Monterey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Monterey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025 the Monterey statistical area's population is estimated at around 4,593. This reflects a decrease of 26 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,619. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 4,582 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,993 persons per square kilometer, placing the Monterey (SA2) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for this area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth is anticipated for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with the Monterey (SA2) expected to expand by 149 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 2.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Monterey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Monterey has had around 21 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years to June 2026, totalling an estimated 105 homes. By June 2026, 10 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $604,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year amounted to $22.1 million, showing moderate commercial development levels. Compared to Greater Sydney, Monterey has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 70th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 44% detached dwellings and 56% medium to high-density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 187 people per dwelling approval, Monterey exhibits low density characteristics.

Population forecasts indicate Monterey will gain 128 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Monterey has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure projects were identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Brighton RSL Memorial Club Redevelopment, and Northern Georges River Submain Upgrade.

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The employment environment in Monterey shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Monterey has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.6% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 2,688 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Monterey is somewhat below standard at 56.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 8.5% employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and a slight increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, comparing favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Monterey's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Monterey has an average national income level according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Monterey is $53,070 and the average income stands at $67,189. For Greater Sydney, these figures are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, current estimates for Monterey's median income would be approximately $57,772 and the average income would be around $73,142. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Monterey cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The largest segment of residents earns between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, comprising 29.5% (1,354 residents), which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Monterey, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 49th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Monterey displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Monterey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 43.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 56.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Monterey stood at 38.1%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 30.6% and rented dwellings making up 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Monterey was recorded at $480, matching Sydney metro's figure of $480. Nationally, Monterey's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Monterey has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.9% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than Greater Sydney's average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Monterey places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

In Monterey Trail regional benchmarks, 31.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. This difference indicates potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 18.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (8.3%), secondary education (6.7%), and tertiary education (4.9%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Monterey shows that there are currently 32 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 1,025 weekly passenger trips provided by three individual routes. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 125 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 146 daily trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Monterey's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Monterey County, California, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, leading that of the average SA2 area by about 10%. This translates to around 2,457 people having private health cover in Monterey County as of June 2021. The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and diabetes, impacting 7.5% and 5.2% of residents respectively, as per data from May 2021. Meanwhile, 74.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.5% across Greater Sydney. As of June 2020, 21.8% of residents in Monterey County were aged 65 and over, totaling around 1,001 people. This is higher than the 16.4% recorded in Greater Sydney during the same period. Health outcomes among seniors in Monterey County are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile as of June 2021.

Monterey is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Monterey's population shows high cultural diversity, with 40.3% born overseas and 52.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Monterey, accounting for 70.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 51.8%. The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.6%), Greek (18.7%), and Australian (11.9%).

Notably, Spanish (1.8%) and Serbian (2.0%) groups are overrepresented in Monterey compared to regional averages of 0.9% each.

Monterey hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Monterey's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.7% of Monterey's population, higher than in Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.4%, and the 35 to 44 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Monterey's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 30% (120 people), reaching 520 from 399. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 91% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 25-34 age groups are expected to experience population declines.