Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Grafton statistical area is around 10,945. This represents an increase of 382 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,563. The current resident population estimate of 10,847 by AreaSearch, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and validation of additional 90 new addresses since the Census date, suggests this increase is accurate. This results in a density ratio of 863 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Grafton statistical area's growth rate of 3.6% since the census places it within 2.1 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where ABS data is not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations to all areas, the Grafton statistical area is expected to increase by just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas by 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to gain a total population of 1,239 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall growth rate of 10.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Grafton shows around 38 dwellings receiving development approval per year from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 190 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 1.1 new residents arriving per new home annually over the past five financial years. The average construction value for new dwellings is $342,000.

In commercial development, $62.3 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to Rest of NSW and nationally, Grafton shows around 64% of construction activity per person, placing it among the 52nd percentile of areas assessed. New development consists of 63.0% detached dwellings and 37.0% attached dwellings. With around 308 people per dwelling approval, Grafton is considered a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Grafton is expected to grow by 1,106 residents through to 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Grafton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely affecting the region. Key initiatives include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, Grafton Waterfront Precinct, and Alice Street Levee Rehabilitation. Details on these projects are provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Grafton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 7.0%, having grown by 1.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, there are 4,305 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 51.3%, lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety, with the latter being particularly notable at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 2.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, while the labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Grafton suburb's median income among taxpayers is $46,464, with an average of $54,795. This is below the national average. Rest of NSW's median income is $52,390 and average is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Grafton would be approximately $50,581 (median) and $59,650 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.0% of residents (3,064 people) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grafton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.3% houses and 23.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 86.5% houses and 13.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton was at 36.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (35.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,348, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,387. The median weekly rent in Grafton was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $310. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 20.4% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton's public transport analysis indicates that there are currently 95 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops primarily serve buses, with a total of 66 individual routes in operation. Together, these routes facilitate 962 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as good, with residents typically residing approximately 208 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency stands at 137 trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 49% (around 5,324 people), compared to 46.6% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (11.6%) and mental health issues (10.5%).

About 58.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 58.7% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 24.4% (around 2,670 people), lower than the 27.5% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly comparable to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 92.5% of its population being citizens, 93.3% born in Australia, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Grafton is Christianity, comprising 56.8% of the population, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are Australian (34.4%), English (30.8%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups have different representations: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 6.6% in Grafton compared to 5.5% regionally, German at 3.5% versus 3.3%, and Scottish at 7.6% versus 8.9%.

Grafton hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Grafton's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Grafton has a higher proportion of residents aged 85 and over (4.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 10.6% to 11.9%, while the population aged 65-74 has decreased from 12.0% to 10.9%. By 2041, Grafton's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 22%, adding 268 people and reaching a total of 1,516 from the current 1,247. Conversely, the populations aged 55-64 and 65-74 are expected to decrease.