Pagewood

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pagewood reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Pagewood's estimated population is around 4,087. This reflects an increase of 202 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,885. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,968 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,857 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pagewood has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%, outpacing its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is anticipated for the area, expecting an increase of 804 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 22.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pagewood among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pagewood averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 350 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 1.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built, suggesting balanced supply and demand dynamics. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $588,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

In FY26, $2.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, showing limited commercial development activity compared to residential. Relative to Greater Sydney, Pagewood has 103.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 3.0% detached dwellings and 97.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend marks a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 75.0% houses, indicating decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Pagewood has around 59 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating characteristics of a low density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Pagewood will grow by approximately 914 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Pagewood is expected to grow by 914 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pagewood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Iglu Kingsford, Meriton Pagewood Green, Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment, and Westfield Eastgardens Redevelopment. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pagewood has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pagewood has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 4.9%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 1,947 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with a notable specialization in education & training (1.4 times the regional level). Manufacturing has limited presence with 3.6% employment compared to the regional average of 5.7%.

Over the year ending September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.1%, and employment declined by 1.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts suggest overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Pagewood's current employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Pagewood's median income among taxpayers is $56,102. The average income in the suburb is $82,651. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $61,073 and the average around $89,974 by September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, Pagewood's household incomes rank at the 82nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,281. The earnings profile indicates that 27.0% of residents (1,103 people) fall into the $4000+ bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.9% earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. Economic strength is evident with 40.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 80th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pagewood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pagewood, as per the latest Census evaluation, 75.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types of dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 26.0% houses and 74.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pagewood stood at 39.3%, higher than Sydney metro's level. The rest of the dwellings were either mortgaged (34.5%) or rented (26.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Pagewood was $3,250, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,600. The median weekly rent figure in Pagewood was $460, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Pagewood's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pagewood has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.8% of all households, including couples with children (42.6%), couples without children (19.9%), and single parent families (11.8%). Non-family households make up the remaining 24.2%, consisting of lone person households (22.0%) and group households (2.1%). The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Pagewood exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 55.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (18.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.6% in secondary education, 9.2% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 26 active transport stops operating in Pagewood, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 17 individual routes, collectively offering 4,140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 169 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 591 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 159 weekly trips per stop.

Pagewood's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Pagewood had strong health metrics across age groups.

Both young and elderly cohorts had low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover was high at approximately 60% (2,433 people). Common medical conditions were arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (6.1%). Seventy-four point four percent declared no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 78.7%. Nineteen point one percent of residents were aged 65 and over (780 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 12.6%. Seniors' health outcomes were strong, aligning with the general population's profile.

Pagewood was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pagewood has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population born overseas and 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pagewood, making up 65.0% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 5.2% of Pagewood's population versus the regional average of 1.9%.

The top three ancestral groups in Pagewood are Australian at 18.2%, English at 16.0%, and Other at 14.7%. Notably, Greeks are overrepresented at 9.5% compared to the regional average of 4.2%, while Spanish and Russian speakers have slightly lower representation than the region at 1.0% and 0.8% respectively.

Pagewood's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Pagewood is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.2% of the population in Pagewood, compared to a lower percentage for the 25-34 cohort at 8.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.2%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 13.1% to 12.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Pagewood. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 78% (adding 259 people), reaching a total of 595 from the current 335. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting Pagewood's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.