Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley
Statistical Area - sa2

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's population is approximately 18,165 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 1,586 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 16,579. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density is around 4,214 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% nationally. Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's growth of 9.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (5.5%) and the state average. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, an above median growth is projected for the area, with an expected increase of 4,447 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 22.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has seen around 201 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 1007 homes. So far in FY-26124 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been added between FY-21 and FY-25.

The market shows good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions with an average construction cost value of $394000 per dwelling. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley records 113% more building activity per person, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity comprises 6% standalone homes and 94% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns of 44% houses. With around 229 people per dwelling approval, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley shows a developing market with projections indicating an addition of 4156 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley adding 4,156 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 52 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Arncliffe Estate Redevelopment, Arncliffe Central, Arncliffe Park Upgrade, and Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 3.1% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of June 2025, 10,935 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 1.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 57.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

The area has particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 11.3% of Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's workforce compared to 14.1% in Greater Sydney. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley has a median taxpayer income of $52,956 and an average income of $65,525 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is comparable with national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,634 (median) and $73,788 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley are around the 64th percentile nationally. The data shows that 35.7% of individuals (6,484 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% fall within this range. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 43.8% houses and 56.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 40% houses and 60% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley was at 27.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Sydney metro's $2,383. Median weekly rent in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.9% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.1%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 6.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally. University qualification rates exceed the Australian average of 30.4% and that of NSW at 32.2%. Specifically, 39.7% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications.

Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 14.2%. Educational participation is high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education. Six schools operate within Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley, educating approximately 1,998 students. The area's socio-educational conditions are above average, with an ICSEA score of 1058. The educational mix includes four primary schools and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has 49 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, providing a total of 4,332 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 176 meters.

Service frequency averages 618 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 88 weekly trips per stop.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley, with younger cohorts having a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 52% of the total population (~9,518 people), leading that of the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 5.4% and 5.3% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 78.3%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.4% (2,257 people) than the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 49.3% of its population born overseas and 58.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.0% of people in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley. However, Islam is notably overrepresented at 21.6%, which is substantially higher than Greater Sydney's average of 10.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (12.4%), and English (12.0%). Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley at 11.6% compared to the regional average of 5.2%, Macedonian at 4.5% versus 3.8%, and Spanish at 0.9%.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 15.6% to 17.4%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.2% to 10.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 84%, adding 2,669 residents and reaching a total of 5,836. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25-34 and 15-24 age groups.