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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
Population growth drivers in Little Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends
The estimated population of Little Bay, as of May 2026, is around 5,086 people. This figure reflects an increase from the 2021 Census count of 4,817 people, marking a rise of 269 individuals (5.6%). AreaSearch validated this estimate following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and consideration of additional 126 new addresses since the Census date. The population density in Little Bay stands at approximately 2,067 persons per square kilometer, surpassing the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2016 to 2026, Little Bay has exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this population growth during recent periods.
For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year for SA2 areas covered by this data. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 are utilized with a 2021 base year. Considering these projections, Little Bay is expected to experience population growth of around 539 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of approximately 10.5% over the 16-year period.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Little Bay when compared nationally
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data for Little Bay shows around 41 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), approximately 209 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 0.3 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.
This suggests new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more buying options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $722,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $845,000, reflecting Little Bay's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Little Bay has 222.0% more development activity per person. New building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.
The area has approximately 116 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Little Bay will add 534 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Little Bay
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Little Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely affecting this region. Key initiatives include Jennifer St, Little Bay; 27 Jennifer Street, Little Bay; Little Bay Beach Emergency Access Path; and Meriton Little Bay Development. The following list details those most relevant:.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Sydney Metro Eastern Suburbs Extension
A long-term strategic extension of the Sydney Metro network envisioned as a continuation of Metro West eastward from Hunter Street. Identified in the South East Sydney Transport Strategy to 2056, the corridor proposes new underground stations at Zetland (Green Square), Randwick, Maroubra Junction, Maroubra, Malabar, and La Perouse, to be delivered by 2041. The project aims to support high-density urban renewal in the Green Square precinct and reduce pressure on existing light rail and bus corridors. As of 2025-2026, no active planning or funding commitment has been made; the corridor remains marked as future metro subject to further investigation on official NSW Government maps. City of Sydney Council has actively lobbied the NSW Government to accelerate at minimum a Zetland station as part of Stage 1 Metro West.
Sydney Metro Program
Australia's largest public transport program, comprising multiple metro lines across Greater Sydney. The M1 City and Southwest line is operating to Sydenham, while the Sydenham to Bankstown conversion is in final testing with weekend closures scheduled from May to July 2026 as the project moves toward trial running and a second-half 2026 opening. Sydney Metro West is a 24 kilometre underground line between Westmead and Hunter Street targeting a 2032 opening, with confirmed stations at Westmead, Parramatta, Sydney Olympic Park, North Strathfield, Burwood North, Five Dock, The Bays, Pyrmont and Hunter Street. Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport is under construction between St Marys, the new Western Sydney International Airport and Bradfield, with the objective of opening when the airport starts passenger services.
Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy
Comprehensive NSW state planning reforms designed to increase housing density in well-located areas. The policy mandates mid-rise apartment buildings (3-6 storeys) and low-rise multi-dwelling housing (terraces, townhouses, and dual occupancies) within 800m of 171 high-frequency transport hubs and town centres. As of May 2026, the policy is fully operational following the phased rollout of dual occupancy provisions in July 2024 and mid-rise apartment provisions in early 2025. Recent updates include refined floor space ratios (FSR) and non-refusal standards to streamline local council assessments.
Bidhiinja Beach
Bidhiinja Beach is a transformative 210-hectare masterplanned community on the Kurnell Peninsula, converting former sand mining sites into a mixed-use precinct. The proposal includes 4,300 dwellings, a 7,000sqm retail town centre, tourism accommodation, and 116 hectares of public open space (over 50% of the site). Key features include a 2km public beach dedication, Aboriginal cultural trails honoring the Gweagal people, and significant ecological regeneration. The project will be delivered in stages over approximately 20 years, with the town centre identified as the first stage on remediated land.
Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet)
The Mariyung Fleet is a 610-carriage double-deck electric train fleet (D sets) replacing the ageing V-set and Oscar fleets across the NSW intercity network. Delivered by the RailConnect NSW consortium (UGL, Hyundai Rotem, Mitsubishi Electric Australia), the trains feature wider 2x2 seating with arm rests, tray tables and cup holders, charging ports, dedicated luggage, pram and bicycle spaces, accessible toilets, dedicated wheelchair spaces, CCTV, digital information screens and Automatic Selective Door Operation. The fleet operates in 4, 6, 8 or 10-car formations. Passenger services commenced on the Central Coast & Newcastle Line on 3 December 2024, on the Blue Mountains Line on 13 October 2025, and on the South Coast Line on 14 April 2026. The South Coast Line rollout begins with seven 4 and 6-car sets, scaling to 16 trains by 2027 with 8-car sets later in 2026 and 10-car configurations in 2027. The project includes the Kangy Angy Maintenance Facility (operated by UGL on a 15-year contract) and extensive corridor upgrades including platform extensions, signalling modifications, balise installation and overhead wiring works.
Prince Henry at Little Bay
A major urban renewal project by Landcom, transforming the former Prince Henry Hospital site into a new residential and community precinct. The project includes a mix of over 1,000 homes, renovated heritage buildings, aged care accommodation, commercial facilities, and a community centre.
Kamay Ferry Wharves
Completed $78M multi-use wharves at La Perouse and Kurnell in Botany Bay, featuring recreational vessel berthing (up to 20m), fishing facilities, cultural gathering spaces with Aboriginal artworks by Jordan Ardler and Shane Youngberry, and seating areas. Originally designed for ferry connections, the wharves opened in February 2025 without a ferry service after no operators responded to Expression of Interest. Includes extensive seagrass restoration program and seahorse habitat offset measures.
Rail Service Improvement Program (formerly More Trains More Services)
Program of staged upgrades across Sydney's heavy rail network to increase frequency and capacity through digital systems, track and signalling works, station upgrades and new or upgraded rollingstock. Formerly branded as More Trains More Services, the program continues delivery on lines including T4 Eastern Suburbs & Illawarra, T8 Airport & South, and integration works tied to broader network changes.
Employment
Employment performance in Little Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally
Little Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% as of December 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 3.4% over the past year, based on AreaSearch data aggregation.
As of December 2025, 2,590 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 64.7%, below Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high proportion, 46.4% of residents worked from home according to Census responses, possibly due to Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction.
The area had a particularly strong specialization in public administration & safety with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Retail trade had limited presence with 6.3% employment compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 3.4%, alongside labour force growth of 3.4%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2% and labour force expand by 2.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 14.0% over ten years. Applying these projections to Little Bay's employment mix indicates local employment could grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Little Bay has a median income among taxpayers of $72,390 and an average of $101,416. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. By March 2026, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest the median income will be approximately $79,861 and the average $111,882. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Little Bay rank highly nationally, between the 86th and 87th percentiles. Income brackets show 28.3% of residents earn between $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, similar to the metropolitan region at 30.9%. Notably, 38.4% of Little Bay's population earns over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Little Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
The dwelling structure in Little Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 29.0% houses and 71.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Little Bay was at 29.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 41.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Little Bay was recorded at $590, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Little Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Little Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Little Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics
Little Bay's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 42.6% possess university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This includes 26.7% with bachelor degrees, 13.1% with postgraduate qualifications, and 2.8% with graduate diplomas. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.2% of residents holding such qualifications, comprising 12.2% advanced diplomas and 18.0% certificates.
Educational participation is high, with 27.8% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 6.4% in secondary, and 5.2% in tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
The analysis of public transport in Little Bay shows that there are currently 30 operational transport stops serving a variety of bus routes. These stops are spread across 17 different routes, which together facilitate approximately 2484 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing within 180 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most inhabitants commute outside Little Bay for work or other purposes. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 84% of residents, while only 5% rely on buses for their journeys. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per household in the area.
According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion of residents, 46.4%, work from home, which may be partly attributed to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages around 354 trips daily, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Little Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions
Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Little Bay. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence among younger cohorts. The rate of private health cover was found to be high at approximately 67% of the total population, comprising 3,402 people.
This is higher than Greater Sydney's 59.9%, and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions were arthritis (6.7%) and mental health issues (5.4%). A total of 73.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Little Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.3%, with 1,134 people in this age group. This is higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%, but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Little Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics
Little Bay's cultural diversity is notable, with 27.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 39.4% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 56.6%. Judaism is overrepresented in Little Bay at 2.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.
Top ancestry groups are English (21.6%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (12.2%). French (2.0% vs regional 0.5%), Russian (1.1% vs 0.4%), and Polish (1.3% vs 0.6%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Little Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern
The median age in Little Bay is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.2% of the population in Little Bay, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 7.7% to 10.7%, the 35 to 44 cohort has decreased from 16.3% to 15.2%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 10.9% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Little Bay, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 101% (from 179 to 358 people). Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 73% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.