Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's population was 18,165 as of November 2025, showing a growth of 1,586 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 9.6% rise from the previous population count of 16,579. The change is inferred from ABS data indicating an estimated resident population of 17,874 in June 2024 and an additional 134 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,214 persons per square kilometer, placing Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley among the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate exceeded both its SA4 region (5.5%) and the state level since the 2021 Census, demonstrating its status as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.3% to the overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley is projected to grow by 4,447 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 22.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has seen approximately 201 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1,007 homes. As of FY-26125 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY-21 and FY-25.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions with an average construction cost value of $394,000 per dwelling. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has seen 113.0% more building activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. This high level of developer interest is significantly above the national average. New building activity consists of 6.0% standalone homes and 94.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 44.0% houses), likely due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 229 people per dwelling approval, the area shows a developing market. Future projections estimate Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley will add approximately 4,156 residents by 2041, with current development patterns suggesting new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley adding 4,156 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area is greatly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified a total of 52 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Arncliffe Estate Redevelopment, Arncliffe Central, Bayside West Precincts 2036 Plan, and Ice Zoo Wolli Creek. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of September 2025, which is 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.8%. There are 11,050 residents in work with workforce participation at 57.2%, somewhat below Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 11.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 14.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley SA2 was $52,956 and the average was $65,525 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is comparable with national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,634 (median) and $73,788 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley cluster around the 63rd percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 35.7% of the community's individuals (6,484), similar to regional levels where 30.9% fall within this range. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 43.8% houses and 56.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 40% houses and 60% other dwellings. Home ownership in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley stood at 27.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, above Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent in the area was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 71.9% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for 28.1%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households making up 6.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 39.7% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and NSW's rate of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 25.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.3% and certificates for 14.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has 49 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 11 individual routes that facilitate 4,332 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 176 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 618 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data for Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley shows excellent results, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has approximately 52% private health cover, which is higher than the average SA2 area (~9,518 people). Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 5.4% and 5.3% of residents respectively. About 78.3% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.4%, or 2,257 people, compared to the 16.4% in Greater Sydney. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 49.3% of its population born overseas and 58.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley, making up 40.0% of the population. Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, with 21.6% of Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's population identifying as Muslim.

The top three ancestral groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (12.4%), and English (12.0%). Notably, Lebanese people are overrepresented at 11.6%, compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Macedonian ancestry is also slightly overrepresented at 4.5% versus 3.8%, while Spanish ancestry remains proportionate at 0.9%.

Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.5%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 15.6% to 17.4%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.2% to 10.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Arncliffe-Bardwell Valley. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 84%, adding 2,669 residents and reaching a total of 5,836. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.