Kurnell

Kurnell has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kurnell is around 2,587, reflecting an increase of 59 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.3% rise from the previous figure of 2,528 residents. The latest estimate, 2,572, was determined by AreaSearch following analysis of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density translates to 133 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Kurnell has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, exceeding the SA4 region's pace. Overseas migration drove recent population gains, contributing approximately 73.0%.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are applied. Growth rates by age group are used for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to increase by 4 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall decline of 0.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kurnell recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Kurnell has received around 12 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 61 homes. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. This results in an estimated 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting supply meets or exceeds demand.

The average construction value is $1,339,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally. Recent development comprises 14.0% detached houses and 86.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands. With around 101 people per dwelling approval, Kurnell is considered a low-density area with stable or declining population expected, potentially easing housing pressure for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Kurnell should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kurnell has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Bidhiinja Beach, Kurnell Visitor Centre Reconstruction, Bidhiinja Beach - Kurnell Peninsula Development, and Kurnell Battery Energy Storage System. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kurnell demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Kurnell's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a significant representation. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of December 2025, 1,444 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 74.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A high 28.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. There are 1.8 workers for every resident, indicating Kurnell functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, labour force grew by 1.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded higher employment growth of 2.2% but with a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest Kurnell's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Kurnell suburb had median income among taxpayers at $46,591 and average income at $70,438. Nationally, the median was $46,277 and average was $77,833. In Greater Sydney, these figures stood at $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Kurnell would be approximately $50,719 (median) and $76,679 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranked at the 75th percentile ($2,161 weekly), while personal income was at the 51st percentile. Distribution data showed that 35.0% of residents (905 people) earned between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupied this range. Higher earners represented a substantial presence with 31.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 17.6% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 73rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Kurnell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kurnell, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.8% houses and 4.2% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurnell stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.6% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Kurnell was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kurnell's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Kurnell features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, consisting of 44.8% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Kurnell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 48.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.3% and certificates at 34.2%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kurnell has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together offer 219 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Kurnell is excellent, with residents typically located just 140 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling in Kurnell, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion (28.1%) of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 31 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kurnell is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kurnell shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low among the general population but higher than national averages for older and at-risk cohorts.

Around 55% (~1,416 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Common medical conditions include arthritis (7.6%) and mental health issues (7.1%), with 73.0% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.3% of residents aged 65 and over (473 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kurnell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kurnell's population showed low cultural diversity, with 87.9% born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 53.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.9%), English (29.6%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maori (1.5%) Dutch (1.8%) and Welsh (0.7%) were overrepresented in Kurnell compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively.

Kurnell's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kurnell is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 4.6% to 6.7%, while those aged 65-74 increased from 8.2% to 10.2%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 14.5% to 12.9%, and those aged 25-34 have dropped from 9.6% to 8.4%. By 2041, Kurnell's age composition is expected to shift notably. The population aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 52%, reaching 264 people from 173. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 94% of the projected growth, while populations aged 45-54 and 25-34 are expected to decline.