Kensington (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kensington reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Kensington (NSW) is estimated to be around 14,470 as of February 2026. This figure reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 11,927 people. The growth of 2,543 people represents an increase of 21.3%. AreaSearch's analysis, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, estimates the resident population to be 14,453. This high population density equates to 5,419 persons per square kilometer, placing Kensington in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 21.3% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the SA4 region (7.3%) and the state average, making it a significant growth leader.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year, are utilised. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a substantial population increase for Kensington. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 4,461 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 30.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kensington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Kensington had around 37 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY18 to FY22. This totals an estimated 188 homes. In FY26 so far, 0 approvals have been recorded. The average construction value of new homes is $878,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

Commercial approvals this year amount to $44.9 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kensington shows moderately higher construction activity, with 12.0% more approvals per person over the five-year period. Recent construction comprises 9.0% detached dwellings and 91.0% townhouses or apartments. Population forecasts indicate Kensington will gain 4,444 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth.

Population forecasts indicate Kensington will gain 4,444 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kensington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can be significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 57 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Meriton's Green Square Epsom Road Development, The Kensington by TOGA, Anson Group's Anzac Parade Residential Development, and UNSW's G25 Education Building. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Kensington ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Kensington has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%. Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 3.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 8,949 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A high 51.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors.

Notably, employment levels in education & training are at 1.5 times the regional average. Manufacturing employs just 2.6% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.7%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, while labour force grew by 3.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kensington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2023, Kensington had a median income among taxpayers of $57,367 and an average income of $87,838, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data. Nationally, these figures are extremely high, with median incomes at $60,817 and averages at $83,003 in Greater Sydney respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $62,450 and average income around $95,620, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Kensington cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that 31.9% of the population (4,615 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Notably, 33.1% exceed $3,000 weekly in Kensington, indicating strong purchasing power. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kensington features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Kensington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 21.1% houses and 78.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kensington was at 24.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.9% and rented ones at 56.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,760, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Kensington was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kensington's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kensington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households comprising 9.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kensington shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Kensington's educational attainment exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 50.8% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 32.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational pathways account for 19.8%, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 10.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.1% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 21.8% in tertiary education, 6.3% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Kensington shows that there are 52 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of light rail and bus services. The 30 individual routes collectively provide 13,075 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest transport stop. As Kensington is primarily residential, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport for these commutes is car, used by 55% of residents.

Bus use stands at 15%, and walking accounts for 10%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.7 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents work from home, with this figure standing at 51.2%. This may reflect conditions related to COVID-19. Service frequency averages 1,867 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 251 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kensington's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Kensington. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (8910 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions were mental health issues and asthma, affecting 6.9 and 6.1% of residents respectively. 77.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 74.6%. Kensington has 11.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1591 people), lower than the Greater Sydney average of 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Kensington is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kensington's population has significant linguistic diversity, with 41.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 47.6% of Kensington residents contribute to its cultural richness. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kensington, comprising 44.0% of the population.

Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Kensington compared to Greater Sydney, with 3.5% versus 0.8%. Ancestry-wise, the top groups are Other (16.4%), English (16.0%), and Australian (14.5%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Russian (1.0%, vs regional 0.4%), Spanish (1.0%, vs regional 0.6%), and Greek (5.0%, vs regional 1.9%) are more prevalent in Kensington than in Greater Sydney.

Kensington hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Kensington's median age is 30 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Kensington has a higher proportion of 15-24 year-olds (29.9%) compared to Greater Sydney but fewer 5-14 year-olds (6.4%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows a shift in median age down by 2.4 years to 30, with notable changes including an increase in the 15-24 age group from 21.2% to 29.9%, and decreases in the 45-54 cohort from 10.3% to 8.6% and the 55-64 group from 8.5% to 6.8%. Population forecasts for Kensington indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age cohort at 33%, adding 1,015 residents to reach a total of 4,112.