Pagewood

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pagewood reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Pagewood's population is estimated at around 4,112, reflecting an increase of 227 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Pagewood by AreaSearch in Jun 2024 indicated a resident population of 4,091, with an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a density ratio of 1,869 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pagewood has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall gains during recent periods, although natural growth and interstate migration also played positive roles. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Pagewood is projected to increase by 809 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 21.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pagewood among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pagewood averaged approximately 107 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 539 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 1.2 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $588,000.

This financial year, there have been $3.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus. Relative to Greater Sydney, Pagewood records 210.0% more building activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite recent slowing trends. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 2.0% detached dwellings and 98.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 75.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 58 people per dwelling approval, Pagewood shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pagewood is expected to grow by 894 residents through to 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pagewood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Iglu Kingsford, Meriton Pagewood Green, Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment, and Westfield Eastgardens Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Pagewood has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pagewood has a well-educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 4.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7%.

As of June 2025, 2,023 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Notably, education & training has a concentration 1.4 times the regional average.

Manufacturing, however, is under-represented with only 3.6% of Pagewood's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, while labour force grew by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pagewood's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Pagewood had a median taxpayer income of $56,102 and an average income of $82,651. Nationally, these figures are high, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. With a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $63,176 (median) and $93,073 (average). Census 2021 data ranks Pagewood's household incomes at the 82nd percentile ($2,281 weekly). Income distribution shows 27.0% of locals earn over $4,000 weekly, differing from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Affluence is evident with 40.6% earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and services. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 80th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pagewood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pagewood, as per the latest Census evaluation, 75.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had 26.0% houses and 74.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pagewood stood at 39.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,600. Median weekly rent in Pagewood was $460, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Pagewood's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pagewood has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 19.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Pagewood exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 55.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (18.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in secondary education, 9.2% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education. Pagewood Public School serves the local educational needs within Pagewood, with an enrollment of 251 students as of the latest data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 21 active transport stops in Pagewood, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 16 distinct routes, facilitating a total of 3,188 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average situated 169 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 151 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pagewood's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Pagewood. Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover rate is notably high at approximately 60% of the total population (2,448 people), compared to 57.5% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3 and 6.1% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 74.4%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 78.7% in Greater Sydney. Pagewood has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.1% (785 people), compared to 12.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's health profile.

Pagewood is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pagewood has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population born overseas and 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Pagewood, accounting for 65.0% of people. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 5.2% versus 1.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (18.2%), English (16.0%), and Other (14.7%). Notably, Greek ethnicity is higher in Pagewood at 9.5%, compared to the regional average of 4.2%. Spanish ethnicity is slightly lower at 1.0% versus 1.2%, while Russian ethnicity is also slightly lower at 0.8% versus 0.9%.

Pagewood hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Pagewood is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.2% of the population in Pagewood, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age group makes up 8.3%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.2% of Pagewood's population. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Pagewood. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 76%, adding 257 people, reaching a total of 595 from the current figure of 337. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of Pagewood's total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 35-44 and 0-4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.