Kenthurst

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kenthurst reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Kenthurst is estimated at around 5,881, reflecting a 10.7% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,313 people. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 5,697 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density stands at 129 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kenthurst's growth rate exceeded both its SA3 area (5.3%) and the state level, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the suburb expected to increase by 215 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 4.3% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kenthurst according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kenthurst shows an average of around 21 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 105 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.9 new residents per year arrived per new home.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and enabling population growth. The average value of new dwellings under development is $1,097,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $16.2 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kenthurst has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. Recent construction activity has eased slightly. The majority of new building activity involves detached dwellings (88.0%), with medium and high-density housing accounting for the remainder (12.0%). This preserves the area's low-density nature, attracting space-seeking buyers. There are estimated to be 414 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Kenthurst has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include North Kellyville Public School, Bellerive Rise Estate, Dural Town Centre, and Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kenthurst exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Kenthurst has an educated workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.3% as of September 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year.

As of September 2025, 2,986 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's. Workforce participation in Kenthurst is 65.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high proportion of residents work from home, at 42.6%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services.

Construction has a particularly strong presence with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level. Finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.1% compared to the regional average of 7.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, labour force grew by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points in Kenthurst. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced higher growth rates for employment and labour force with a smaller increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kenthurst's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Kenthurst's median income at $60,170 and average income at $122,829. This compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes are approximately $65,501 (median) and $133,712 (average). Census 2021 data ranks Kenthurst's household incomes at the 97th percentile ($3,061 weekly). Income distribution shows 37.6% of locals earning over $4,000, contrasting with the surrounding region's leading bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 (30.9%). High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 51.2% of households, indicating strong consumer spending power. After housing costs, residents retain 88.3% of income, reflecting robust purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kenthurst is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kenthurst, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 95.9% houses and 4.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kenthurst was 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented dwellings at 10.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,280, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent in Kenthurst was $550, while Sydney metro recorded $470. Nationally, Kenthurst's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kenthurst features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 87.9% of all households, consisting of couples with children (50.6%), couples without children (29.5%), and single parent families (7.6%). Non-family households account for 12.1%, with lone person households at 11.5% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kenthurst shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.0% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kenthurst has 127 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that together facilitate 449 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 347 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kenthurst's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling in Kenthurst, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately three weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this information and displays the 100 nearest stops to Kenthurst's centerpoint.

Kenthurst's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kenthurst's health outcomes show exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Approximately 75% of Kenthurst's total population (4,426 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,270 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Kenthurst records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kenthurst had a cultural diversity above average, with 20.5% of its population born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Kenthurst, comprising 69.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.7%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (7.7%).

These figures differed from regional averages: English was substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian also significantly exceeded its regional average of 17.8%, while Other was notably lower than the regional average of 16.0%. Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences in representation: Lebanese at 3.0% (vs regional 2.6%), Maltese at 2.6% (vs regional 1.0%), and Croatian at 1.3% (vs regional 0.7%).

Kenthurst hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kenthurst's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group constitutes 16.8%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 7.3%. Post-2021 Census, the 15-24 age group rose from 15.4% to 16.8%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.4% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort decreased from 9.5% to 8.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant shifts in Kenthurst's age profile. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 79%, reaching 252 from 141. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for all projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 25-34 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.