Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is around 17,727 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,527 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,200. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,301 in June 2024 and an additional 256 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5,064 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's growth of 9.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (7.6%) and the SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected, with the area expected to grow by 2,833 persons, reflecting a total increase of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen approximately 95 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 478 homes. As of FY26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident arrives per year for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, suggesting supply meets or exceeds demand. The average construction cost value of new properties is $313,000.

This financial year has seen $16.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. The majority of new developments are townhouses or apartments (84%), with standalone homes comprising 16%. This shift reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles, with more diverse housing options required.

With around 612 people per dwelling approval, the market is highly mature. By 2041, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is projected to grow by 2,407 residents. Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, favouring buyers and potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones include Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3324-330 Railway Parade Carlton Development, and Horizon Hurstville. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%.

As of September 2025, 10,928 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.8% and workforce participation of 75.3%, both higher than Greater Sydney's figures. Census responses indicated that 41.2% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented compared to Greater Sydney, with only 9.5% of the workforce in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,112 and an average of $67,476. This places it approximately at the national average, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $61,084 and an average of $73,454 as of September 2025. Census data reveals that incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The earnings band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 32.9% of the community (5,832 individuals), reflecting a pattern seen regionally where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as per the latest Census, 43.4% of dwellings were houses while 56.6% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Sydney metropolitan area's breakdown of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the region stood at 31.4%, with mortgaged properties at 30.5% and rented ones at 38.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,305, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent median figure was $450 compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.5% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.5%, with lone person households at 22.3% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 38.5% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas comprise 12.4% and certificates make up 15.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.1% in primary education, 7.8% in tertiary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has 72 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 12 routes, facilitating 2,521 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent with residents typically located 173 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, predominantly by car (66%), followed by train (23%) and walking (5%). Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 360 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows excellent health outcomes, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,324 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (6.1%) and asthma (5.1%), with 77.3% of residents reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Despite strong health outcomes among seniors, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay-Carlton-Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 50.7% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 53.0%. Hinduism is overrepresented at 8.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.0%), Chinese (16.8%) and Australian (11.0%). Notably, Greek (9.2%), Macedonian (3.7%) and Lebanese (3.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's averages of 1.9%, 0.4% and 2.6% respectively.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.1%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.2% to 13.7%, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 10.5% to 9.1% and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.7% to 11.5%. By 2041, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is expected to experience significant changes in its age composition. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 56%, reaching 1,592 from 1,022. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 63% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts.