Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population is around 13,536 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 563 people (4.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,973 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,340 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,571 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 455 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has averaged around 46 new dwelling approvals per year, with 233 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 23 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.1 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $383,000. Additionally, $19.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 80.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is expected to grow by 259 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 26 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City & Southwest, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 3.0%, and 5.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,733 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 46.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in finance & insurance, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 12.7% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 5.3% alongside labour force increasing by 5.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,590 with the average level standing at $73,698. This is above the national average and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,604 (median) and $80,228 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 27.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,735 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 32.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 67th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 80.0% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 42.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.2%) or rented (27.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $2,700, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.3% of all households, comprising 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park trail regional benchmarks, with 33.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.7% in the SA3 area. This gap highlights the potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (15.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 152 active transport stops operating within Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 33 individual routes, collectively providing 5,403 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 117 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 79%, with 13% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 46.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 771 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~7,593 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.4% and 5.3% of residents, respectively, while 75.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,906 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park scores highly on cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 54.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is Christianity, which makes up 62.3% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park are Chinese, comprising 16.6% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%), Greek, comprising 16.3% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 1.9%), and Other, comprising 13.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Lebanese is overrepresented at 5.3% in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park (vs 2.6% regionally), Macedonian at 1.3% (vs 0.4%), and Vietnamese at 2.0% (vs 1.8%).

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is significantly above Greater Sydney's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 7.6% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.6% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 13.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 43% (445 people), reaching 1,473 from 1,027. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.