Kenthurst

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kenthurst reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Kenthurst's estimated population is around 5,881. This reflects an increase of 568 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,313. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 5,697 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in Jun 2024 and validation of additional 12 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 129 persons per square kilometer. Kenthurst's growth rate of 10.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (5.3%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to increase by 237 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 4.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kenthurst according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Kenthurst averaged around 21 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 105 homes were approved, with 18 more in FY-26 so far. Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.9 new residents arrived per new home.

This suggests new construction matches or outpaces demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average value of new dwellings developed is $1,097,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $16.2 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kenthurst has similar development levels per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. However, construction activity has eased recently. New building activity shows 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 414 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population projections show stability or decline, suggesting reduced housing demand pressures that could benefit potential buyers.

Kenthurst has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include North Kellyville Public School, Bellerive Rise Estate, Dural Town Centre, and Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kenthurst exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Kenthurst has an educated workforce with significant representation in construction. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth at 0.7%.

As of September 2025, 3,010 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is 63.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment concentrations are in construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction has strong specialization, at 2.4 times the regional level, while finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.1% versus the regional average of 7.3%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, labour force by 1.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kenthurst's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2023 shows that Kenthurst suburb had incomes among the top percentile nationally. The median assessed income was $60,170 and the average income stood at $122,829. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $65,501 (median) and $133,712 (average). Census data from August 2021 shows household incomes ranked exceptionally at the 97th percentile with $3,061 weekly. Income distribution reveals that 37.6% of locals (2,211 people) fall into the $4000+ category, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 51.2% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kenthurst is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kenthurst's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.2% other dwellings. Compared to Sydney metro's figures of 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings, Kenthurst had a higher proportion of houses. Home ownership in Kenthurst was at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented dwellings at 10.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,280, above Sydney metro's average of $3,000. The median weekly rent figure in Kenthurst was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $520. Nationally, Kenthurst's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kenthurst features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.9% of all households, consisting of 50.6% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 11.5% and group households comprising 0.4% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Kenthurst shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 127 active transport stops in Kenthurst, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 66 unique routes, offering a total of 449 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents located an average of 347 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kenthurst is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Kenthurst shows higher-than-average health outcomes for both young and elderly residents. Common health conditions have a low prevalence in this area. Approximately 75% of Kenthurst's total population of 4,426 people have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 72.5%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.8%). 72.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 72.3%. Kenthurst has 1,246 residents aged 65 and over, comprising 21.2% of the population, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 22.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Kenthurst are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Kenthurst records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kenthurst's cultural diversity was above average, with 20.5% of its population born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kenthurst, accounting for 69.9%, compared to 65.5% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.7%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese (3.0%) and Maltese (2.6%) populations were higher than the regional averages of 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Additionally, Croatian representation was slightly higher at 1.3%.

Kenthurst hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kenthurst's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group constitutes 16.6% of Kenthurst's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort makes up only 7.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.4% to 7.7%, while the 15-24 group increased from 15.4% to 16.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort decreased from 9.5% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Kenthurst's age profile. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 91%, reaching 247 from 129. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.