Warwick (Qld)

Warwick is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Warwick's population is estimated at around 12,945 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 651 people (5.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,294 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 12,766, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 167 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 440 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Warwick has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 0.5% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb of Warwick (Qld) expected to increase by 1,073 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 7.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Warwick when compared nationally

Warwick has seen approximately 57 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 286 homes. As of FY-26, 30 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.7 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes was $374,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $22.0 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Warwick has similar development levels per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns, although building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity comprises 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

Warwick shows characteristics of a low density area with around 281 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warwick is expected to grow by 942 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warwick has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects potentially impacting the region. Notable developments are Aleva Estate Residential Development, The Rose Estate Residential Subdivision, The Crossroads Development, and Warwick Industrial Estate Water Recycling Pipeline. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Warwick has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Warwick has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented.

The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of an unspecified past year. Employment grew by 3.8% in the year ending June 2025. As of June 2025, 5,702 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, which is 0.4% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was at 51.7%, significantly lower than Rest of Qld's 59.1%.

Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing has a particularly strong presence with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Construction, however, has limited presence at 7.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, while labour force grew by 5.5%, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for Sep-22 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Warwick's median taxpayer income in financial year 2022 was $41,994, with an average of $48,651 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Qld had a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844 in the same period. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $47,869 and average income around $55,457, based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99%. Census data indicates that Warwick's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 4th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of Warwick's population (3,935 individuals) have incomes within the $400 - $799 range, unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warwick, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Warwick is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.1% houses and 15.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 92.3% houses and 7.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warwick was at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.3% and rented ones at 36.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,170, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Warwick was $260, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $255. Nationally, Warwick's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,170 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warwick features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Warwick faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 13.1%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 8.3% and certificates at 30.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education. The area has 13 schools serving 3,244 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 952) offering balanced educational opportunities. There are 5 primary, 3 secondary, and 5 K-12 schools in the area. It functions as an education hub with 25.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.1, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warwick has 68 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together offer 140 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average living 289 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, each route provides 20 trips per day, equating to approximately two weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warwick is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warwick's health data indicates significant obstacles, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Approximately 46% (~6,016 individuals) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (affecting 10.7%) and mental health concerns (9.7%). Conversely, 59.4% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Qld's 62.0%. Warwick has a senior population of 26.9% (~3,482 individuals), with seniors showing mixed health outcomes compared to the general population.

Warwick is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warwick, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below the average. Of its population, 90.1% were Australian citizens, 90.4% were born in Australia, and 95.8% spoke only English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 62.2% of Warwick's population adhering to it, compared to 63.9% across the rest of Queensland.

The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth were English (30.7%), Australian (30.5%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, German ancestry was slightly overrepresented in Warwick at 5.2%, compared to 5.6% regionally. Similarly, Australian Aboriginal ancestry was higher at 5.3% versus the regional average of 3.6%. Scottish ancestry also showed a slight increase in Warwick, with 8.7% compared to 8.5% regionally.

Warwick hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warwick has a median age of 45, which is higher than Rest of Qld's figure of 41 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 10.2% of the population, while those aged 35-44 comprise 9.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.4% to 12.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.0% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warwick's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 26%, reaching 1,667 people from the current 1,320. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 57% of total population growth. Conversely, the 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.