Randwick - South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Randwick - South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Randwick - South's population is around 13,699 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 964 people (7.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,735 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,672 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,065 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Randwick - South's 7.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.1%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 91.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Future demographic projections adopt standard data from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024 using 2022 as a baseline, supplemented by NSW Government forecasts published in 2022 with a 2021 base year for any remaining locations. Anticipated expansion dynamics for cohorts between 2032 and 2041 rely on these combined models. Forward-looking indicators suggest the local community will experience growth trajectory metrics that exceed national midpoints, with total numbers expanding by 2,689 persons by 2041 relative to recent annual ERP data, which translates to a long-term rise of 19.4% over 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Randwick - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Local construction activity registers around 43 new residential approvals on an annual basis, translating to 219 homes total over the preceding 5 financial years, while the current FY-26 period has reached 158 approvals. Matching this against historical demand of 1.5 new occupants per built unit annually between FY-21 and FY-25 indicates a healthy equilibrium supporting steady market trends, although recent updates reveal an acceleration to 11.7 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, pointing to higher occupancy pressure and declining vacant stock. Developers are prioritizing higher-tier buyers with projects averaging a construction value of $495,000. Additionally, commercial building approvals have hit $420.2 million this financial year, highlighting robust local business investment.

In comparison to the broader Greater Sydney region, local building volume is slightly higher, tracking 28.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year span, which provides diverse options for purchasers while maintaining asset values, even though local building velocity has cooled recently. The rate of new construction sits below the national standard, reflecting the built-out status of the neighborhood and highlighting possible regulatory constraints. The breakdown of incoming stock shows 2.0% detached houses and 98.0% attached dwellings, a high concentration of medium-to-high density structures that offers lower-cost entry points for downsizers, real estate investors, and first-home buyers. The ratio of roughly 1271 people per approval underscores the established character of the area.

Looking forward, the local population is projected to expand by 2,662 residents through to 2041 based on AreaSearch quarterly calculations. Should current building rates persist, the volume of incoming housing may fall short of demographic expansion, which could intensify buyer rivalry and drive stronger capital appreciation.

Randwick - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local performance is heavily shaped by developments in infrastructure, planning policies, and major projects. AreaSearch has identified 38 projects that are likely to influence the neighborhood. Key projects include Newmarket Randwick, the upgrade of the Randwick High School Co-educational Facility, the Heffron Netball Courts Shade Structure, and the Randwick Cultural and Community Centre, with the most relevant ones detailed in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Randwick - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

The local labor pool is characterized by high levels of education, with particularly strong representation in tech fields, an unemployment rate of only 2.8%, and a 2.9% rise in total local employment over the past year. In March 2026, working residents numbered 8,867, while local unemployment sat 1.4% below the 4.1% rate recorded for Greater Sydney, and labor participation reached 76.0%, significantly higher than the regional average of 69.1%. Census data indicates that 54.0% of local workers operated from home, though this figure was influenced by pandemic-related restrictions.

Resident jobs are heavily concentrated in the sectors of health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The professional & technical field is especially prominent, drawing 1.3 times the regional average share of workers. Conversely, manufacturing plays a minor role, employing only 2.2% of the workforce compared to 5.7% across the wider region. Reflecting its role as a regional employment center, the area records 1.1 jobs for every local worker as of the Census, drawing in commuters from external areas.

According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics for the 12 months ending March 2026, the local workforce expanded by 2.9% while the total labor pool grew by 1.9%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. This outpaced Greater Sydney, which recorded a 1.9% rise in employment alongside a 1.9% expansion of the labor force and a minimal drop in joblessness. Long-term regional needs are illuminated by national projections from Jobs and Skills Australia dating to May-25, which have been aligned with local industries to map potential trends over five- and ten-year spans. While national employment is set to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Projecting these industry-level shifts onto the local work structure indicates that local jobs could rise by 7.5% over five years and 15.0% over ten years, representing a simple weighted extrapolation that does not account for localized population changes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to the latest postcode-level tax data from the ATO for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the SA2 area recorded a median income of $71,101 and an average income of $110,274. These figures rank in the top national bands, exceeding the Greater Sydney median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Adjusting for a 10.32% rise in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current figures are estimated at approximately $78,439 for the median and $121,654 for the average as of March 2026. According to the Census, household, family, and individual earnings all sit between the 89th and 93rd percentiles across Australia. The weekly income band of $1,500 - 2,999 is the most common, accounting for 29.6% of residents (4,054 people), which aligns with the surrounding region where 30.9% of workers fall into this category. The high proportion of residents earning over $3,000 per week (41.8%) highlights local affluence, which underpins demand for premium retail options and services. Although residents allocate 19.4% of their income to housing costs, high earnings ensure that disposable income remains in the 84th percentile, placing the area in the 9th decile of the SEIFA income index.

Randwick - South features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

At the time of the latest Census, the local housing mix consisted of 16.9% detached houses and 83.1% multi-unit dwellings like townhouses and apartments, differing from the metropolitan Sydney distribution of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Homeownership rates stood at 23.5%, trailing the Sydney metropolitan average, with the remaining properties divided between mortgaged households (22.6%) and rental properties (53.8%). The median mortgage payment in the area was $3,160 per month, which is higher than the Sydney metropolitan average of $2,427, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $575 compared to the metropolitan average of $470. On a national level, these local mortgage costs are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and local rents are similarly above the national benchmark of $375.

Randwick - South features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 61.0% of local households, consisting of couples with children at 24.3%, couples without children at 27.5%, and single parents at 7.6%. The remaining 39.0% consists of non-family households, which includes lone-person households at 30.0% and group households at 9.1%. The average household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Randwick - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Local education levels are high, with 55.8% of residents aged 15 and over holding a university degree, compared to NSW's average of 32.2% and Australia's average of 30.4%. This strong academic profile supports participation in professional and knowledge-based fields. Bachelor degrees make up the largest share at 35.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 17.0% and graduate diplomas at 3.4%. Vocational education accounts for 19.8% of qualifications among residents aged 15 and older, consisting of advanced diplomas at 9.2% and certificates at 10.6%.

A high share of the community is engaged in learning, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in an educational institution. This includes 12.5% in higher education, 6.7% in primary school, and 5.8% attending high school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The local transit network consists of 86 active public transport stops, offering a combination of light rail and bus services. These stops support 76 distinct routes that carry 12,150 passenger trips per week. Transit access is high, with residents living an average of 109 meters from their nearest stop. Because the area is primarily residential, most workers commute out of the suburb, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 50%, followed by walking at 20% and bus travel at 13%. Car ownership stands at 0.6 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average. A high share of residents (54.0%) worked from home according to the 2021 Census, reflecting pandemic-era trends.

Service frequency across all routes averages 1,735 trips per day, which translates to approximately 141 weekly departures at each transport stop.

The level of general health in Randwick - South is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

The local community exhibits strong health profiles based on mortality and chronic illness data, with low rates of common health conditions across both younger and older cohorts, and private health insurance coverage is high at roughly 75% of the population (10,315 people). This rate exceeds the Greater Sydney average of 59.9% and the national baseline of 55.7%.

Mental health concerns and asthma represent the most frequent diagnoses locally, affecting 6.5% and 6.2% of residents respectively, while 77.2% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Seniors aged 65 and over represent 13.0% of residents (1,776 people), which is below the Greater Sydney average of 15.5%. Health measures for this older cohort are particularly strong, ranking higher nationally than the general local population.

Randwick - South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity is notable in the area, where 45.0% of the population was born abroad and 24.2% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the largest religious group, representing 47.1% of the community. However, the most distinct religious concentration is Judaism, which accounts for 3.8% of residents compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of parent country of origin, the largest ancestry groups are English at 22.9%, Australian at 15.5%, and Irish at 13.6%, which is higher than the regional average of 6.1%. Other specific ethnic groups also show notable concentrations compared to regional averages, including French ancestry at 1.4% of the population (versus 0.5% regionally), Hungarian at 0.6% (versus 0.3%), and Spanish at 1.0% (versus 0.6%).

Randwick - South's population is younger than the national pattern

The median age of 34 years makes the local area younger than both Greater Sydney at 37 years and Australia at 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the neighborhood has a higher share of residents aged 25 - 34 (23.5%) but fewer children aged 5 - 14 (7.4%). This concentration of young adults aged 25 - 34 is also higher than the national average of 14.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 grew from 13.3% to 17.1%, while the cohort aged 45 to 54 shrank from 12.4% to 10.4%. Demographic forecasts for 2041 suggest changes in age distribution, with the 25 to 34 group projected to grow fastest at 17%, adding 544 residents to reach 3,758, while the 0 to 4 group is expected to grow by only 9% (57 people).