Kogarah Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kogarah Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Kogarah Bay's population is estimated at around 2,298. This reflects an increase of 196 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,102. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,231 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024, along with an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,481 persons per square kilometer, placing Kogarah Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kogarah Bay's growth rate of 9.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (5.5%) and the state level, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Kogarah Bay is expected to expand by 448 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 15.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kogarah Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kogarah Bay has seen around 10 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 54 homes from FY21 to FY25. So far in FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25. However, this figure has increased to 22 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting rising demand and tightening supply.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $565,000. In terms of commercial development, $1.7 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating limited activity. Kogarah Bay maintains similar construction rates per person compared to Greater Sydney, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. Recent construction comprises 10.0% detached dwellings and 90.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 95.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 875 people per dwelling approval, Kogarah Bay reflects a mature market. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 366 residents by 2041, with current development rates expected to comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Kogarah Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects expected to influence the region: St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage 3, Sydney Metro West, M6 Motorway Stage 1, and the development at 19-23 Bembridge Street Carlton. The following details projects likely to have the most relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kogarah Bay performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kogarah Bay has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 1.9% in June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.8%. Of the residents in work, 1,322, employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Retail trade stands out with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. However, public administration & safety has lower representation at 4.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 5.7%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, labour force by 3.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kogarah Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Kogarah Bay's median income among taxpayers was $52,825 in financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $66,206 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kogarah Bay's median income are approximately $59,486, and the average is estimated to be around $74,555 as of September 2025. Census data shows that household incomes rank at the 91st percentile with a weekly income of $2,528, while personal income ranks lower at the 56th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 28.1% of locals (645 people) fall into the $4000+ category, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 category dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 43.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.1% of income. Strong earnings place residents within the 91st percentile for disposable income, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kogarah Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kogarah Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings. Sydney metro had 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kogarah Bay was 47.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.7% and rented ones at 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,963, higher than Sydney metro's $2,383. Median weekly rent in Kogarah Bay was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Kogarah Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kogarah Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.8% of all households, including 46.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

Kogarah Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Kogarah Bay show that 33.0% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to the SA3 area's 38.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 28.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.4% and certificates at 18.0%. Current educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents enrolled in formal education: 9.6% in secondary, 8.3% in primary, and 7.1% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities may be located outside Kogarah Bay's immediate boundaries, necessitating access to schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating within Kogarah Bay. These stops are served by a mix of buses on three different routes, collectively providing 438 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 62 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kogarah Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kogarah Bay shows excellent health outcomes across all ages, with a low prevalence of common conditions.

Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~1,220 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (4.9%), while 75.1% report no medical ailments, compared to 77.5% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 20.4% of the population (468 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Seniors' health outcomes align with those of the general population.

Kogarah Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kogarah Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.8% of its population born overseas and 47.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kogarah Bay, with 71.4% of people identifying as Christian, compared to 51.8% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kogarah Bay are Greek (15.6%), Australian (12.7%), and English (11.7%).

Notably, Macedonian (5.5%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 3.8%, as are Lebanese (5.6% vs 5.2%) and Croatian (2.2% vs 0.9%).

Kogarah Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kogarah Bay has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 15.4% of Kogarah Bay's population, compared to Greater Sydney's figure. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.7% to 14.8%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 11.0%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kogarah Bay's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 61%, adding 105 people, reaching 278 from an initial 172. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 68% of the population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.