Arncliffe

Arncliffe lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Arncliffe statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 13,016 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 993 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,023 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 12,980 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 130 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,472 persons per square kilometer, which places Arncliffe (SA2) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth of 8.3% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the SA4 region at 7.5% and the state level, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is projected for the Arncliffe (SA2), with an expected increase of 3,265 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 24.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe has seen approximately 197 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 987 homes were approved in the area between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 103 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.9 people have moved to Arncliffe for each dwelling built over the past five financial years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new properties in Arncliffe is approximately $493,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial approvals registered have totaled $239,000, reflecting a predominantly residential focus in the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has 190.0% more building activity per person, demonstrating strong developer confidence in the location and offering buyers greater choice. The new building activity shows a skew towards compact living, with 5.0% detached houses and 95.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 40.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. Arncliffe exhibits characteristics of a growth area, with around 30 people expected to move in for each dwelling approval.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain approximately 3,160 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Arncliffe has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 43 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Arncliffe Central, Arncliffe Central, Northern Georges River Submain Upgrade, and Wolli Creek and T8 Airport Line Power Supply Upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Arncliffe ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Arncliffe has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.2%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 3.8%. As of September 2025, 8,135 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation is lower than standard, at 57.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

The area shows high specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.7 times the regional level) but lower representation in health care & social assistance (11.6% vs regional average of 14.1%). Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, labour force by 4.2%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment (0.4 percentage points). In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded lower employment growth (2.1%) and labour force growth (2.4%), with a smaller increase in unemployment (0.2 percentage points). Statewide, NSW employment contracted slightly (-0.03%) between November 2024 and 25-Nov-25, losing 2,260 jobs, while the state unemployment rate was 3.9%, lower than the national average of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Arncliffe's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Arncliffe's median income is $53,386 and average income is $66,101. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,116 (median) and $71,958 (average). According to Census 2021 data, Arncliffe's household, family, and personal incomes are at the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets reveal that 36.4% of Arncliffe residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing costs consume 18.9% of income in Arncliffe, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 64th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Arncliffe features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Arncliffe's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 40.2% houses and 59.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe was at 24.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 41.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,319, below Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Arncliffe was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Arncliffe's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.4% of all households, consisting of 31.5% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 7.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Arncliffe exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Arncliffe's educational attainment is notably higher than national and state averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 40.9% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 27.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.2% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.2% and certificates for 14.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.7% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe has 53 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes, together facilitating 2,375 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 179 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 339 trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Arncliffe's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Arncliffe demonstrates excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a low prevalence of common health conditions.

As of approximately June 2021 (~6,908 people), private health cover stands at around 53%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis were the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 5.6% and 5.1% of residents respectively. Around 78.4% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. Arncliffe has an elderly population (aged 65 and over) of approximately 11.6% (1,509 people), lower than the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. The health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, closely mirroring those of the general population.

Arncliffe is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe has one of the most culturally diverse populations in the country, with 51.3% of its residents born overseas and 60.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Arncliffe, accounting for 38.8% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, comprising 21.8% of the population compared to the Greater Sydney average of 10.3%.

The top three ancestral groups in Arncliffe are Other at 22.0%, Australian at 11.8%, and English at 11.3%. Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 11.0% compared to the regional average of 5.2%, Macedonian at 4.6% compared to 3.8%, and Spanish at 1.0% compared to 0.9%.

Arncliffe hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (23.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.0%). The concentration of residents aged 25-34 in Arncliffe is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population of residents aged 35 to 44 has grown from 16.0% to 17.8%, while the population of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 11.0% to 10.1%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Arncliffe. The population of residents aged 35 to 44 is expected to grow by 83%, adding 1,919 residents to reach a total of 4,236. Conversely, population declines are projected for the age groups 25-34 and 15-24.