Pagewood

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pagewood reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, the suburb of Pagewood's population is estimated at around 4,087. This reflects an increase of 202 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,885 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,968, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,857 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pagewood's growth rate of 5.2% since census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected for the suburb, with an expected increase of 808 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pagewood among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Pagewood averaged around 63 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 317 homes. So far in FY-26, one approval has been recorded. With an average of two people moving to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, supply and demand seem well-matched, fostering stable market dynamics. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $588,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This year, $2.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Relative to Greater Sydney, Pagewood shows 81.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 3.0% detached dwellings and 97.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, and indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. With around 73 people per dwelling approval, Pagewood shows characteristics of a low density area. Looking ahead, Pagewood is expected to grow by 689 residents through to 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Pagewood is expected to grow by 689 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pagewood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Iglu Kingsford, Meriton Pagewood Green, Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment, and Westfield Eastgardens Redevelopment, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pagewood has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pagewood's workforce is well-educated with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate, as of December 2025, was 4.9%, based on AreaSearch data aggregation. There were 1,939 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 0.7% higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation lagged at 62.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census responses showed that 42.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors were health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training had a high specialization with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Manufacturing's presence was limited at 3.6% compared to the regional 5.7%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.4%, while employment declined by 0.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force expansion of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pagewood's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Pagewood's median income among taxpayers is $56,102. The average income in the suburb is $82,651. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pagewood would be approximately $61,073 (median) and $89,974 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Pagewood rank exceptionally at the 82nd percentile ($2,281 weekly). The earnings profile shows that 27.0% of residents fall within the $4,000+ bracket (1,103 people), unlike trends in the region where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Economic strength is evident through 40.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 80th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pagewood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pagewood, as per the latest Census evaluation, 75.4% of dwellings were houses while 24.6% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in Pagewood stood at 39.3%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 34.5% and rented dwellings making up 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Pagewood was recorded at $460 compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Pagewood's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pagewood has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 19.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Pagewood exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 55.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.1% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (18.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.6% in secondary, 9.2% in primary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in secondary education, 9.2% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 26 active transport stops operating in Pagewood, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 17 individual routes, collectively offering 4,140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 169 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 84%, followed by bus at 6% and walking at 4%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling, above the regional average.

A high proportion of residents work from home, with 42.4% reported in the 2021 Census, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 591 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 159 weekly trips per stop.

Pagewood's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Pagewood.

Based on AreaSearch's assessment, mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. Common health conditions had a low prevalence, with arthritis impacting 7.3% and asthma 6.1% of residents. Approximately 60% (2,433 people) had private health cover, which was exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney. Most residents, 74.4%, declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area had 19.3% (788 people) of residents aged 65 and over, higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Pagewood was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pagewood has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population born overseas and 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Pagewood is Christianity, accounting for 65.0% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Pagewood compared to Greater Sydney, making up 5.2% versus 0.8%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (18.2%), English (16.0%), and Other (14.7%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Greeks comprise 9.5% of Pagewood's population compared to 1.9% regionally, Spanish make up 1.0% versus 0.6%, and Russians account for 0.8% versus 0.4%.

Pagewood's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Pagewood is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 13.8% of Pagewood's population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.2%, and the 5-14 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 12.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Pagewood. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 64%, reaching 548 people from the current 335. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are predicted to experience population declines.