Bardwell Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bardwell Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Bardwell Valley's estimated population is around 2,565. This reflects an increase of 221 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,344. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2,560 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of one new address since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,886 persons per square kilometer, placing Bardwell Valley in the top 10% nationally according to AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 9.4% exceeded both its SA4 region (7.5%) and state averages since the 2021 Census. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. These projections forecast significant population growth in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas for Bardwell Valley, with an expected increase of 711 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 29.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bardwell Valley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Bardwell Valley averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals each year between FY-17 and FY-21, totalling an estimated 10 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), there were on average 16.3 new residents per year for every home built.

This demand significantly exceeds supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new properties was $501,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bardwell Valley had 86.0% less development activity per person as of FY-26. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. All new construction in Bardwell Valley between FY-17 and FY-21 was comprised of townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 66.0% houses. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 1287 people per dwelling approval, Bardwell Valley reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 752 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Bardwell Valley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan, Arncliffe Park Upgrade (scheduled for completion in June 2021), Rockdale Bicentennial Park Reinstatement (commenced in April 2020 and due for completion in late 2021), Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment (started in July 2020, expected to finish by mid-2022). These are the key projects likely to have the most relevance.

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Bardwell Valley ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Bardwell Valley has a well-educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of September 2025, 1,432 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lags at 54.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 9.5% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the past year, employment increased by 3.9% while labour force increased by 4.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney where employment grew by 2.1%, labour force expanded by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bardwell Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on 29 June 2023 for financial year ending 30 June 2023, Bardwell Valley suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $49,521 with an average income of $61,275. These figures are lower than the national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 for Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending 30 June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $53,909 and average income is $66,704 as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,099 weekly) while personal income sits at the 48th percentile. Income analysis shows that 29.7% of the community (761 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. The suburb demonstrates considerable affluence with 33.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 73rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Bardwell Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bardwell Valley's dwelling structures, according to the latest Census, consisted of 66.2% houses and 33.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bardwell Valley was at 45.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.2% and rented ones at 17.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $550, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Bardwell Valley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bardwell Valley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.4% of all households, including 39.2% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 22.6%, composed of 19.0% lone person households and 2.5% group households. The median household size is 2.9 people, exceeding the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Bardwell Valley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Bardwell Valley trail regional benchmarks, with 30.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.7% in SA3 area. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (17.3%). Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 15 active public transport stops in Bardwell Valley, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two specific routes, offering a total of 191 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 181 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, buses arrive at these stops every 27 minutes throughout the day, which translates to about 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Bardwell Valley is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Bardwell Valley shows better-than-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (~1,313 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 54.1%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.8%) and mental health issues (5.6%). About 71.9% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 77.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 19.8% (507 people), versus Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Health outcomes for seniors are above average and align with the general population's health profile.

Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bardwell Valley has a high level of cultural diversity, with 34.4% of its population born overseas and 45.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bardwell Valley, with 52.2% of people identifying as such. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 19.9% of Bardwell Valley's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (15.4%), English (15.3%), and Lebanese (12.3%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Notably, Greek (7.8%) and Macedonian (4.1%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Serbian is slightly underrepresented at 0.7% versus 0.9%.

Bardwell Valley's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Bardwell Valley is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's national figure of 38. The strongest representation in Bardwell Valley is the 65-74 age group at 10.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.7% to 15.5% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.8%. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Bardwell Valley. Notably, the 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 91%, adding 361 people and reaching a total of 759 from its current figure of 397. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort is forecasted to decline by 63 people.