Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is approximately 17,703, reflecting a growth of 1,503 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 9.3% rise from the previous population count of 16,200. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,301 in June 2024 and an additional 248 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 5,058 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (5.5%) and the state since the 2021 Census, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah expected to grow by 2,833 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen around 95 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 478 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident arrives per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand. The average construction value of new properties is $313,000.

In FY26, $16.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Currently, 16.0% of new buildings are standalone homes, while 84.0% are townhouses or apartments. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers, reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 612 people per dwelling approval, the area reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is expected to grow by 2,431 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Sydney Metro West, 324-330 Railway Parade Carlton Development, and Horizon Hurstville. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%. As of that date, 10,928 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%, similar to Greater Sydney's workforce participation rate of 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

However, the latter is under-represented locally at 9.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally as indicated by Census data comparisons of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, labour force by 4.4%, leading to a slight unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% over the same period. Statewide in NSW as of 25-Nov-25, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, lower than the national average of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $50,553 and an average of $63,359. This is slightly lower than the national average, with Greater Sydney's median being $56,994 and average at $80,856. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,928 (median) and $71,349 (average). Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.9% of the community (5,824 individuals), reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as per the latest Census, consisted of 43.4% houses and 56.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was 31.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.5%) or rented (38.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,305, below Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 73.5% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.5%, with lone person households at 22.3% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 38.5%, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (15.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.1% in primary education, 7.8% in tertiary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 66 active stops operating within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah area, serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 12 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,306 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 173 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 329 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover rate is approximately 51% of the total population (~9,063 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.1 and 5.1% of residents respectively. A total of 77.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.7%, with 3,138 people falling into this category, compared to 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, largely aligning with the general population's health profile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 50.7% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah, comprising 53.0% of people. Hinduism is notably overrepresented, making up 8.0% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 6.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.0%), Chinese (16.8%), and Australian (11.0%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Greek (9.2% vs regional 8.8%), Macedonian (3.7% vs 3.8%), and Lebanese (3.6% vs 5.2%) are overrepresented in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah compared to the region.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah as of the 2021 Census was 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah had a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the population aged 15-24 increased from 12.2% to 13.4%, while the 5-14 age group decreased from 10.5% to 9.3%. By 2041, projections indicate significant changes in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah's age composition. The 65-74 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,273 people from 1,644. The population aged 65 and above is projected to comprise 67% of the total growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts.