Kogarah Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kogarah Bay is around 2,193 people. This represents an increase of 91 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,102. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following the examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,322 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 area-specific projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to experience above median population growth, expanding by 461 persons to reach a total of 2,654 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 22.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kogarah Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Kogarah Bay has seen approximately 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 39 homes. As of FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, around 1.6 new residents per year have arrived with each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this figure has accelerated to 13.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $565,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 30th percentile of areas assessed, indicating somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. Recent construction comprises 14.0% standalone homes and 86.0% medium to high-density housing, marking a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 95.0% houses). This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse and affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 547 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kogarah Bay is projected to gain 495 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kogarah Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects expected to impact the area: Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton Development, and Allen & George South Hurstville. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kogarah Bay performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kogarah Bay has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 1,344 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kogarah Bay was 75.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses showed that 49.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Retail trade was particularly strong, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, while public administration & safety employed just 4.1% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.7%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7%, and labour force increased by 4.9%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Kogarah Bay. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kogarah Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Kogarah Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $52,825 with an average level of $66,206. This is just below the national average and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 30, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $57,505 (median) and $72,072 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank at the 91st percentile ($2,528 weekly), though personal income ranks lower at the 56th percentile. Distribution data shows the $4000+ earnings band captures 28.1% of the community (616 individuals), diverging from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners indicates strong economic capacity throughout the area. Housing accounts for 14.1% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 91st percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kogarah Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kogarah Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay stood at 47.1%, with mortgaged properties at 38.7% and rented ones at 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,963, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Kogarah Bay was $650, compared to Sydney metro's figure of $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.8% of all households, including 46.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kogarah Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Kogarah Bay trail regional benchmarks, with 33.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.7% in the SA3 area as of the latest data point. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (18.0%). Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest figures available.

This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 8.3% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 operational public transport stops in Kogarah Bay, all bus services. These stops are covered by three routes, offering a total of 451 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents usually located 119 meters from the nearest stop. In this mainly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound: cars dominate at 89%, with trains used by 7%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, above regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 49.1% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 64 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 22 weekly trips per stop.

Kogarah Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay's health outcomes show notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is held by approximately 53% of the total population (~1,164 people), slightly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (4.9%). A majority, 75.1%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.9% of the population (458 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings for the general population.

Kogarah Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.8% of its population born overseas and 47.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kogarah Bay, making up 71.4% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kogarah Bay are Greek (15.6%), Australian (12.7%), and English (11.7%).

These percentages differ from regional averages: Greek is substantially higher (15.6% vs 1.9%), while Australian and English are notably lower (12.7% vs 17.8%, and 11.7% vs 19.0%, respectively). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Macedonian (5.5% vs 0.4%), Lebanese (5.6% vs 2.6%), and Croatian (2.2% vs 0.7%).

Kogarah Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kogarah Bay has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is notably higher than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 15.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's proportion. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.9%. Post the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 13.7% to 14.8%, while the 65-74 group increased from 9.3% to 10.4%. However, the 5-14 cohort declined from 12.5% to 10.8%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kogarah Bay's age profile. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 67%, reaching 278 from 166. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 55% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 35-44 cohort is set to grow by a modest 1%.