Kurnell

Kurnell has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Kurnell's population is estimated at around 2,905 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 377 people (14.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,528 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,902 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 150 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kurnell's 14.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (5.0%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb of Kurnell was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, lower quartile growth of Australian statistical areas is anticipated, with the suburb of Kurnell expected to expand by 50 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 1.6% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kurnell recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Kurnell shows approximately 12 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 61 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 new residents arrive per new home annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $1,339,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally. Development activity has increased recently, with 14.0% standalone homes and 86.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from existing patterns (currently 96.0% houses). Kurnell's population growth is projected to add 47 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand.

Population forecasts indicate Kurnell will gain 47 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kurnell has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Seven projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These key projects include Bidhiinja Beach, Kurnell Visitor Centre Reconstruction, Bidhiinja Beach - Kurnell Peninsula Development, and Kurnell Battery Energy Storage System. The following list details those projects likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Kurnell demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kurnell has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.3% in the past year. Employment growth was estimated at 3.5%.

As of December 2025, 1,557 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is 71.1%, similar to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Notably, 28.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing.

Construction jobs are particularly high at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 4.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area hosts more jobs than residents, with a ratio of 1.8 workers per resident. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment increased by 3.5% while labour force grew by 3.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurnell's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Kurnell has an income level higher than the national average, according to AreaSearch data from the Australian Taxation Office for the financial year ending 30 June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kurnell is $46,591, with an average income of $70,438. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on a 10.32% increase in wages from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes would be approximately $51,399 (median) and $77,707 (average). Census data from 2021 shows Kurnell's household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,161 weekly), with personal income at the 51st percentile. Income distribution reveals that 35.0% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (1,016 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. A substantial proportion of high earners (31.7%) indicates strong economic capacity in the suburb. High housing costs consume 17.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 73rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kurnell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kurnell, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.8% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurnell was at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.6% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, while the median weekly rent was $550. Nationally, Kurnell's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kurnell features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7 people.

Educational attainment in Kurnell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kurnell has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that collectively facilitate 219 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 140 meters of the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 90%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 28.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 31 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kurnell is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kurnell shows above-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 55% (~1,591 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and mental health issues (7.1%). About 73.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Kurnell has 17.7% of residents aged 65 and over (514 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kurnell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kurnell's population was found to be less diverse culturally, with 87.9% born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kurnell, comprising 53.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (29.9%), English (29.6%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maori (1.5%) Dutch (1.8%) and Welsh (0.7%) were overrepresented in Kurnell compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively.

Kurnell's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kurnell is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.0%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 65 to 74 has grown from 8.2% to 10.1%, while those aged 75 to 84 increased from 4.6% to 6.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 14.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, Kurnell's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 59%, reaching 295 people from 185. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 90% of the population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 15-24 years.