Bardwell Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bardwell Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Bardwell Valley is around 2,637. This reflects a growth of 293 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,344. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,602 in June 2024, based on ABS ERP data, and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,995 persons per square kilometer, placing Bardwell Valley in the top 10% nationally. The suburb's growth rate of 12.5% since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (5.5%) and state averages. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Future projections indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Bardwell Valley expected to increase by 717 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 26.0% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Bardwell Valley when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Bardwell Valley averaged around 20 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 102 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed was seen.

The average construction value for new properties is $501,000. Comparing Bardwell Valley to Greater Sydney, its development activity is moderately higher, at 47.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. All new constructions have been attached dwellings, which creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Bardwell Valley has approximately 50 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate forecasts the location to gain 686 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Bardwell Valley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include the Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan, Arncliffe Park Upgrade, Rockdale Bicentennial Park Reinstatement, and Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Bardwell Valley demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Bardwell Valley has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.7%.

As of June 2025, 1,417 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Bardwell Valley is at 54.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, construction employment levels are at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 9.5% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while labour force increased by 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 2.2%. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Bardwell Valley. These projections suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bardwell Valley's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Bardwell Valley had a median taxpayer income of $49,521 and an average income of $61,275. Nationally, the median was $56,994 and the average was $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $55,766 and the average around $69,002, based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since 2022. The 2021 Census ranks household income at the 72nd percentile ($2,099 weekly) and personal income at the 48th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 29.7% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (783 individuals). The district has considerable affluence with 33.5% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 73rd percentile. SEIFA income ranking places Bardwell Valley in the 7th decile.

Bardwell Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bardwell Valley, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 66.2% houses and 33.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bardwell Valley stood at 45.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (17.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, higher than Sydney metropolitan average of $2,383 recorded as of June 2021. Median weekly rent figure stood at $550, compared to Sydney metropolitan's $480. Nationally, Bardwell Valley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 reported in January 2021, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 recorded in the same period.

Bardwell Valley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.4% of all households, including 39.2% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Bardwell Valley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Bardwell Valley trail regional benchmarks. 30.5% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 38.7% in the SA3 area. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (17.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows eight active stops in operation within Bardwell Valley, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by two distinct routes, cumulatively facilitating 180 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents positioned an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at approximately 25 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Bardwell Valley is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Bardwell Valley shows better-than-average health results, with both younger and older residents having low rates of common health issues.

Approximately 51% (~1,349 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (7.8%) and mental health problems (5.6%), while 71.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over make up 19.7% (519 people), higher than the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes are above average, similar to those of the general population.

Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bardwell Valley has a high level of cultural diversity, with 34.4% of its population born overseas and 45.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Bardwell Valley, comprising 52.2% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 19.9% of Bardwell Valley's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (15.4%), English (15.3%), and Lebanese (12.3%), which is significantly higher than the regional average. Notably, Greek (7.8%) and Macedonian (4.1%) ethnicities are also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 8.8% and 3.8%, respectively.

Bardwell Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Bardwell Valley is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 65-74 years has a strong representation at 10.3%, compared to the overall figure for Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age cohort is less prevalent at 9.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 13.7% to 15.5%, and the 15 to 24 age group increased from 11.5% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age cohort decreased from 12.9% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts in Bardwell Valley. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 86%, adding 352 people, reaching a total of 761 from the previous figure of 408. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.