Chart Color Schemes
This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
Find a Recent Sale
Sales Detail
Population
An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends
As of May 2026, the estimated population of Kogarah Bay is around 2,150. This reflects an increase of 48 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,102. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS's latest ERP data release from June 2025, indicating a resident population of 2,149 plus an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,257 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods.
Population projections for Kogarah Bay are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 area projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for areas not covered by the former. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Kogarah Bay is expected to experience above median population growth, expanding by 329 persons to reach a total of 2,479 by the year 2041, reflecting a gain of 15.3% over the 16-year period.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
The level of residential development activity in Kogarah Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kogarah Bay had approximately 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 37 homes. As of FY26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, benefiting buyers while construction costs average $565,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.
Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay's new dwelling approval rate per person is around two-thirds the average, placing it in the 32nd percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options and increased demand for established dwellings. Recent construction comprises 20% detached dwellings and 80% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (95% houses), possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Kogarah Bay has around 531 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. Population forecasts estimate an increase of 328 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.
Population forecasts indicate Kogarah Bay will gain 328 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Kogarah Bay
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Kogarah Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally
Four infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton Development, Allen & George South Hurstville, and 1 Willison Road Carlton. These are considered key projects with significant potential influence on the area's performance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3
The $411 million St George Hospital Stage 3 redevelopment has reached a major milestone with the completion of the 9-storey Kensington Street Building (KSB) in February 2026. This centerpiece facility centralises outpatient, ambulatory, and community services, including pathology collection, day rehabilitation, and surgical services with refurbished operating theatres. It introduces new models of care such as the Rehabilitation Cognitive Transition Unit for brain injury recovery and a Behavioural Support Unit for dementia and delirium. The project also includes 151 basement car spaces, a new public forecourt, and the demolition of the Prince William Wing, with final landscaping and refurbishment of existing clinical spaces scheduled for completion by late 2026.
Sydney Metro - Future Sydenham to Hurstville Extension
A long-term proposal to extend the Sydney Metro M1 line south from Sydenham to Hurstville by converting two of the four tracks on the existing Illawarra line to driverless metro standards. The conversion would add eight new metro stations at Tempe, Arncliffe, Banksia, Rockdale, Kogarah, Carlton, Allawah and Hurstville, covering around 9 kilometres of track and increasing peak capacity between Hurstville and the Sydney CBD by up to 10 trains per hour. First proposed in 2014 as part of the southern sector conversion envisaged in Sydney's Rail Future, the project was reported to have been dropped in 2016 due to engineering challenges including platform geometry, freight train pathing, and the need for additional tunnels and a new stabling facility. As of 2026, Transport for NSW continues to describe Hurstville as a long-term option for metro but no funding, business case or active planning is in place. Current investment on the corridor is focused on heavy rail upgrades under the Rail Service Improvement Program, including the Hurstville Crossover Project and signalling and power supply works delivered by the Next Rail partnership of John Holland and Jacobs between Central and Hurstville. A new 2026 Sydney Trains timetable is also being introduced to deliver more frequent services on the T4 Eastern Suburbs and Illawarra Line.
M6 Stage 2
M6 Stage 2 is the proposed southern extension of the M6 motorway from President Avenue at Kogarah through twin tunnels to connect with the Princes Highway near Loftus and ultimately link to the M1 Princes Motorway. The project has been indefinitely shelved since 2022 due to market conditions, labour shortages and lack of funding commitment. The corridor remains reserved but there is no active planning, approval process or construction timeline as of December 2025.
Blakehurst Marina & Waterfront Residential Precinct
A rare waterfront development opportunity on Shipwrights Bay comprising multiple land parcels totalling 2,649 sqm with over 80 metres of water frontage. The site includes an operating leasehold marina with approximately 50 berths, dual slipways, dry dock, restaurant space and boat servicing infrastructure. Zoned R4 High Density Residential with a 2:1 FSR and 21-metre height allowance (STCA), with potential gross floor area exceeding 5,300 sqm. The site was offered to the market via Expressions of Interest closing October 2025, with the expectation of a future developer delivering waterfront residential apartments alongside retained marina berths.
M6 Motorway Stage 1
The M6 Stage 1 delivers a four-kilometre twin tunnel connecting the M8 at Arncliffe to President Avenue, Kogarah. The project bypasses 23 traffic lights, reduces truck traffic by 2,000 vehicles daily, and includes significant surface upgrades such as new pedestrian and cyclist pathways and revitalised parklands at Ador Park and McCarthy Reserve. As of early 2026, surface works are in the final finishing stages while tunnelling remains the primary focus following previous geological challenges.
Georges River Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy
The Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy, implemented by the NSW Government, facilitates low and mid-rise housing developments in the Georges River LGA to increase housing diversity and supply. It permits dual occupancies, terraces, townhouses, and apartments within 800m of selected transport hubs and town centres, aiming to deliver approximately 6,300 new homes by 2029 while maintaining neighborhood character.
Allen & George South Hurstville
Boutique development at 1 Allen Street by BRDB with stu+FF studio architects. Features 57 contemporary apartments (1, 2 & 3 bedroom) with oversized floorplans, landscaped communal courtyard, and modern finishes in peaceful South Hurstville community.
Serenity Gardens Rockdale
Mixed-use residential development comprising 61 residential units including affordable housing, commercial spaces, and basement parking, valued at $51.26 million, contributing to residential growth in the Rockdale area.
Employment
AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kogarah Bay performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia
Kogarah Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of December 2025, 1,245 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.
Workforce participation was at 68.8%, similar to Greater Sydney. According to Census responses, 49.1% of residents worked from home in Kogarah Bay. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Retail trade has a notably high concentration, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.
Public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 4.1% of Kogarah Bay's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force increased by 3.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch
The suburb of Kogarah Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $52,825 and an average income of $66,206 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 respectively during the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $58,277 (median) and $73,038 (average). Census data shows household incomes rank at the 91st percentile with $2,528 weekly income, while personal income ranks at the 56th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 28.1% of locals (604 people) fall into the $4000+ category, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 43.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.1% of income, and residents rank within the 91st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Kogarah Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Kogarah Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 95.1% houses and 4.9% other types (semi-detached, apartments, others). Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay was 47.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.7% and rented ones at 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,963, higher than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kogarah Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Kogarah Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households account for 84.8% of all households, consisting of 46.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households making up 2.0% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Kogarah Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators
Educational qualifications in Kogarah Bay trail regional benchmarks; 33.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 38.7% in the SA3 area as of 2021 data. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (18.0%).
Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 8.3% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Transport analysis shows 20 active stops in Kogarah Bay, operated by buses. These are served by three routes offering 451 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated excellent with residents typically 119 meters from the nearest stop. In this residential area, most commute outward using cars (89%) and trains (7%). Average vehicle ownership is 1.8 per dwelling, above regional average. In 2021 Census data, possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions, 49.1% of residents work from home.
Service frequency averages 64 trips daily across all routes, approximately 22 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Kogarah Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups
Kogarah Bay's health outcomes show notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.
Approximately 53% of Kogarah Bay's total population (~1,142 people) have private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.3% and 4.9% of residents respectively. A total of 75.1% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Kogarah Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.2% (455 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in the area are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Kogarah Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics
Kogarah Bay's population has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.8% born overseas and 47.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kogarah Bay, comprising 71.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestry groups are Greek (15.6%), Australian (12.7%), and English (11.7%).
Greeks are significantly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.9%. Australians and English are underrepresented, with regional averages being 17.8% and 19.0%, respectively. Other ethnic groups notably diverging from regional averages include Macedonian at 5.5% (regional: 0.4%), Lebanese at 5.6% (regional: 2.6%), and Croatian at 2.2% (regional: 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Kogarah Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average
Kogarah Bay has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 55-64 is strongly represented in Kogarah Bay at 15.4%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 9.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 65 to 74 has grown from 9.3% to 10.4%. Conversely, the age group of 5 to 14 has declined from 12.5% to 10.7%, and the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 15.3% to 14.1%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kogarah Bay's age profile by 2041. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 60%, reaching 255 people from 159. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 66% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.