Little Bay

Population growth drivers in Little Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Little Bay is around 5,077, reflecting a 5.4% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,817. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 5,008 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 15 new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density is 2,063 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Little Bay has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Little Bay is expected to increase by 542 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 9.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Little Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Little Bay recorded approximately 41 residential properties approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 209 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with diverse buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $722,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment. This year, there have been $845,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Little Bay has 222.0% more development activity per person. Building activity consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has about 114 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low density market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Little Bay is projected to add 473 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand favourably for buyers while potentially allowing growth beyond current forecasts.

Little Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to impact the region. Notable projects include Jennifer St, Little Bay, 27 Jennifer Street, Little Bay, Little Bay Beach Emergency Access Path, and Meriton Little Bay Development. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Little Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Little Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 7.4% as of an unspecified past year. Employment growth over the same period was estimated at 3.1%.

As of December 2025, 2,570 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 3.3%, higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Little Bay was 65.8%, below Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A high proportion of residents, 46.4%, worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction.

The area has a particularly strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Retail trade, however, has limited presence at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Indicating limited local employment opportunities, the working population count was lower than the resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, employment increased by 3.1% while labour force grew by 3.2%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2%, labour force expand by 2.3%, and unemployment rise marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Little Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Little Bay's median income among taxpayers is $72,390 and average is $101,416. Nationally, this is exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $78,804 (median) and $110,401 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes rank highly in Little Bay, between the 86th and 87th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate 28.3% of the population earn within $1,500 - $2,999 range (1,436 individuals), similar to metropolitan regions at 30.9%. Affluence is evident with 38.4% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Little Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Little Bay, as assessed at the latest Census, consisted of 29.0% houses and 71.0% other dwellings including semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% were houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Little Bay stood at 29.1%, aligning with the Sydney metro level, while mortgaged dwellings accounted for 29.2% and rented dwellings for 41.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Little Bay was $3,000, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Meanwhile, median weekly rent in Little Bay was recorded at $590, higher than the Sydney metro figure of $470. Nationally, Little Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Little Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.5% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Little Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Little Bay's educational attainment is notably high, with 42.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. This advantage is reflected in various degrees: bachelor degrees at 26.7%, postgraduate qualifications at 13.1%, and graduate diplomas at 2.8%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (18.0%). Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education at 9.7%, secondary education at 6.4%, and tertiary education at 5.2%.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Little Bay has 30 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 17 different routes, offering a total of 2,484 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 180 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 84% of residents, while only 5% opt for buses. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 46.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. All routes combined provide an average of 354 trips per day, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per stop.

Little Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Little Bay. AreaSearch's assessment found mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence to be low, particularly among younger cohorts who had a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 67% of the total population (3,396 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 6.7% and 5.4% of residents respectively. A total of 73.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,162 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Little Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Little Bay has a high cultural diversity, with 27.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 39.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Little Bay, accounting for 56.6% of its population. Judaism is notably overrepresented, comprising 2.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (21.6%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (12.2%). French (2.0%) Russian (1.1%) and Polish (1.3%) are overrepresented in Little Bay compared to regional figures of 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.

Little Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Little Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.4% of the population in Little Bay, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 7.7% to 10.4% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has decreased from 16.3% to 15.0%, and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 12.7% to 11.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Little Bay, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 98% (189 people), reaching a total of 382 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 75% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.