Kensington (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kensington reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kensington's population is around 14,334 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,525 people (21.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,809 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,318 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5,429 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Kensington's 21.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (7.3%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 96.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 4,422 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 30.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kensington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kensington has recorded around 37 residential properties granted approval annually, with 188 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 0 so far in FY-26. As the area has experienced population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $504,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $44.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Kensington shows moderately higher development activity (13.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 8.0% standalone homes and 92.0% townhouses or apartments. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The location has approximately 423 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Looking ahead, Kensington is expected to grow by 4,406 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kensington has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 57 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Meriton Green Square Epsom Road Development, The Kensington by TOGA, Anson Group Anzac Parade Residential Development, and UNSW G25 Education Building, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Kensington shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kensington features a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.1%, and 3.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,876 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 51.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in education & training, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 2.7% versus the regional average of 5.7%. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.8% while the labour force increased by 3.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 2.2%, the labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kensington. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kensington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kensington SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $60,337 with the average level standing at $90,210. This is among the highest in Australia and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $65,683 (median) and $98,203 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Kensington cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.2% of the community (4,615 individuals), mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 32.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 19.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 68th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kensington features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Kensington, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 20.5% houses and 79.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kensington was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 24.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (19.0%) or rented (56.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $2,800, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Kensington's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kensington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 59.7% of all households, comprising 23.0% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.3%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 9.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kensington shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Kensington significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 51.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 32.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational pathways account for 19.8% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (10.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 39.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 21.9% in tertiary education, 6.3% in primary education, and 4.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 51 active transport stops operating within Kensington, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 30 individual routes, collectively providing 13,075 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 55%, with 15% by bus and 10% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.7 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 51.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,867 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 256 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kensington's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Kensington, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 66% of the total population (9,446 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.0% and 6.1% of residents, respectively, while 77.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 11.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,578 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kensington is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kensington scores highly on cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.7% born overseas. The main religion in Kensington is Christianity, which makes up 43.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 3.6% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kensington are Other, comprising 16.5% of the population, English, comprising 16.0% of the population, and Australian, comprising 14.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 1.0% of Kensington (vs 0.4% regionally), Spanish at 1.0% (vs 0.6%) and Greek at 4.8% (vs 1.9%).

Kensington hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Kensington's median age is materially younger than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and is substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Sydney, Kensington has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (30.0%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (6.3%). This 15 - 24 concentration is well above the national 12.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows younger residents have shifted the median age down by 2.3 years to 30. Notable shifts include the 15 to 24 age group, which has grown from 21.3% to 30.0% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.3% to 8.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 8.5% to 6.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kensington. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 33%, adding 1,016 residents to reach 4,091.