Arncliffe

Arncliffe lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Arncliffe's population is estimated at around 13,018 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 995 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,023. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,980 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,473 persons per square kilometer, placing Arncliffe in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Arncliffe's growth of 8.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA4 region (7.6%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is projected for Arncliffe, with an expected increase of 3,277 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 24.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe has seen approximately 197 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 987 homes were approved, with an additional 103 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $493,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, commercial approvals totalled $239,000, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has 190.0% more building activity per person, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. The new building activity is skewed towards medium and high-density housing (95.0%), offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition of 40.0% houses. With around 30 people per dwelling approval, Arncliffe exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Arncliffe is projected to gain approximately 3,239 residents by 2041.

Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Arncliffe has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 43 projects that may impact the area. Key projects include Arncliffe Central, Northern Georges River Submain Upgrade, and Wolli Creek and T8 Airport Line Power Supply Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Arncliffe ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Arncliffe has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 5.3%.

As of December 2025, 8,208 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's. Workforce participation in Arncliffe is 76.6%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Home workership is high at 42.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing shows strong specialisation with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 11.6% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 5.3% while labour force grew by 5.3%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, and marginal unemployment increase. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Arncliffe's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that median income in Arncliffe is $53,386 and average income is $66,101. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income for Arncliffe would be approximately $58,116 and average income would be around $71,958. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Arncliffe cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 36.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 annually. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 64th percentile nationally. Arncliffe's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Arncliffe features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Arncliffe's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 40.2% houses and 59.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe was at 24.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 41.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,319, lower than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent in Arncliffe was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Arncliffe's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,319 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households compose 70.4% of all households, including 31.5% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 7.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with Greater Sydney's average.

The educational profile of Arncliffe exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Arncliffe's residents aged 15+ have a notably higher proportion with university qualifications (40.9%) compared to Australia (30.4%) and NSW (32.2%). Bachelor degrees are the most common (27.6%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.2% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (14.0%). Educational participation is high in Arncliffe, with 33.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (8.3%), tertiary education (7.7%), and secondary education (6.7%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe has 53 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 routes, facilitating 2,375 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically residing 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to Arncliffe's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 67% of residents, while 23% use trains. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.4% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 339 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Arncliffe's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Arncliffe, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~6,909 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (impacting 5.6% of residents) and arthritis (affecting 5.1%). A significant majority, 78.4%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Arncliffe has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 11.7% (1,523 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings, mirroring those of the general population.

Arncliffe is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 51.3% of its population born overseas and 60.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Arncliffe, making up 38.8% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 21.8% of Arncliffe's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.0%), Australian (11.8%), and English (11.3%). Notably, Lebanese (11.0%) and Macedonian (4.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Arncliffe compared to regional averages, while Spanish (1.0%) is slightly higher than the regional average.

Arncliffe hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (23.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.0%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Arncliffe's population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 16.0% to 18.2%, while the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 has declined from 6.4% to 5.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Arncliffe. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 80%, adding 1,903 residents to reach a total of 4,273. Conversely, the number of residents aged 15 to 24 is expected to decrease by 292.