Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population is around 13,335. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 12,973 people, a growth of 362 individuals or approximately 2.8%. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 13,340, with an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 3,518 persons per square kilometer, placing Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate since census is 2.8%, which is within 2.7 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 5.5%. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park expected to grow by 455 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers. This reflects a total gain of approximately 3.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. The average rate of new residents per year arriving for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.1. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and facilitating population growth that may surpass current projections.

The average value of new properties being constructed is $563,000. In this financial year alone, $19.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has approximately two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally, indicating an established area with potential planning limitations. The current housing mix shows 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a growing range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets. This is a notable shift from the previous housing mix, which was predominantly houses (80.0%).

The area has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park is expected to grow by 460 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable ones include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City & Southwest. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. There were 7,674 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 56.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area demonstrated notable concentration in finance & insurance with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance had limited presence with 12.7% employment compared to 14.1% regionally. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period, employment increased by 2.7% alongside labour force increasing by 2.6%, keeping unemployment rate relatively stable at 3.9%. This contrasted with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.6%, labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rose to 4.5%. State-level data for NSW as of Nov-25 showed employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park SA2 had a median income of $51,708 and an average income of $69,456 among taxpayers. Nationally, the median income was lower at $45,573 with an average of $73,392. In Greater Sydney, the median income was $56,994 and the average was $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park SA2 would be approximately $58,228 (median) and $78,214 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income distribution shows 27.6% of the population falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 32.7% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting higher consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.0% houses and 20.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is in contrast to Sydney metro's figures of 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park stood at 42.5%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 30.2% and rented dwellings making up 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,700, which is higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park area, as of the latest available data, 33.7% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. This difference indicates potential for educational growth and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.7% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.2% and certificates for 15.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has 115 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 33 individual routes operating in the area.

Together, these routes provide 5,064 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 117 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 723 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common conditions across all ages.

Approximately 54% (~7,254 people) have private health cover, higher than Greater Sydney's average. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.4 and 5.3% respectively. About 75.1% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 77.5%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 20.9% (2,787 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove South-Bardwell Park has high cultural diversity, with 40.3% of its population born overseas and 54.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 62.3%. This compares to the Greater Sydney average of 51.8%.

Top ancestry groups are Chinese (16.6%), Greek (16.3%, higher than the regional average of 8.8%), and Other (13.5%, lower than the regional average of 21.4%). Notably, Lebanese (5.3% vs regional 5.2%), Macedonian (1.3% vs 3.8%), and Vietnamese (2.0% vs 1.3%) groups are overrepresented.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 7.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.6%, but the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 50%, reaching 1,473 people from 982, with the combined 65+ age groups accounting for 97% of total population growth. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.