Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's population is approximately 13,340 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents an increase of 367 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,973. The growth was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data in June 2024 and eight new addresses validated after the Census date. The population density is around 3,519 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's growth rate of 2.8% since the Census is within 2.5 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 5.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park expected to grow by 455 persons to 2041 based on the latest numbers, recording a total gain of 3.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY26 to date, 8 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year have arrived for each new home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average value of new properties constructed is $563,000. In FY26, $19.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally. This indicates an established area with potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a growing range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets.

This is a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (80.0%). The location has approximately 312 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Looking ahead, Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park is projected to grow by 455 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could impact the area, significantly influenced by local infrastructure changes. Notable projects include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Sydney Metro City & Southwest. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in June 2025, which is 1.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. There were 7,674 residents in work, with workforce participation at 56.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Finance & insurance has notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance has limited presence, with 12.7% employment compared to the regional average of 14.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while the labour force grew by 2.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 2.9%. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, the labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment rise to 4.5%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kingsgrove South - Bardwell Park's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's median income among taxpayers was $51,708, with an average of $69,456. This is higher than the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from July 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $57,189 (median) and $76,818 (average). According to Census data collected in August 2021, household income ranks at the 67th percentile ($2,027 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income distribution shows that 27.6% of the population (3,681 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Economic strength is evident through 32.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 67th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as evaluated at the latest Census dated 2016, comprised 80.0% houses and 20.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park was at 42.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged at 30.2% or rented at 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of June 2019, was $2,700, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500. In comparison, Sydney metro's figures were $2,383 and $480 respectively for mortgage repayments and rents. Nationally, Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of June 2020, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 40.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park, as of a specific date, 33.7% of residents aged 15+ held university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. Bachelor degrees were most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Vocational credentials were prominent, with 26.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 15.5%. Educational participation was high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This included 8.4% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education. Seven schools operated within the area, educating approximately 3,168 students. The area demonstrated above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1065). Education provision was balanced with five primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. As a hub for education, the area provided 23.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 11.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park has 115 active transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. There are 33 individual routes servicing these stops, providing 5,064 weekly passenger trips in total.

The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 117 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 723 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park shows excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all ages.

Approximately 54% (~7,256 people) have private health cover, which is high compared to the region. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.4 and 5.3% of residents respectively. About 75.1% report no medical ailments, close to Greater Sydney's 77.5%. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 20.9% (2,788 people), higher than the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsgrove South-Bardwell Park has high cultural diversity: 40.3% of its population was born overseas, and 54.8% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion here, with 62.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 51.8%. Top ancestry groups are Chinese (16.6%), Greek (16.3%), and Other (13.5%).

Notably, Lebanese (5.3%) and Macedonian (1.3%) groups exceed regional averages, while Vietnamese (2.0%) is slightly higher than the regional average of 1.3%.

Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Kingsgrove (South) - Bardwell Park is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 7.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.5%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Sydney. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.5% to 10.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 50%, reaching 1,473 people from 983, leading the demographic shift. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 97% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.