Kurnell

Kurnell has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Kurnell's population is estimated at around 2,585 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 57 people (2.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,528 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,572 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 133 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kurnell's 2.3% growth since census positions it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the Kurnell statistical area (Lv2) population expected to reduce by 17 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 123 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kurnell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Kurnell has recorded around 13 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 65 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded.

On average, 0.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were added between FY-21 and FY-25. Supply is meeting or surpassing demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new dwellings was $1,339,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 87th percentile nationally in terms of construction activity. However, recent intensification has been noted.

New development consists of 13.0% detached houses and 87.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift is notable compared to the area's existing housing composition, currently 96.0% houses. Kurnell reflects a low density area with around 96 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kurnell is expected to grow by 3 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kurnell has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Bidhiinja Beach, Kurnell Visitor Centre Reconstruction, Bidhiinja Beach - Kurnell Peninsula Development, and Kurnell Battery Energy Storage System. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kurnell demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kurnell has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is particularly prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.4% as of September 2025.

This rate is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, making Kurnell's unemployment rate 1.7% lower than the regional average. Employment growth in Kurnell over the past year was estimated at 2.4%. Workforce participation in Kurnell is 64.2%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. In Kurnell, employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing sectors.

The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, making up only 4.7% of Kurnell's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. As of the Census, there are 1.8 workers for every resident in Kurnell, indicating that it functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force grew by 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4% over the same period, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data for NSW as of 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest that employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurnell's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Kurnell has an income level above the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kurnell is $46,591, and the average income stands at $70,438. In comparison, Greater Sydney's figures are $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Kurnell would be approximately $50,719 (median) and $76,679 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,161 weekly), while personal income sits at the 51st percentile. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 35.0% of residents (904 people). This is consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 30.9% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners (31.7% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout the area. High housing costs consume 17.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 73rd percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kurnell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kurnell's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 95.8% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurnell was at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.6% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,774. Median weekly rent in Kurnell was $550, higher than Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Kurnell's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kurnell features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Kurnell aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (11.9%), secondary (9.6%), and tertiary (2.9%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 45 active stops operating within Kurnell, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by three distinct routes, facilitating a total of 219 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents situated on average 140 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at approximately 31 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kurnell is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kurnell shows better-than-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages. This trend continues even among older cohorts at higher risk.

Approximately 55% (~1,415 people) of Kurnell's total population has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 68.0%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.1% of residents respectively. A majority, 73.0%, report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 72.3%. Kurnell has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.5% (452 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 21.1%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Kurnell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kurnell had a cultural diversity below average, with 87.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 53.9% of people in Kurnell, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.9%), English (29.6%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maori (1.5%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.5%, as were Dutch (1.8%) and Welsh (0.7%).

Kurnell's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kurnell was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years at 38 years as of a certain date. This figure is also equivalent to the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kurnell had a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (15.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 years (9.0%). Between the 2021 Census and a certain later date, the population aged 65 to 74 years grew from 8.2% to 10.0%, while the proportion of those aged 75 to 84 years increased from 4.6% to 6.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 years declined from 14.5% to 13.7%. By a certain date in 2041, Kurnell is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to grow by 71%, reaching 270 people from 157. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 91% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 years and 45 to 54 years age cohorts.