Pagewood

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pagewood reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Pagewood as of May 2026 is around 3,655. This reflects a decrease of 230 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,885. The change was inferred from the resident population of 3,655 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional five validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,661 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 65% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected, with Pagewood expected to increase by 740 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 20.2% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Pagewood when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pagewood averaged around 63 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 317 homes. As of FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. Over these five years, on average, 0.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in Pagewood is $588,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties by developers. In FY26, $2.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to Greater Sydney, Pagewood exhibits 89.0% higher building activity per person, demonstrating strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 3.0% detached dwellings and 97.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift is notable given the area's existing housing composition of 75.0% houses. Pagewood has a population density of around 70 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pagewood is expected to grow by 740 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pagewood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Iglu Kingsford, Meriton Pagewood Green, Botany Aquatic Centre Redevelopment, and Westfield Eastgardens Redevelopment. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pagewood has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pagewood has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 4.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,573 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 4.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Pagewood lags behind Greater Sydney at 54.8%, compared to 68.8%. Census responses show that a high proportion of residents, 42.4%, work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.4 times higher than the regional level.

Conversely, manufacturing has limited presence with only 3.6% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.7%. The ratio of Census working population to resident population suggests limited local employment opportunities. Over the year ending December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.3%, while employment declined by 5.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment grew by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pagewood's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not consider local population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Pagewood's median income among taxpayers is $56,102. The average income in this suburb is $82,651. Nationally, these figures are extremely high. Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 with an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pagewood would be approximately $61,892 (median) and $91,181 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Pagewood rank at the 82nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,281. The earnings profile shows that 27.0% of residents earn over $4,000 per week (986 people). This is unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Economic strength is evident with 40.6% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 80th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pagewood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Pagewood, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.4% houses and 24.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Sydney metropolitan areas which had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pagewood was at 39.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented dwellings at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, higher than Sydney metropolitan areas' average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Pagewood was recorded as $460, slightly above Sydney's average of $470. Nationally, Pagewood's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pagewood has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 19.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Pagewood exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 55.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 18.3%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (10.6%), primary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (6.1%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pagewood has 26 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes, together providing 4,140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically living 169 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to Pagewood's residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 84%, followed by buses at 6% and walking at 4%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.4% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 591 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 159 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pagewood's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Pagewood.

AreaSearch's assessment found low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (2,176 people). The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.3 and 6.1% of residents respectively. 74.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. Pagewood has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (712 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Pagewood was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pagewood has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population born overseas and 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pagewood, accounting for 65.0% of the population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented in Pagewood compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 5.2% versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestral groups based on country of birth of parents are Australian (18.2%), English (16.0%), and Other (14.7%). Notably, Greek (9.5%) is overrepresented in Pagewood compared to the regional average of 1.9%, Spanish (1.0% vs 0.6%), and Russian (0.8% vs 0.4%) are also more prevalent than their respective regional averages.

Pagewood's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Pagewood is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 13.6% of the population in Pagewood, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 8.0%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.4% of the population. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Pagewood, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 67%, reaching 514 people from 307. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.