Warwick

An assessment of population growth drivers in Warwick reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Warwick's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,385. This figure represents an increase of 860 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,525. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates; Warwick had an estimated resident population of 16,156 in June 2024 and gained 298 new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 103 persons per square kilometer. Warwick's 5.5% growth since the census is close to the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data for each age cohort. Future demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally by 2041. The latest annual ERP population numbers indicate an expected expansion of 1,266 persons to that year, reflecting a total increase of 6.3% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Warwick when compared nationally

Warwick has seen approximately 78 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 391 homes were approved, with an additional 58 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, about 1.4 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these years, indicating balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and accessible housing choices with new dwellings averaging $276,000 in construction cost value.

This year has seen $31.2 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Warwick has slightly more development, 14.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, supporting good buyer choice while maintaining existing property values. The new development consists mainly of detached dwellings (74.0%) and attached dwellings (26.0%), preserving the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

Warwick has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warwick is expected to grow by 1,037 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warwick has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Aleva Estate Residential Development, The Crossroads Development, The Rose Estate Residential Subdivision, and Warwick Industrial Estate Water Recycling Pipeline. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Warwick shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Warwick has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Manufacturing is particularly notable with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Construction has limited presence at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. As of September 2025, there are 7,573 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is 0.1% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Warwick lags at 53.4%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%.

In the past year, employment grew by 4.2%, while the labour force increased by 6.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 2.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.7% and unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Warwick SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $43,987 and an average income of $50,960 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Qld's median income being $50,780 and average income $64,844. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $50,141 and average income $58,089, based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Warwick fall between the 8th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 28.3% of locals (4,636 people) earn between $800 - 1,499, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is predominant at 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warwick, with only 84.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Warwick is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 92.3% houses and 7.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warwick stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.8% and rented ones at 33.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,222, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Warwick was $265, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $255. Nationally, Warwick's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warwick features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 22.1% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 31.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

Warwick faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (30.9%).

Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 10.7% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 76 active public transport stops in Warwick. These stops offer bus services. There are five distinct routes operating, together offering 140 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 324 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Warwick is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warwick faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 7,602 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (10.4%) and mental health problems (9.2%). About 61.2% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Qld's 62.0%. Around 25.8%, or 4,220 people, are aged 65 and over, less than Rest of Qld's 27.0%. Health outcomes among seniors show some difficulties but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Warwick is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warwick's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.8% of its population being citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Warwick is Christianity, accounting for 63.3% of the population, compared to 63.9% across the Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups in Warwick are Australian (30.8%), English (30.6%), and Irish (10.1%).

Notably, German ethnicity is overrepresented at 5.3%, compared to 5.6% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal is at 5.1% versus the regional average of 3.6%. Scottish ancestry also stands out at 8.7%, slightly higher than the regional figure of 8.5%.

Warwick hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warwick's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 9.7% of the population, while the 35-44 age group comprises 9.8%. Since 2021, the proportion of people aged 15-24 has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 9.9% and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 13.2% to 12.2%. By 2041, Warwick's population is forecasted to undergo significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 26%, adding 409 residents to reach a total of 2,005. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 55% of the population growth, indicating a trend towards an aging population. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 45-54 and 5-14 years old.