Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is around 17,727 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,527 people (9.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,200 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,301 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 256 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5,064 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's 9.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (7.6%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 84.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to grow by 2,833 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has seen around 95 new homes approved annually, totalling 478 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 1 new resident per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $313,000. Additionally, $16.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah maintains similar construction rates (per person), supporting market stability in line with regional patterns, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 16.0% standalone homes and 84.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 43.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 612 people per dwelling approval, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah reflects a highly mature market.

Looking ahead, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is expected to grow by 2,407 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 31 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3324-330 Railway Parade Carlton Development, and Horizon Hurstville, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 5.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,013 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (75.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 41.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical. On the other hand, professional & technical is under-represented, with only 9.5% of Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 5.4% while labour force increased by 5.4%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah SA2's median income among taxpayers is $56,112, with an average of $67,476. This is approximately average nationally, and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,084 (median) and $73,454 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.9% of the community (5,832 individuals), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 43.4% houses and 56.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah was higher than that of Sydney metro, at 31.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.5%) or rented (38.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Sydney metro average at $2,305, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 73.5% of all households, comprising 36.4% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.5%, with lone person households at 22.3% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people matches the Greater Sydney average.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (38.5% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and that of NSW (32.2%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (15.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.1% in primary education, 7.8% in tertiary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 72 active transport stops operating within Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 12 individual routes, collectively providing 2,521 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 173 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 66%, with 23% by train and 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling. A high 41.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 360 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,324 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.1 and 5.1% of residents, respectively, while 77.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,300 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 50.7% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is Christianity, which makes up 53.0% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 8.0% of the population, compared to 5.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah are Other, comprising 20.0% of the population, Chinese, comprising 16.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%, and Australian, comprising 11.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 17.8%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Greek is notably overrepresented at 9.2% of Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah (vs 1.9% regionally), Macedonian at 3.7% (vs 0.4%) and Lebanese at 3.6% (vs 2.6%).

Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 38-year median age in Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (12.8%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (9.1%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.2% to 13.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.5% to 9.1% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 12.7% to 11.5%. By 2041, Kogarah Bay - Carlton - Allawah is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 56% (569 people), reaching 1,592 from 1,022. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 63% of projected growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts.