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.3% houses and 23.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton was at 36.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (35.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Grafton was $1,348, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. The median weekly rent figure in Grafton was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 20.4% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.9%, with 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Six schools operate in Grafton, educating approximately 2,022 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 960) with balanced educational opportunities. There are four primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups, plus a specialist school for specific learning needs. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 18.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.0, indicating Grafton serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that collectively facilitate 942 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 134 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 49%, covering around 5,303 people, compared to 46.3% across the Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.6%) and mental health issues (10.5%).

About 58.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 58.7% in the Rest of NSW. Grafton has 24.4% of its population aged 65 and over (2,660 people), lower than the 27.5% in the Rest of NSW. The health outcomes among seniors are generally aligned with those of the broader population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 92.5% being citizens, 93.3% born in Australia, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Grafton, comprising 56.8%, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.4%), English (30.8%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 6.6% in Grafton compared to 5.5% regionally, while German was at 3.5% versus 3.3%, and Scottish was lower at 7.6% compared to 8.9%.

Grafton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Grafton's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton has a higher percentage of residents aged 85 and over (4.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 increased from 10.6% to 11.9%, while the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 decreased from 12.0% to 10.9%. By 2041, Grafton's age composition is projected to change significantly. Notably, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 22%, reaching 1,516 people from 1,242. Conversely, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups are projected to experience population declines.