Madora Bay

Madora Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of Madora Bay is estimated at around 6,433, reflecting an increase of 2,603 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for the suburb was 5,643 in June 2024, with an additional 1,033 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to the current population figure. This results in a density ratio of 1,734 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 68.0% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a significant growth leader in the region. Interstate migration drove this growth primarily, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Madora Bay are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch uses growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb, with an expected expansion of 926 persons to reach a total population of 7,359 by 2041. This reflects a reduction of 14.9% in total over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Madora Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Madora Bay averaged approximately 201 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 1,008 homes were approved, with an additional 128 approved in FY-26 so far. Each new home attracted an average of 0.8 new residents annually over these years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and facilitating population growth. The average expected construction cost value of new properties was $401,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year has seen $35.2 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Perth, Madora Bay had 311.0% more new home approvals per person as of FY-26, offering buyers ample choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. Recent building activity comprises entirely detached houses, maintaining Madora Bay's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for space-seeking buyers.

With around 20 people per dwelling approval, Madora Bay exhibits characteristics of a growth area. However, given the expected stable or declining population, housing pressure should remain relatively low, potentially presenting opportunities for buyers in the future.

Madora Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are Lakelands Estate, Meadow Springs Residential Development, and Black Swan Lake Estate (Ocean Hill, Lakelands). The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Madora Bay performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Madora Bay has a skilled labor force with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 0.9% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 7.4% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, there were 2,496 residents employed in Madora Bay, with an unemployment rate of 3.0%, which is below Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. The workforce participation rate was 69.8%, compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and mining.

Mining has a particularly notable concentration in the area, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 4.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. According to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data for the wider area during the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 7.4% and labor force increased by 7.1%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth saw employment rise by 3.7%, the labor force grow by 3.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer further insight into potential future demand within Madora Bay. These projections suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Madora Bay's employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years. However, it is important to note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Madora Bay's median income among taxpayers is $64,563. The average income in the area is $86,993. Both figures are among the highest in Australia. In comparison, Greater Perth's median income is $58,380 with an average of $78,020. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Madora Bay would be approximately $73,731 (median) and $99,346 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Madora Bay rank highly nationally, between the 73rd and 83rd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The earnings profile shows that 36.1% of locals (2,322 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.0%. In Madora Bay, 33.3% of households achieve high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, indicating strong consumer spending power. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income in the area. With strong earnings, residents rank within the 83rd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Madora Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Madora Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Perth metro's 85.0% houses and 15.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Madora Bay stood at 24.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.3% and rented ones at 15.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,004, higher than Perth metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Madora Bay was $370, compared to Perth metro's $300. Nationally, Madora Bay's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $375.

Madora Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.6% of all households, including 41.9% couples with children, 31.1% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 14.5% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Madora Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate in 2016 was 20.2%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees were most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials were held by 44.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 32.0%. Educational participation was high, with 31.7% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2016.

This included 11.9% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education. Madora Bay Primary School and St Marcellin Catholic College served a total of 218 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1000) indicating balanced educational opportunities. The area had one primary and one K-12 school, but limited local capacity at 3.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.2, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Madora Bay has 36 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 828 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is considered good, with residents on average being located 205 meters from their nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 118 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Madora Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Madora Bay shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 62%, or 3,971 people, compared to Greater Perth's 54.9%. Nationally, the average stands at 55.3%.

Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Madora Bay, affecting 6.9% and 6.6% of residents respectively. A total of 75.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Perth's 63.6%. The area has 12.8%, or 823 people, aged 65 and over, which is lower than Greater Perth's 27.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Madora Bay are particularly strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Madora Bay was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Madora Bay's population showed higher linguistic diversity, with 6.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Overseas-born residents comprised 30.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Madora Bay at 47.5%, slightly higher than Greater Perth's 47.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (36.5%), Australian (26.4%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, South African ancestry was overrepresented at 1.2% compared to the regional average of 0.8%. Welsh ancestry remained steady at 0.8%, while Maori ancestry was slightly higher at 1.3% compared to 1.2% regionally.

Madora Bay's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Madora Bay's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Perth's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, Madora Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.7%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15-24 grew from 13.3% to 14.5%, while the 75-84 age group increased from 2.7% to 3.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 15.5% to 14.2%, and the 25-34 age group decreased from 11.8% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Madora Bay's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 26%, adding 64 residents to reach 309. Residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, indicating a trend of demographic aging. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups are expected to experience population declines.