Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is approximately 17,682. This represents a 9.1% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 16,200 people. The estimated resident population in June 2025 was 17,669, with an additional 257 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 5,052 persons per square kilometer, placing it within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's population growth exceeded both its SA4 region (6.5%) and state averages, indicating strong growth since the 2021 Census. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 85.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is projected to expand by 2,567 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen approximately 95 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 478 homes were approved. In FY26 so far, 77 homes have been approved.

On average, over these five years, one new resident has arrived per new home built. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and enabling population growth. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $313,000. This financial year, $16.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

However, development activity has slowed in recent periods. The new developments consist of 16.0% detached houses and 84.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the current housing pattern of 43.0% houses suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 612 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is projected to grow by 2,554 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Thirty projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3324-330 Railway Parade Carlton development, Horizon Hurstville, and 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.3% as of December 2025. There was an estimated employment growth of 5.4% over the past year.

As of December 2025, there were 11,013 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 1.9%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was 73.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 41.2% of residents worked from home.

The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical. However, professional & technical services were under-represented in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's workforce compared to Greater Sydney, with only 9.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4% and labour force increased by 5.4%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable in contrast to Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah SA2 is approximately average nationally, with a median of $56,112 and an average of $67,476. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $61,903 (median) and $74,440 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 32.9% of locals (5,817 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income category. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as per the latest Census, 43.4% of dwellings were houses while 56.6% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This differed from Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah stood at 31.4%, with mortgaged properties at 30.5% and rented ones at 38.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,305, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's median mortgage repayments were higher at $2,305 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.5% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.5%, with lone person households at 22.3% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 38.5% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the NSW rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 12.4% and certificates make up 15.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.1% in primary, 7.8% in tertiary, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has 72 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 12 routes that facilitate 2,521 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 173 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode at 66%, followed by train at 23% and walking at 5%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 360 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,300 people), leading the average SA2 area rate which stands at 59.9% for Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.1% and 5.1% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 77.3%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.4% (3,248 people) than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 50.7% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 53.0%. Hinduism is overrepresented at 8.0%, compared to 5.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.0%), Chinese (16.8%), and Australian (11.0%). Notably, Greek (9.2%) and Macedonian (3.7%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Lebanese population is also higher at 3.6%.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah as of 2021 is 38 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, the area has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 25-34 grew from 16.1% to 17.6%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 12.2% to 13.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 10.5% to 8.8%, and those aged 45-54 fell from 12.7% to 11.4%. By 2041, Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is projected to experience significant changes in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 57%, reaching 1,553 people from the initial 990. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are projected to comprise 60% of the total population growth. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 35-44 is expected to decrease by 83%.