Little Bay

Little Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Little Bay is around 5,031, reflecting a 4.4% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,817. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and their estimate of the resident population at 4,999 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024. This results in a density ratio of 2,045 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Little Bay has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilised. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median is expected for Little Bay by 2041, with an expected gain of 564 persons and a total increase of 9.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Little Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Little Bay has averaged around 43 residential properties approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 219 homes were approved, with another 6 granted in FY-26 to date. Despite recent population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $722,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $1.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Little Bay records 233.0% more development activity per person. Building activity comprises 16.0% detached dwellings and 84.0% medium and high-density housing, creating affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 102 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Future projections estimate Little Bay will add 455 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand, favourable conditions for buyers potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Little Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Jennifer St, Little Bay; 27 Jennifer Street, Little Bay; Little Bay Beach Emergency Access Path; and Meriton Little Bay Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Little Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Little Bay's workforce is highly educated with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 7.0% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment grew by 3.2% during this period. As of June 2025, 2,609 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.0%, which is 2.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Little Bay matches Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction.

The area shows significant specialization in public administration & safety with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Retail trade has limited presence at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending unspecified, employment increased by 3.2%, labour force grew by 2.1%, and unemployment fell by 0.9 percentage points. In Greater Sydney during this same period, employment grew by 2.6%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Little Bay. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Little Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Little Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $72,390 and an average of $101,416. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Little Bay would be approximately $81,518 (median) and $114,205 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Little Bay rank highly nationally, between the 86th and 87th percentiles. Income brackets indicate 28.3% of the population (1,423 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.9% occupy this range. The suburb demonstrates affluence with 38.4% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally, with the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 9th decile.

Little Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Little Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 29.0% houses and 71.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 26.9% houses and 73.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Little Bay was at 29.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest being mortgaged (29.2%) or rented (41.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, below Sydney metro's average of $3,033. The median weekly rent in Little Bay was $590, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Little Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Little Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.5 percent of all households, including 31.3 percent couples with children, 30.4 percent couples without children, and 6.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5 percent, with lone person households at 28.1 percent and group households comprising 2.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Little Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Little Bay's educational attainment is notably high, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.2% and certificates for 18.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.7% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Little Bay indicates that there are currently 24 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 17 individual routes providing service to the community. The combined weekly passenger trips across all routes amount to 2,609.

The accessibility of public transport in Little Bay is rated as excellent, with residents on average located approximately 180 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 372 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly 108 weekly trips per individual stop.

Little Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Little Bay residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with common conditions seen across both young and old age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 67% of the total population (3,365 people), compared to 70.6% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 6.7% and 5.4% of residents respectively.

About 73.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.0% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 22.4% (1,126 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Sydney. Overall, health profiles are broadly in line with general population trends.

Little Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Little Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 27.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 39.4% born overseas. The predominant religion in Little Bay is Christianity, accounting for 56.6% of the population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, comprising 2.7% of the population compared to 4.4% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (21.6%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (12.2%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: French is overrepresented at 2.0% compared to 1.5% regionally, Russian remains similar at 1.1%, and Polish is slightly higher at 1.3%.

Little Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Little Bay is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.2% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 7.7% to 10.1%, whereas the 35 to 44 age group has decreased from 16.3% to 15.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Little Bay. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 104% (from 186 to 380 people), with the combined 65+ age groups accounting for 78% of total population growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.