Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis shows Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population was around 17,703 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a 9.3% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,200 people. The change is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 17,301 in June 2024 and an additional 248 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 5,058 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's growth exceeded both its SA4 region (5.5%) and the state since the 2021 Census, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections show an above median growth is expected nationally, with the area projected to grow by 2,833 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen around 95 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 478 homes. In FY26 so far, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident arrives per year for each new home approved between FY21 and FY25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $565,000.

This financial year has seen $16.5 million in commercial approvals registered, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity comprises 16.0% standalone homes and 84.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 43.0% houses. This trend indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options.

With around 612 people per dwelling approval, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reflects a highly mature market. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 2,431 residents based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 31 such projects that could potentially impact the area. Notable projects include St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Sydney Metro West, 324-330 Railway Parade Carlton Development, and Horizon Hurstville. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. There were 10,740 residents in work by June 2025 with workforce participation similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance and retail trade.

Professional & technical services are under-represented, at 9.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.6%, resulting in a slight unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for the financial year ending June 30, 2022, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $50,553 and an average of $63,359. This was slightly lower than the national averages. In Greater Sydney, the median income was $56,994 with an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since June 30, 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,928 (median) and $71,349 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 to $2,999 captures 32.9% of the community's individuals, totaling 5,824 people, which is similar to the regional pattern where 30.9% fall within this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income in the area, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as per the latest Census, 43.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 56.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah stood at 31.4%, with mortgaged properties at 30.5% and rented dwellings at 38.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,305, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Weekly rent in the area was $450, slightly below Sydney metro's figure of $480. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.5% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.5%, with lone person households at 22.3% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 38.5% among residents aged 15 years and over, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and that of NSW at 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 15.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.1% in primary education, 7.8% in tertiary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 66 active stops operating within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah area. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. Twelve individual routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 2,306 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 173 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 329 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The area has approximately 9,063 people, with about 51% having private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.1% and 5.1% of residents respectively. About 77.3% of residents report no medical ailments, comparable to Greater Sydney's 77.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 17.7% (3,138 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 50.7% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah, comprising 53.0% of the population. However, Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 8.0% versus 6.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.0%), Chinese (16.8%), and Australian (11.0%). Notably, Greek (9.2%) and Macedonian (3.7%) are overrepresented compared to regional figures of 8.8% and 3.8%, respectively, while Lebanese is underrepresented at 3.6% versus Greater Sydney's 5.2%.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years as of the 2021 Census. It was also equivalent to the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah had a higher concentration of residents aged 55-64 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the population share for those aged 15-24 increased from 12.2% to 13.4%, while the share for those aged 5-14 declined from 10.5% to 9.3%. By 2041, projections indicate notable shifts in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's age composition. The 65-74 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,273 people from 1,644. This growth will contribute significantly to the overall population increase, with those aged 65 and above comprising 67% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 5-14.