Little Bay

Population growth drivers in Little Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the Little Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 5,073. This figure represents an increase of 256 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,817. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of new addresses, is 5,008 residents. This results in a population density ratio of 2,062 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Little Bay has demonstrated consistent growth patterns with an approximate compound annual growth rate of 0.1%. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch's projections for the area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. Looking ahead, considering projected demographic shifts, the Little Bay (SA2) is expected to experience population growth just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the area's population is projected to increase by approximately 562 persons, reflecting an overall gain of around 8.1% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Little Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Little Bay has annually averaged around 42 residential properties approved. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 210 homes were approved, with another 8 granted in FY-26 to date. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $722,000, targeting the premium market segment. This year, commercial approvals totaled $845,000, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Little Bay records 219.0% more development activity per person. New building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has around 111 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Little Bay to add 411 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Little Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Jennifer St, Little Bay; 27 Jennifer Street, Little Bay; Little Bay Beach Emergency Access Path; and Meriton Little Bay Development. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Little Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Little Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 7.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0% over the past year.

There are 2,553 residents employed currently, while the unemployment rate is 3.3%, higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Little Bay matches Greater Sydney's figure of 60.0%. Key industries employing residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area shows significant specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Retail trade has a limited presence, with only 6.3% employment compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force grew by 2.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Comparatively, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%, but unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from NSW up to 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, as of May-25, project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years for Australia. Applying these projections to Little Bay's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Little Bay's median income among taxpayers is $72,390, with an average of $101,416. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Little Bay would be approximately $78,804 (median) and $110,401 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Little Bay rank highly nationally, between the 86th and 87th percentiles. Income brackets show that 28.3% of the population (1,435 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this range. The suburb demonstrates considerable affluence with 38.4% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Little Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Little Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, comprised 29.0% houses and 71.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 26.9% houses and 73.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Little Bay was at 29.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest mortgaged at 29.2% or rented at 41.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Little Bay was $3,000, below Sydney metro's average of $3,033. Median weekly rent in Little Bay was recorded at $590, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Little Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Little Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Little Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Little Bay's residents aged 15+ have a notable educational advantage with 42.6% holding university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (18.0%). Educational participation is high, with 27.8% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.7% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Little Bay has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 2,484 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 180 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 354 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Little Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Little Bay residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with common conditions seen across both young and old age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 67% of the total population (3,393 people), compared to 70.1% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 6.7% and 5.4% of residents respectively.

73.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.0% in Greater Sydney. The area has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,136 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Sydney. This is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Little Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Little Bay's population shows high cultural diversity, with 27.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 39.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Little Bay, comprising 56.6% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 2.7% of Little Bay's population versus 0.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (21.6%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (12.2%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: French is overrepresented at 2.0%, Russian remains consistent at 1.1%, and Polish is slightly higher at 1.3%.

Little Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Little Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 8.2% of the population in Little Bay, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group constitutes 12.1%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Sydney. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 7.7% to 10.1% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age group has declined from 16.3% to 15.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Little Bay. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 103%, reaching 381 people from 187, leading the demographic shift. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 79% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.