Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley
Statistical Area - sa2

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Aug 2025, Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's population is approximately 18,154. This figure represents an increase of 1,575 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,579. The change was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 17,874 in June 2024 and an additional 130 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,212 persons per square kilometer, placing Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 9.5% since the 2021 census surpassed both the SA4 region (5.3%) and the state level, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 78.3% of overall population gains during recent periods in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley is projected to grow by 4,447 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 22.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has seen approximately 131 new homes approved each year. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 657 approvals over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, with 46 recorded so far in FY26. On average, around 1.2 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years.

This indicates balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $501,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has shown a 121.0% higher rate of new home approvals per person, offering more housing choices for buyers. This high level of activity suggests strong developer interest in the area. Recent construction consists of 6.0% standalone homes and 94.0% townhouses or apartments, favouring compact living options that provide affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a shift from the existing housing composition, which is currently 44.0% houses. The area has approximately 229 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for population growth.

Population forecasts indicate Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley will gain around 4,167 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially allowing for population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 56 projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Arncliffe Estate Redevelopment, Arncliffe Central, Arncliffe Park Upgrade, and Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% in June 2025, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%, and employment grew by 2.2% over the previous year.

Residents work predominantly in health care & social assistance (11.3%), professional & technical services, and retail trade. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a strong presence, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, local employment opportunities seem limited as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2% and labour force by 2.6%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points.

Comparatively, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, favourable to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts for Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley suggest a growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's median income among taxpayers was $52,956 and average income was $65,525 in financial year 2022. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 respectively. Based on a 10.6% increase since financial year 2022, current estimates for Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley would be approximately $58,569 (median) and $72,471 (average) as of March 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets show that 35.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with metropolitan trends of 30.9%. Housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's latest Census showed 43.8% houses and 56.2% other dwellings, compared to Sydney metro's 39.8% houses and 60.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley was 27.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, above Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent was $500, higher than Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 71.9% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.1%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 6.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 39.7%, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 25.5% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (14.2%).

Educational participation is high at 33.1%, with 8.5% in primary, 7.5% in tertiary, and 6.7% in secondary education. Six schools educate approximately 1,998 students in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1058) and includes four primary and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has 49 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 11 routes that together facilitate 4,332 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 176 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 618 trips per day, equating to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley shows excellent health outcomes, notably among younger age groups who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has private health cover at approximately 52%, which is higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 5.4% and 5.3% of residents respectively. Overall, 78.3% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 77.5%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.4% (2,256 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require particular attention due to their stronger showing.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has a high cultural diversity, with 49.3% of its population born overseas and 58.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley, making up 40.0% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 21.6% versus 10.3%.

The top three parental ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (12.4%), and English (12.0%). Notably, Lebanese (11.6%) and Macedonian (4.5%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). This proportion of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population of those aged 35 to 44 has grown from 15.6% to 17.4%, while the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 11.2% to 10.3%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley. The population of those aged 35 to 44 is projected to grow by 84%, adding 2,671 residents to reach a total of 5,836. Conversely, populations in the 25-34 and 15-24 age cohorts are forecasted to decline.