Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population is around 13,536 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 563 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,973 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,340 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,571 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of Australian statistical areas is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 455 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 1.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY26, 23 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per new home in this period was 0.1. Commercial approvals registered this financial year totalled $19.0 million.

Compared to Greater Sydney, the area has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally. New building activity comprised 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings. The location has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park is projected to grow by 259 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is expected to grow by 259 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 26 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City & Southwest. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 3.1% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.0%.

There were 7,678 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 1.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was on par with Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 46.0% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area had a notably high concentration in finance & insurance with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance had limited presence with 12.7% employment compared to 14.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 4.0% while labour force grew by 4.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasted with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,590 and an average of $73,698. Nationally, the median was lower at $47,160 with an average of $71,914. In Greater Sydney, the median was $60,817 and the average was $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $61,604 (median) and $80,228 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income is at the 41st percentile. Income distribution shows 27.6% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the broader area's 30.9%. High earning households (exceeding $3,000 weekly) make up 32.7%, supporting consumer spending. Housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as per the latest Census, consists of 80.0% houses and 20.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park stands at 42.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.2%) or rented (27.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area is $2,700, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure stands at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.3% of all households, including 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, 33.7% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. This difference indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 11.2% while certificates make up 15.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has 152 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 33 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,403 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing 117 metres from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with car being the primary mode at 79%, and train at 13%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 46% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 771 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 35 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is found to be very high at approximately 56% of the total population, which consists of around 7,593 people. This compares to a rate of 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.4 and 5.3% of residents respectively. A total of 75.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. In terms of age distribution, the area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,829 people), which is higher than the 15.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 54.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park, comprising 62.3% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (16.6%), Greek (16.3%), and Other (13.5%).

Notable ethnic group representations include Lebanese at 5.3%, Macedonian at 1.3%, and Vietnamese at 2.0%.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 7.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.6%, and the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 48%, reaching 1,473 people from 997. Notably, all population growth will come from age groups 65 and above, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 45 to 54 and 15 to 24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.