Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug 2025, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population is around 13,340. Between the 2021 Census and Jun 2024, it increased by 367 people to 12,973 from an estimated resident population of 13,340. This growth reflects a density ratio of 3,519 persons per square kilometer, placing Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park in the upper quartile nationally. The area's 2.8% growth since the Census is within 2.5 percentage points of its SA4 region's 5.3%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is expected to grow by 455 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 3.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park averages around 46 new dwelling approvals annually. The ABS produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 233 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25, with 2 so far in FY-26. Over the past five years, an average of 0.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed has been recorded. This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $563,000. In FY-26, there have been $19.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has approximately two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally. This activity is below the national average, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across price brackets.

This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (80.0%). The location has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park is projected to grow by 455 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City & Southwest. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.7% over the past year.

This is below Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area was 56.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Finance & insurance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance has limited presence with 12.7% employment compared to the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Over the past year, employment increased by 2.7% while labour force grew by 2.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that while national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park had a median income among taxpayers of $51,708 and an average of $69,456. This is higher than the national average. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income was $56,994 with an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from July 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $57,189 (median) and $76,818 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income distribution shows 27.6% of the population (3,681 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. This is similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Economic strength is indicated by 32.7% of households earning more than $3,000 weekly, supporting consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park dwellings were 80.0% houses and 20.0% other types at the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other types. Home ownership in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park was 42.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.2% and rented ones at 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent was $500, higher than Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park had significantly higher mortgage repayments at $2,700 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and substantially higher rents at $500 compared to the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.3% of all households, including 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households making up 20.5% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park show that 33.7% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 26.7% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 15.5%. Current educational participation is high, with 28.6% enrolled in formal education: primary (8.4%), secondary (7.9%), and tertiary (6.5%).

Seven schools operate in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, educating approximately 3,168 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1065), with a balanced provision of five primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. It functions as an education hub, offering 23.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 11.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has 115 active public transport stops. These are served by 33 different routes. Together, these provide 5064 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 117 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 723 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows exceptional results for Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park area.

Common health conditions have very low prevalence across all age groups. Approximately 54% of the total population (~7,256 people) has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.4% and 5.3% of residents respectively. 75.1% of residents declare they are completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. 20.9% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,788 people), higher than the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 54.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park, accounting for 62.3% of people, compared to 51.8% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (16.6%), Greek (16.3%, notably higher than the regional average of 8.8%), and Other (13.5%, significantly lower than the regional average of 21.4%).

There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, including Lebanese at 5.3% (vs 5.2% regionally), Macedonian at 1.3% (vs 3.8%), and Vietnamese at 2.0% (vs 1.3%).

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 7.4% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes 11.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.6%, whereas the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.5% to 10.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 1,473 from 983. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 97% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.