Kogarah Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Kogarah Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,191, reflecting an increase of 89 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 4.2% rise from the previous population count of 2,102. The current resident population estimate of 2,129 by AreaSearch, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of 3,319 persons per square kilometer. This places Kogarah Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Kogarah Bay (SA2) is projected to experience above median population growth, expanding by 498 persons to reach a total of 2,689 by 2041. This reflects an overall gain of 23.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kogarah Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Kogarah Bay has seen around 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 39 homes. So far in FY-26 (Financial Year 2026), 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 1.6 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions.

However, this figure has accelerated to 13.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $565,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kogarah Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 30th percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while demand for established dwellings strengthens. Recent construction comprises 14.0% standalone homes and 86.0% medium to high-density housing, providing accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 95.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 547 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kogarah Bay is forecasted to gain 523 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kogarah Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting the area: Sydney Metro West, St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton Development, and Allen & George South Hurstville. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kogarah Bay performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kogarah Bay has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% in the year ending September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth was estimated at 4.6% over that period. As of September 2025, 1,354 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, similar to Greater Sydney's workforce participation rate of 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Retail trade particularly shows strong specialization, employing 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, public administration & safety employs only 4.1% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force grew by 4.9%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% between November 2024 and November 2025, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023, Kogarah Bay had a median taxpayer income of $52,825 and an average income of $66,206. Nationally, the median was $60,817 and the average was $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,505 (median) and $72,072 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, household incomes ranked at the 91st percentile ($2,528 weekly), while personal incomes ranked at the 56th percentile. The $4000+ earnings band captured 28.1% of Kogarah Bay's community (615 individuals). Notably, 43.4% earned above $3,000/week, indicating strong economic capacity. Housing expenses accounted for 14.1% of income. Residents ranked in the 91st percentile for disposable income, and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

Kogarah Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kogarah Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay stood at 47.1%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 38.7% and rented ones 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,963, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Kogarah Bay was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Kogarah Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.8% of all households, including 46.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households making up 2.0% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Kogarah Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Kogarah Bay differ from regional benchmarks; 33.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 10.4% and certificates for 18.0%. Educational participation is high at 29.1%, including secondary education (9.6%), primary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (7.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 8.3% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Kogarah Bay shows that there are currently 20 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 451 weekly passenger trips provided by the combined services. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 119 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 64 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all ages.

Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~1,163 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3% and 4.9% of residents respectively. A significant majority (75.1%) report no medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. Kogarah Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.2% (442 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong and largely align with the general population's health profile.

Kogarah Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.8% of its population born overseas and 47.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Kogarah Bay is Christianity, accounting for 71.4% of the population, compared to 51.8% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kogarah Bay are Greek (15.6%), Australian (12.7%), and English (11.7%).

Notably, Macedonian (5.5%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 3.8%. Similarly, Lebanese (5.6%) and Croatian (2.2%) groups have higher representation in Kogarah Bay than their respective regional averages of 5.2% and 0.9%.

Kogarah Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kogarah Bay's median age is 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 years old makes up 15.4% of Kogarah Bay's population, compared to Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group constitutes only 10.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 13.7% to 14.8%, while those aged 5-14 have decreased from 12.5% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Kogarah Bay's age profile. Notably, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 75 people, reaching 284 from its current level of 162. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 57% of projected growth. Conversely, the 35-44 age group is predicted to decrease by 1 person.