Kensington (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kensington reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By Nov 2025, the population of the Kensington (NSW) statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 14,467 people. This reflects an increase of 2,540 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,927 people in the area. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 14,453 as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validation of six new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio in Kensington (NSW) is 5,418 persons per square kilometer, placing it within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. This high density makes land in the area a highly-sought resource. Kensington's population growth since the 2021 Census has been significant, with a 21.3% increase compared to the SA4 region's 7.2% and the state's growth rate.

The primary driver of this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 96.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering these projections, a significant population increase is forecast for Kensington (NSW) (SA2). By 2041, the area is expected to have increased by 4,452 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 30.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kensington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Kensington recorded around 37 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 188 homes. As of April 2026, 0 approvals have been recorded in this financial year. During this period, Kensington experienced population decline, suggesting that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes being built is $878,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In the current financial year ending June 2026, $44.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kensington shows moderately higher construction activity, at 12.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period from July 2017 to June 2022. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, this level is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent construction comprises 9.0% detached houses and 91.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. Kensington reflects a developing area with around 167 people per approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Kensington is forecasted to gain 4,433 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kensington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 57 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Meriton's Green Square Epsom Road Development, The Kensington by TOGA, Anson Group's Anzac Parade Residential Development, and UNSW's G25 Education Building. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Kensington ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Kensington has a highly educated workforce. Its technology sector is notably well-represented.

The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.8%, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In September 2025, 8,884 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Kensington has a particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Manufacturing employs just 2.6% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.7%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8% and labour force grew by 3.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, labour force grow by 2.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-Nov-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kensington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Kensington had a median income among taxpayers of $57,367 and an average income of $87,838. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,450 (median) and $95,620 (average). From the 2021 Census, Kensington's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. In Kensington, 31.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. A substantial proportion, 33.1%, earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating strong economic capacity. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kensington features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Kensington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 21.1% houses and 78.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 26.9% houses and 73.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kensington was at 24.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (18.9%) or rented (56.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kensington was $2,760, below Sydney metro's average of $3,033. Median weekly rent in Kensington was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Kensington's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kensington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, consisting of 23.2% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households making up 9.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.4.

Kensington shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Kensington has a notably high level of educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above, with 50.8% holding university qualifications. This figure is significantly higher than the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. The area's educational advantage is evident in its distribution of qualifications: bachelor degrees are the most common at 32.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational pathways account for 19.8% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas making up 9.6% and certificates 10.2%.

Educational participation is also high in Kensington, with 39.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 21.8% in tertiary education, 6.3% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kensington has 52 active public transport stops, serving a mix of lightrail and bus services. These stops are covered by 30 different routes, offering 13,075 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 119 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 1,867 daily trips across all routes, equating to around 251 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kensington's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Kensington. The prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 62% of Kensington's total population (8,908 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.1%.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.9% and 6.1% of residents respectively. 77.1% of Kensington residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 76.0%. Kensington has 10.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,562 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Kensington are strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Kensington is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kensington has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.6% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Kensington, making up 44.0% of people there. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 3.5% of Kensington's population versus 4.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 16.4%, English at 16.0%, and Australian at 14.5%. Notably, Russian, Spanish, and Greek ethnicities have higher representation in Kensington compared to the regional average: Russian is at 1.0% versus 1.1%, Spanish at 1.0% versus 0.9%, and Greek at 5.0% versus 4.0%.

Kensington hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Kensington's median age is 30 years, which is significantly younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kensington has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (30.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (6.3%). This concentration of young adults is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that younger residents have lowered Kensington's median age by 2.5 years to 30. Between censuses, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 21.2% to 30.2%, while the proportions of those aged 45-54 decreased from 10.3% to 8.5% and those aged 55-64 dropped from 8.5% to 6.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts in Kensington, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age group, expected to grow by 31% adding 975 residents to reach a total of 4,115.