Grafton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Grafton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Grafton is around 11,035 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 472 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,563. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 10,991 following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 871 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 4.5% since the census is within 0.1 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,125 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.8% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Grafton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Grafton had around 36 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25. This totals an estimated 183 homes. So far in FY26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents arrived annually for each new home approved between FY21 and FY25.

The supply of dwellings has met or exceeded demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction cost value of new dwellings was $342,000. This financial year, Grafton recorded $62.3 million in commercial development approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Comparatively, Grafton shows approximately 62% of the construction activity per person compared to the rest of NSW.

Nationally, it ranks among the 49th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This activity reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. Grafton has around 338 people per approval, indicating a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Grafton is expected to grow by 1,081 residents through to 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Grafton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified five projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Grafton Base Hospital Redevelopment, Grafton Regional Aquatic Centre, Alice Street Levee Rehabilitation, and Grafton Waterfront Precinct. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Grafton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Grafton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 5.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.2% over the previous year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of that date, 4,401 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 1.9% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Grafton was lower at 51.5%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Only 8.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Grafton had a strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 2.0% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally might be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population numbers. In the 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, while labour force grew by 2.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Regional NSW experienced a decline in employment of 1.2% and labour force of 0.8%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grafton's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Grafton is below the national average. The median income is $46,464 and the average income is $54,795. This differs from Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $51,259 and the average income would be around $60,450 as of March 2026. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Grafton fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 28.0% of residents (3,089 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader regional trends where 29.9% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Grafton, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Grafton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Grafton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.3% houses and 23.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grafton was at 36.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (35.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Grafton was $1,348, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Grafton was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grafton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.4% of all households, including 20.4% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grafton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.9%, with 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grafton has 95 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that together facilitate 962 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically living just 208 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 91%, while 6% walk to their destinations. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 137 trips per day, resulting in approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grafton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grafton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 49% of the total population (around 5,368 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.6% and 10.5% of residents respectively, while 58.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW.

Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has 24.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,736 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grafton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grafton, as of 2016 Census data, had a population with 92.5% being Australian citizens, 93.3% born in Australia, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.8% of Grafton's population compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.4%), English (30.8%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 6.6% in Grafton versus the regional average of 4.6%. German ancestry was also slightly higher at 3.5% compared to 3.1%, while Scottish ancestry was lower at 7.6% versus 8.0%.

Grafton hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Grafton's median age is exactly 43 years, matching Regional NSW's figure and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age distribution indicates a notable presence of individuals aged 85 and above (4.7%), while those aged 65-74 comprise a smaller proportion (11.1%) compared to Regional NSW. Between the 2021 Census and present, the percentage of Grafton's population in the 35-44 age bracket has increased from 10.6% to 12.1%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 11.6%. By 2041, demographic projections predict significant changes in Grafton's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 18%, adding 230 people and reaching a total of 1,500 from its current count of 1,269. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 55-64 and 65-74 years.