Bardwell Park

Bardwell Park is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Bardwell Park statistical area (Lv2), as estimated by AreaSearch, was around 2,392 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 72 people from the 2021 Census count of 2,320 residents. The latest resident population estimate of 2,358, based on ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of 2,491 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections up to 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Bardwell Park (SA2) is expected to increase by 68 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of approximately 3.3% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bardwell Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Bardwell Park averaged around 11 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 55 homes were approved, with one more approved so far in FY-26.

On average, 0.3 new residents arrived per new home over these five years. This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings was $563,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bardwell Park shows 17.0% lower construction activity per person but places among the 76th percentile nationally when measured by building activity. However, construction activity has accelerated in recent years.

The new building activity consists of 43.0% detached dwellings and 57.0% medium and high-density housing. This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 87.0% houses. Bardwell Park has approximately 159 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is projected to add 79 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bardwell Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects likely affecting this region. Notable initiatives include Bexley North High Density Residential Development, Salvation Army Bexley North Subdivision, Booralee Park Playspace Renewal and Fitness Station, and Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Bardwell Park ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Bardwell Park has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.4%.

As of September 2025, 1,500 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.8% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in education & training, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. Education & training has particularly strong representation at 1.5 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance is lower at 11.1% compared to the regional average of 14.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, comparing favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bardwell Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Bardwell Park is among the highest in Australia. The median assessed income is $62,076 and the average income stands at $83,383. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,576 (median) and $90,771 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank exceptionally at the 87th percentile ($2,386 weekly). Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 29.7% of locals (710 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Economic strength emerges through 40.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.6% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Bardwell Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bardwell Park, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, consisted of 86.7% houses and 13.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bardwell Park stood at 43.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.1% and rented ones at 19.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,800, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent in Bardwell Park was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Bardwell Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bardwell Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 42.0% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.0% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Bardwell Park shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 36.5%, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (15.7%).

Educational participation is high at 29.2%, including secondary education (8.9%), primary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (6.5%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Bardwell Park has 31 operational public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. Seven different routes service these stops, collectively offering 2,972 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents usually located 111 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 424 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 95 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bardwell Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Bardwell Park shows excellent health outcomes across all ages, with very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% (1,431 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 54.1%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.2% and 6.2% respectively. A total of 73.4% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 19.9% (476 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's profile.

Bardwell Park was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bardwell Park's population shows high cultural diversity, with 33.5% born overseas and 46.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bardwell Park, accounting for 63.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 51.8%. The top three ancestral groups are Greek (17.9%), English (13.7%), and Other (13.4%).

Notably, Lebanese (4.1%) and Hungarian (0.5%) groups are overrepresented in Bardwell Park compared to regional averages of 5.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while Macedonian (0.9%) is underrepresented compared to the region's 3.8%.

Bardwell Park's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Bardwell Park is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 13.3% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.7% to 14.3%, but the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.3% to 10.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 49%, reaching 249 people from 167. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 95% of total population growth, reflecting Bardwell Park's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.