Carlton (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carlton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Carlton (NSW) SA2 population is estimated at 11,829 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,198 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,631. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 11,644 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 179 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5,798 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton (NSW) SA2 among the top 10% nationally by AreaSearch's assessment. Carlton (NSW)'s 11.3% growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (7.5%) and state averages, marking it as a significant growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 88.0%.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with Carlton (NSW) SA2 expected to expand by 1,395 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 7.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carlton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carlton has seen approximately 64 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 323 homes were approved, with an additional 18 approved in FY-26 as of now. On average, about 0.5 people have moved to Carlton for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction cost value of new properties is around $521,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen approximately $3.5 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. New developments consist of 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% attached dwellings, representing a shift from Carlton's existing housing composition, which is currently 47.0% houses. This denser development trend provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

Carlton has an estimated population growth of around 350 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carlton is expected to grow by approximately 898 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, development at 324-330 Railway Parade Carlton, and Kogarah North Urban Design Strategy Implementation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carlton demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Carlton has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.2%.

As of September 2025, 7,159 residents are employed, below Greater Sydney's 4.2% unemployment rate but similar in workforce participation at 60.0%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional services. Construction employs fewer locals than Sydney, at 6.6%.

Employment opportunities seem limited locally, as working population differs from resident population. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment grew by 4.2% while unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Comparatively, Greater Sydney had 2.1% employment growth and a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. Statewide, NSW lost 2,260 jobs between November 2024 and 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3% as of May-25. Future employment growth projections for Carlton are estimated at 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years based on national forecasts adjusted for local industry mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Carlton suburb has a median taxpayer income of $49,481 and an average income of $62,551, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Sydney having a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $53,865 (median) and $68,093 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Carlton rank modestly, between the 41st and 56th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 33.8% of locals (3,998 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 55th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.7% houses and 53.3% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton stood at 31.7%, with 29.7% of dwellings mortgaged and 38.6% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, while the median weekly rent was $450. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.7 people

Family households account for 73.1% of all households, including 35.8% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 22.5% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 37.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the NSW rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 12.0% and certificates make up 14.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.2% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 7.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 45 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 12 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 2001 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 160 meters from the nearest stop. The service frequency averages 285 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlton has excellent health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 52% (~6,114 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (5.8%) and asthma (5.0%). A significant majority, 77.5%, report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney. In Carlton, 17.1% (~2,022 people) are aged 65 and over. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 52.5% of its population born overseas and 62.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, making up 48.7% of the population. However, Hinduism is significantly overrepresented in Carlton compared to Greater Sydney, with 8.1% of the population identifying as Hindu.

The top three ancestry groups in Carlton are Chinese (18.9%), Other (18.8%), and Australian (10.8%). Some other ethnic groups also show notable divergences: Macedonian at 5.0%, Greek at 7.3%, and Serbian at 1.0%.

Carlton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Carlton is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlton has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.3% to 13.6%, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 10.5% to 9.4%. By 2041, Carlton's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 64% (390 people), reaching 1,006 from 615. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 72% of the population growth. Conversely, declines in population are projected for the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups.