Southern Downs - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Southern Downs - East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Southern Downs - East's population is approximately 4,705 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 345 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,360 people. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,595 in June 2024 and an additional 208 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.9 persons per square kilometer. Southern Downs - East's population grew by 7.9% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, exceeding the SA4 region's growth rate of 5.5%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 89.6% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using 2022 data as the base year. Future population dynamics anticipate lower quartile growth for national regional areas. Based on the latest population numbers, Southern Downs - East is expected to increase by 81 persons to reach a total of 4,786 by 2041, recording an overall decrease of 0.6% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Southern Downs - East when compared nationally

Southern Downs - East has granted around 28 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 143 homes. In FY-26 so far, 12 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating robust demand that supports property values. The average construction cost of new homes is $280,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $2.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting limited commercial development focus compared to other Queensland regions. Southern Downs - East records elevated construction activity, with 49.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

New development consists of 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With around 145 people per approval, Southern Downs - East reflects a developing area with an expected stable or declining population, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Southern Downs - East has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 16thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Warwick Solar Farm, Warwick Industrial Estate Water Recycling Pipeline, Aleva Estate Residential Development, and Warwick Saleyards Redevelopment Project. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Southern Downs - East demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Southern Downs - East has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than the national average of 5.4% as of June 2025.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 5.2%. As of June 2025, 2,378 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.7% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Southern Downs - East is somewhat below standard at 56.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries employing residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share four times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 12.5% compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 5.8%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.8%, labour force growth of 2.0%, with unemployment rising 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Southern Downs - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.4% over five years and 11.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2022 shows that income in Southern Downs - East is below the national average. The median income is $42,759 and the average income stands at $49,991. In contrast, Rest of Qld's figures show a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% from July 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $48,741 for median income and $56,985 for average income as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Southern Downs - East all fall between the 12th and 17th percentiles nationally. The data shows that the predominant cohort spans 28.8% of locals (1,355 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing costs are modest, with 88.4% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 22nd percentile nationally.

Southern Downs - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Southern Downs - East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.0% houses and 1.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 92.3% houses and 7.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Southern Downs - East was at 51.0%, with the rest either mortgaged (33.8%) or rented (15.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,386, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,300. The median weekly rent was recorded at $240, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $255. Nationally, Southern Downs - East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Southern Downs - East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.4% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.6%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Southern Downs - East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 30.3%. Educational participation is high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary, 9.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education. The five schools in Southern Downs - East have a combined enrollment of 217 students. They offer balanced educational opportunities, typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 955), with four primary and one K-12 school. However, local school capacity is limited at 4.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.1, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Southern Downs - East shows that there are five active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with one individual route providing service to all stops collectively offering ten weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically located 8189 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, each stop receives approximately two weekly trips, equating to about one trip per day across all routes.

Health performance in Southern Downs - East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Southern Downs - East faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,169 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.6 and 7.7% of residents respectively. A total of 64.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.0% across Rest of Qld. The area has 28.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,339 people), which is higher than the 27.0% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Southern Downs - East placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Southern Downs-East had a low cultural diversity, with 90.7% citizens, 91.6% born in Australia, and 97.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, at 68.1%, compared to 63.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.6%), English (31.4%), and Irish (11.6%).

Notably, Scottish representation was higher at 9.6% vs regional 8.5%, German at 5.5% vs 5.6%, and Australian Aboriginal lower at 2.4% vs regional 3.6%.

Southern Downs - East ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Southern Downs - East has a median age of 51, which is higher than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age cohort makes up 17.4% of the local population, notably higher than the Rest of Qld average but well above the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.2% to 8.5%, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 17.6% to 18.8%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 11.4% to 9.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.3% to 13.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Southern Downs - East's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase by 85 people (69%), from 122 to 208. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 67% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 35 to 44 age cohorts.