Kogarah Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Kogarah Bay is around 2,193, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,102 people. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2,129 residents based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 3,322 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to have an above median population growth, expanding by 457 persons and recording a gain of 17.9% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kogarah Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Kogarah Bay has seen around 7 new homes approved annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY-25. This totals an estimated 37 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, there's been an average of 1.8 new residents per year arriving per new home.

However, this figure has recently accelerated to 14.1 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $565,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, Kogarah Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 30th percentile of areas assessed, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while demand for established dwellings strengthens. Recent construction comprises 20.0% detached dwellings and 80.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 95.0% houses. This shift may suggest diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 550 people per dwelling approval, Kogarah Bay shows a developed market.

Population forecasts indicate Kogarah Bay will gain 393 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Kogarah Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely impacting the area: Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton Development, and Allen & George South Hurstville. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kogarah Bay performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kogarah Bay has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 5.8%. As of December 2025, 1,354 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 75.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A significant 49.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical sectors. Retail trade has notable concentration, at 1.2 times the regional average.

Public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 4.1% of Kogarah Bay's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, labour force by 5.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming stable population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Kogarah Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $52,825 and an average income of $66,206 in financial year 2023. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest the median income could be approximately $57,505 and the average income around $72,072. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 91st percentile with weekly earnings of $2,528, while personal income ranks at the 56th percentile. The predominant income cohort in Kogarah Bay is 28.1% (616 people) earning over $40,000 annually, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 43.4% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting high consumer spending. Housing expenses account for 14.1% of income, and residents rank in the 91st percentile for disposable income. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kogarah Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kogarah Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's structure of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay stood at 47.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.7% and rented ones at 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,963, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Kogarah Bay was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.8% of all households, including 46.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.2%, consisting of 13.7% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kogarah Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Kogarah Bay differ from regional benchmarks, with 33.0% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university degrees compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. The most common qualification is a bachelor degree at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (18.0%). Educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including secondary education (9.6%), primary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (7.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 8.3% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Kogarah Bay indicates the operation of 20 active transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by three distinct routes, collectively facilitating 451 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is deemed excellent, with residents typically situated 119 meters from their nearest transport stop. Predominantly residential, most Kogarah Bay residents commute outward, primarily using cars at a rate of 89%, while train use stands at 7%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. Notably, 49.1% of residents work from home (as per the 2021 Census), which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% of the total population (~1,164 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common conditions are arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (4.9%), with 75.1% reporting no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 21.6%, higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings for the general population.

Kogarah Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay's cultural diversity is notable, with 33.8% of its population born overseas and 47.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Kogarah Bay, comprising 71.4% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Greek (15.6%), Australian (12.7%), and English (11.7%).

These figures differ from regional averages: Greek is substantially higher (15.6% vs 1.9%), Australian notably lower (12.7% vs 17.8%), and English also notably lower (11.7% vs 19.0%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Macedonian (5.5% vs 0.4%), Lebanese (5.6% vs 2.6%), and Croatian (2.2% vs 0.7%).

Kogarah Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kogarah Bay's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 years old constitutes 15.8% of Kogarah Bay's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, those aged 25-34 make up only 9.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.7% to 15.0%, while the 75-84 cohort rose from 6.9% to 8.2%. However, the 5-14 age group decreased from 12.5% to 10.7%, and the 45-54 group fell from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kogarah Bay's age profile. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 270 people from its current figure of 179. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 60% of the population growth, while the 35-44 cohort is projected to decline by 4 people.