Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population was 12,973 as of May 2021. By May 2026, it had increased to around 13,476, a rise of 503 people (3.9%). This growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,471 in June 2025 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 3,555 persons per square kilometer as of May 2026, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's growth rate of 3.9% since May 2021 is within 2.6 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 6.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is expected to grow by 415 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 3.0% in total over the 16 years from May 2021 to May 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year arrive for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering buyers more choices and enabling population growth that may surpass current expectations.

The average construction value of new properties is $383,000. In the current financial year, $19.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and catering to various price brackets. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix of 80.0% houses.

The area has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is projected to grow by 410 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City and Southwest. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 3.0% as of December 2015. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%.

As of December 2025, 7,733 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, a high 46.0% of residents were found to work from home. Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area demonstrates particularly notable concentration in finance & insurance, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Meanwhile, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 12.7% employment compared to 14.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the period from December 2024 to December 2025 saw employment increasing by 5.3% alongside labour force increasing by 5.3%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 1.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,590 and an average of $73,698. This is higher than the national average, with Greater Sydney's median being $60,817 and average at $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $62,430 (median) and $81,304 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income is at the 41st percentile. Income distribution shows that 27.6% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range (3,719 individuals). Economic strength is evident with 32.7% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as per the latest Census, 80.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 20.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park was 42.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.2% and rented ones at 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, above Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in the area was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.3% of all households, including 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park trail region, 33.7% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. This difference indicates potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (15.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has 152 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 33 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,403 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 117 meters to the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward using cars as the dominant mode at 79%, while 13% use trains. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 46% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 771 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~7,560 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 6.4 and 5.3% of residents respectively. 75.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.3% (2,866 people), compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a high cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 54.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park, comprising 62.3%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (16.6%), Greek (16.3%), and Other (13.5%).

These percentages are substantially higher than the regional averages of 8.4%, 1.9%, respectively, for Chinese and Greek ancestry. Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 2.6%. Macedonian and Vietnamese ethnicities also show notable divergences with 1.3% and 2.0% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 1.8%.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national median age of 38 years. The age group of 75-84 years has a strong representation at 7.6%, compared to the overall figure for Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 11.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.4% of the population, while the 0 to 4 age group has decreased from 5.3% to 4.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 45%, adding 460 people, reaching a total of 1,483 from the current figure of 1,022. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 96% of the total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.