Pagewood

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pagewood reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since Feb 2026, Pagewood's estimated population is around 4,087. This reflects an increase of 202 people (5.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,885 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 3,968 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,857 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pagewood has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median growth is projected for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The suburb of Pagewood is expected to increase by 822 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 22.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pagewood among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pagewood averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 350 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 1.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $588,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties.

In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $2.9 million, reflecting limited commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Pagewood has 103.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and indicating strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 3.0% detached dwellings and 97.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 75.0% houses) suggests decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Pagewood has around 59 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Pagewood will grow by approximately 924 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, supporting good conditions for buyers and potentially exceeding current population projections.

Looking ahead, Pagewood is expected to grow by 924 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pagewood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could influence this area. Notable projects include Iglu Kingsford, Meriton Pagewood Green, Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment, and Westfield Eastgardens Redevelopment. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pagewood has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pagewood has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 4.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 1,935 residents employed and the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Pagewood is lower at 63.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses show that 42.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Pagewood has a strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while manufacturing's presence is limited at 3.6% compared to the regional average of 5.7%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.4% and employment declined by 1.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable in Pagewood. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force expansion of 2.4%, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pagewood's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Pagewood's median income among taxpayers is $56,102. The average income in the suburb is $82,651. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pagewood would be approximately $61,073 (median) and $89,974 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Pagewood rank at the 82nd percentile ($2,281 weekly). The earnings profile shows that 27.0% of residents (1,103 people) fall into the $4,000+ bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Economic strength is evident with 40.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 80th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pagewood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Pagewood, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.4% houses and 24.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Pagewood was 39.3%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (34.5%) or rented (26.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Pagewood's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pagewood has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 19.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households making up 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Pagewood exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 55.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 18.3%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (10.6%), primary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (6.1%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pagewood has 26 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 17 different routes, collectively handling 4,140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 169 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 84%, with buses accounting for 6% and walking 4%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.4, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 591 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 159 weekly trips per stop.

Pagewood's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Pagewood based on AreaSearch's assessment as of June 2021.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population, which numbered 2,433 people. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.3 and 6.1% of residents respectively. A total of 74.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. As of June 2021, the area had 19.4% of residents aged 65 and over, numbering 792 people, which was higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Pagewood was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pagewood has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population born overseas and 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Pagewood is Christianity, comprising 65.0% of the population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented in Pagewood at 5.2%, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (18.2%), English (16.0%), and Other (14.7%). Notably, Greek, Spanish, and Russian ethnicities are also overrepresented in Pagewood at 9.5%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively, compared to their regional percentages of 1.9%, 0.6%, and 0.4%.

Pagewood's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Pagewood is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 13.7% of the population in Pagewood, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 25-34 age group makes up only 7.7% of Pagewood's population. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.4% of the population, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 8.5% to 7.7%. By 2041, Pagewood's population is forecasted to experience substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 584 people from the current 343. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 53% of total population growth, reflecting Pagewood's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 35 to 44 and 25 to 34 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.