Kurnell

Kurnell has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Kurnell's population is estimated at around 2,577, reflecting an increase of 49 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for the suburb, released in June 2024, was 2,562, with an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 133 persons per square kilometer. Kurnell's 1.9% growth since census is within 2.2 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch projections for Kurnell, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, anticipate a decline in overall population by 17 persons by 2041.

However, specific age cohorts are projected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, expected to increase by 123 people over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kurnell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data shows Kurnell recorded around 9 residential property approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 47 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 0.5 new residents per year per dwelling were constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meets or exceeds demand. The average construction value of new dwellings is $1,339,000, targeting the premium market segment.

This financial year, Kurnell has registered $2.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell has approximately half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 59th percentile nationally. New development consists of 18.0% detached houses and 82.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the current housing mix of 96.0% houses due to reduced development sites and changing lifestyle demands. Kurnell has around 259 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. AreaSearch projects Kurnell will add 11 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and supporting potential growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Kurnell adding 11 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kurnell has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect the region. Notable projects include Bidhiinja Beach, Kurnell Visitor Centre Reconstruction, Bidhiinja Beach - Kurnell Peninsula Development, and Kurnell Battery Energy Storage System. The following list outlines those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kurnell demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Kurnell has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.9% and estimated employment growth of 3.5% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 1,423 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is 64.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing. Construction employment is notably high at 2.2 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are limited at 4.7% compared to 11.5% regionally.

There are 1.8 workers per resident, indicating Kurnell functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with industry-specific projections indicating local employment in Kurnell should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Kurnell's median income among taxpayers was $46,591 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $70,438 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kurnell would be approximately $52,466 (median) and $79,320 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,161 weekly), while personal income sits at the 51st percentile. The data shows that 35.0% of Kurnell's population (901 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 31.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 73rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kurnell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kurnell's dwelling structure, as evaluated in the latest Census, comprised 95.8% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurnell was at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.6% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, while the median weekly rent figure was $550. Nationally, Kurnell's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kurnell features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Kurnell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.3% and certificates at 34.2%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

The area has Kurnell Public School and Kamay Botany Bay Environmental Education Centre serving 221 students combined, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) offering balanced educational opportunities. It includes one primary and one K-12 school. There are 8.6 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 13.8, indicating some students may attend adjacent areas' schools. Note that 'n/a' for enrolments indicates referral to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kurnell has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together offer 208 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 140 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 29 trips per day across all routes, which works out to about five weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kurnell is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kurnell exhibits above-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, higher rates are observed among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 55% (~1411 people) have private health cover, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 65.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and mental health issues (7.1%). About 73.0% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 72.3%. Kurnell has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.6% (453 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Kurnell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kurnell, as per the census conducted on the 27th of August, 2016, showed a lower level of cultural diversity compared to the average. The population born in Australia constituted 87.9%, with 92.0% being citizens and 93.6% speaking English at home exclusively. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 53.9% of Kurnell's residents, whereas across Greater Sydney, it stood at 61.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 29.9%, which is higher than the regional average of 24.6%. English and Irish ancestry constituted 29.6% and 9.0% respectively. Notably, Maori, Dutch, and Welsh ethnicities were overrepresented in Kurnell compared to the region, with percentages of 1.5%, 1.8%, and 0.7% respectively.

Kurnell's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kurnell as of 2021 was 38 years, similar to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell had a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.0%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 65-74 increased from 8.2% to 10.1%, while those aged 75-84 grew from 4.6% to 6.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 14.5% to 13.7%. By 2041, Kurnell's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 72%, reaching 270 people from 157. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 91% of the population growth. Meanwhile, declines in population are projected for those aged 15-24 and 45-54.