Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug 2025, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is around 17,700. This reflects an increase of 1,500 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,200. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,301 as of June 2024 and an additional 247 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5,057 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 9.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (5.3%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah expected to grow by 2,833 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting a 13.8% increase over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen approximately 95 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 478 homes. So far in FY2026, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 1 new resident arrives per year for each new home approved between FY2021 and FY2025, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties over this period is $565,000.

This financial year has seen $16.5 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity in the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Of new building activity, 16.0% consists of standalone homes and 84.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards denser development to cater to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend mirrors the decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 612 people per dwelling approval, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah exhibits a highly mature market. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 2,434 residents. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified thirty projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, and two developments in Carlton: 324-330 Railway Parade and 19-23 Bembridge Street.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025 and the estimated employment growth over the past year was also 2.3%.

In this period, 10,740 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services, with the latter being under-represented at 9.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, while labour force increased by 2.6%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. As of Sep-25, NSW's employment had contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%, which compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's median income among taxpayers is $50,553. The average income in the area is $63,359. This is slightly lower than the national average. Comparing with Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856 shows a similar trend. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimates for March 2025 would be approximately $55,912 (median) and $70,075 (average). Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 32.9% of the community's individuals, with a total of 5,823 people. This pattern is similar to the region where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income in the area. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 61st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as per the latest Census evaluation, 43.4% of dwellings were houses while 56.6% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was similar to that of Sydney metro, standing at 31.4%. Other dwelling tenures included mortgaged properties (30.5%) and rented accommodations (38.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,305, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 73.5% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.5%, consisting of 22.3% lone person households and 4.1% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 38.5% of residents aged 15+, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 12.4% and certificates make up 15.0%.

Educational participation is high at 29.6%, including 8.1% in primary education, 7.8% in tertiary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education. The area has two schools serving 1,375 students - Carlton South Public School and St George Christian School. It demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1114. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school. There are 7.8 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 11.4, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has 66 active public transport stops, served by a mix of train and bus routes. There are 12 individual routes operating in the area, collectively providing 2,306 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 173 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 329 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 51% (~9,062 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (6.1%) and asthma (5.1%). About 77.3% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.5%. Residents aged 65 and over make up 17.7% (3,138 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 50.7% of its population born overseas as of the 2016 Census. Additionally, 59.9% spoke a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 53.0% of the population.

However, Hinduism showed an overrepresentation, with 8.0% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 6.6%. The top three ancestry groups were Other (20.0%), Chinese (16.8%), and Australian (11.0%). Notably, Greek (9.2%) and Macedonian (3.7%) were overrepresented, while Lebanese was underrepresented at 3.6% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years as of the 2021 Census. It was also equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah had a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 12.2% to 13.4%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 decreased from 10.5% to 9.3%. By 2041, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. The 65-74 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,273 from 1,644, comprising 67% of the population growth. Meanwhile, populations aged 0-4 and 5-14 are projected to decline.