Carlton (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carlton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Carlton's (NSW) population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 11,420 people. This reflects an increase of 789 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,631. AreaSearch validated this estimate using their analysis of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and new addresses discovered since the Census date. The estimated resident population used for this calculation was 11,255. This level of population results in a density ratio of 5,598 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton (NSW) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 7.4% growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (5.5%) and the state average.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 88.0% of Carlton's population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 are used, with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Carlton (NSW) is expected to increase by 1,436 persons, reflecting an 11.8% total increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carlton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carlton has seen approximately 62 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 313 homes were approved, with another 8 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 0.6 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth. The average construction cost of new properties is $503,000. In FY-26, Carlton has seen $8.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating its primarily residential nature. New building activity comprises 21.0% detached dwellings and 79.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the area's current 47.0% houses.

This reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles seeking diverse, affordable housing options. Carlton has about 439 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections estimate Carlton adding 1,348 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, benefiting buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Sydney Metro West, development at 324-330 Railway Parade Carlton, and Kogarah North Urban Design Strategy Implementation. The following list details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carlton demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Carlton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, Carlton has 7,043 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

However, construction is under-represented in Carlton with only 6.6% of its workforce compared to 8.6% in Greater Sydney. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, labour force by 2.7%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Carlton. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carlton's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Carlton had a median income among taxpayers of $49,534 and an average level of $62,635. These figures are slightly lower than national averages, which stood at $56,994 and $80,856 respectively for Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates project median income to approximately $55,780 and average income to around $70,533 as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Carlton rank modestly, between the 41st and 56th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 33.8% of Carlton's population (3,859 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader metropolitan trends showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.3% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 55th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carlton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.7% houses and 53.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had no reported houses or other dwellings at that time. Home ownership in Carlton stood at 31.7%, with mortgaged properties at 29.7% and rented dwellings at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with the Sydney metro average. The median weekly rent in Carlton was $450, unlike Sydney metro which had no reported figures for these metrics nationally. Carlton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.7 people

Family households comprise 73.1% of all households, including 35.8% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 22.5% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 37.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing both the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 14.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.7% currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.2% in primary, 7.5% in tertiary, and 7.1% pursuing secondary education. Carlton South Public School serves the local area, enrolling 538 students. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with surrounding areas offering secondary options. The low ratio of 4.7 school places per 100 residents suggests many local students attend schools outside the immediate area.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 43 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include a mix of train stations and bus stops serviced by 12 individual routes. Together, they facilitate 1,822 weekly passenger trips.

The city's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 160 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 260 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlton has excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is present in approximately 52% of Carlton's total population (~5,906 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.8% and 5.0% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 77.5%, report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney. Carlton has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 17.0% (1,941 people), with strong health outcomes broadly matching those of the general population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a culturally diverse population, with 52.5% born overseas and 62.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Carlton, comprising 48.7%. Hinduism is overrepresented at 8.1%, compared to none across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (18.9%), Other (18.8%), and Australian (10.8%). Macedonian is notably overrepresented at 5.0% in Carlton, Greek at 7.3%, and Serbian at 1.0%.

Carlton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Carlton is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, similar to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlton has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.3% to 13.6%, while the 5-14 age group has decreased from 10.5% to 9.4%. By 2041, Carlton's demographic is projected to shift notably. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 73%, reaching 1,008 people from 582. Those aged 65 and above are projected to comprise 66% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 5-14.