Monterey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Monterey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Monterey is around 4,598, reflecting a decrease of 21 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,619. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,569 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 3,998 persons per square kilometer, placing Monterey in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 128 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 2.1% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Monterey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Monterey has experienced around 20 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 26, totalling an estimated 102 homes. So far in the financial year 2025-26 (FY-26), 15 approvals have been recorded. Monterey has experienced population decline, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $604,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year, there have been $22.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to Greater Sydney. Monterey has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 69th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 46.0% detached dwellings and 54.0% medium and high-density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 195 people per dwelling approval, Monterey shows characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Monterey will gain 99 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Monterey has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects are currently identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact this area. Key projects include St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Brighton RSL Memorial Club Redevelopment, The Brighton Hotel Sydney Redevelopment, and M6 Motorway Stage 1.

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The employment environment in Monterey shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Monterey has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of that date, 2,714 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.0% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation was at 71.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses indicated that 38.4% of residents worked from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Monterey had a notable specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence at 8.5%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 5.4% while labour force grew by 5.6%, resulting in a slight unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. For future insights, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Monterey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Monterey has an average national income level according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Monterey is $53,070, with an average income of $67,189. In comparison, Greater Sydney's figures are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Monterey would be approximately $58,547 (median) and $74,123 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows that incomes in Monterey cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The largest segment comprises 29.5% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, with 1,356 residents falling into this category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Monterey, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 49th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Monterey displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Monterey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 43.5% houses and 56.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Monterey stands at 38.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area is $2,600, while the median weekly rent figure is $480. Nationally, Monterey's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Monterey has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.9% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Monterey places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

"In Monterey Trail regional benchmarks, 31.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 38.7% in the SA3 area. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 18.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.".

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Monterey has 32 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 1,025 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 125 meters. Most residents commute outside Monterey, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 84%. Eight percent use trains. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 38.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes is 146 trips per day, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Monterey's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Monterey's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population, which is around 2,459 people. This compares to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Arthritis and diabetes are the most prevalent medical conditions in Monterey, affecting 7.5 and 5.2% of residents respectively. 74.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% figure across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.5%, compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Monterey is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Monterey has a high level of cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 52.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Monterey, comprising 70.9% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.6%), Greek (18.7%) and Australian (11.9%).

Notably, Greeks are significantly more represented than the regional average of 1.9%, while Australians are notably less represented than the regional average of 17.8%. There are also notable differences in the representation of Spanish (1.8% vs 0.6%), Serbian (2.0% vs 0.5%) and Macedonian (3.6% vs 0.4%) ethnic groups.

Monterey hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Monterey's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.0% of Monterey's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.0%. Post-2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group grew from 12.6% to 13.9%, whereas the 35 to 44 group declined from 13.5% to 12.2% and the 45 to 54 group decreased from 15.3% to 14.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant shifts in Monterey's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 63%, reaching 270 people from 165. Those aged 65 and above will account for 96% of the population growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 45-54 age groups are expected to experience population declines.