Arncliffe

Arncliffe lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Arncliffe's estimated population is 13,283 as of May 2026, reflecting a 10.5% increase since the 2021 Census which reported 12,023 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 13,277 residents using latest ERP data (June 2025) and validated new addresses. The population density is 4,564 persons per square kilometer, placing Arncliffe in the top 10% nationally. Growth since the Census exceeded both SA4 region (6.5%) and state averages, driven primarily by overseas migration contributing approximately 79%. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a 2022 base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a 2021 base year are utilized.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas until 2041. By 2041, Arncliffe is projected to grow by 2,948 persons, reflecting a 22.1% increase over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe has seen approximately 197 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 987 homes were approved, with a further 106 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, 1.1 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

This suggests balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is $493,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $239,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has 183.0% more building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity comprises 5.0% detached houses and 95.0% medium and high-density housing, providing affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 40.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 30 people per dwelling approval, Arncliffe exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 2,942 residents through to 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, presenting good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Arncliffe has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include Arncliffe Central, Wolli Creek, and T8 Airport Line Power Supply Upgrade, Bayou Wolli Creek, and Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Arncliffe ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Arncliffe has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.7%. As of December 2025, 8,371 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Arncliffe is higher at 76.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 42.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Arncliffe shows significant specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 11.6% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 5.7%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment could expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Arncliffe's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Arncliffe is below the national average. The median income is $53,386 and the average income stands at $66,101. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Arncliffe would be approximately $58,895 (median) and $72,923 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data indicates that incomes in Arncliffe cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 36.4% of the community (4,835 individuals), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income. Despite this, disposable income is at the 64th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Arncliffe features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Arncliffe's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 40.2% houses and 59.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe was at 24.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 41.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,319, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Arncliffe was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Arncliffe's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,319 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.4% of all households, including 31.5% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households making up 7.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Arncliffe exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Arncliffe's residents aged 15 and above exhibit higher educational attainment than national averages. Specifically, 40.9% of Arncliffe residents hold university qualifications, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%, and the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area. Among these university-qualified residents, 27.6% have bachelor degrees, 11.4% have postgraduate qualifications, and 1.9% hold graduate diplomas.

Vocational credentials are also prevalent in Arncliffe, with 25.2% of residents aged 15 and above possessing them. This includes advanced diplomas held by 11.2% of residents and certificates by 14.0%. Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.7% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe has 53 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 routes that facilitate 2,375 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, with car being the dominant mode at 67%, followed by train at 23%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 42.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 339 trips per day, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Arncliffe's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

AreaSearch's assessment indicates strong health metrics in Arncliffe. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was at approximately 53%, leading the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Mental health issues and arthritis were the most common conditions, affecting 5.6% and 5.1% of residents respectively, with 78.4% reporting no medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Arncliffe has 11.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,540 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Arncliffe is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe has a population where 51.3% were born overseas, with 60.4% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Arncliffe, comprising 38.8% of its population, which is higher than the Greater Sydney average. Islam is overrepresented in Arncliffe at 21.8%, compared to the regional average of 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups in Arncliffe are Other (22.0%), Australian (11.8%), and English (11.3%). Notably, Lebanese (11.0%) and Macedonian (4.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to their regional averages of 2.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Spanish ethnicity is also slightly overrepresented at 1.0%.

Arncliffe hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (24.1%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.9%). This 25-34 concentration is significantly higher than the national figure of 14.6%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 16.0% to 18.2% of Arncliffe's population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.0% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Arncliffe. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 76%, adding 1,843 residents to reach a total of 4,261. Conversely, both the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.