Kenthurst

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kenthurst reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Kenthurst is around 5,881, reflecting a 10.7% increase since the 2021 Census which reported 5,313 people. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,697 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 129 persons per square kilometer. Kenthurst's growth exceeded both the SA3 area (5.3%) and the state, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 243 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 1.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kenthurst according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Kenthurst averaged around 21 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 106 homes were approved, with a further 20 approved so far in FY-26. On average, one new resident arrived per new home over these years, indicating that new construction is matching or outpacing demand.

The average value of new dwellings being developed is $1,097,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $16.2 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kenthurst's development levels per person are similar, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas.

However, construction activity has eased recently. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count of 400 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Kenthurst will gain 59 residents through to 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Kenthurst has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include North Kellyville Public School, Bellerive Rise Estate, Dural Town Centre, and Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Kenthurst demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Kenthurst has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate stands at 3.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,965 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kenthurst is at 64.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census responses indicate that 42.6% of residents work from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area has a significant employment specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, finance & insurance has a limited presence at 3.1%, compared to the regional average of 7.3%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% while employment declined by 0.8%, leading to an increase in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Kenthurst's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Kenthurst suburb's income level is exceptionally high nationally. According to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, median income among taxpayers is $60,170 and average income stands at $122,829. This compares with Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,501 for median income and $133,712 for average income as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank exceptionally at the 97th percentile ($3,061 weekly). Distribution data shows 37.6% of population (2,211 individuals) fall within $4000+ income range, differing from regional patterns where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Substantial proportion of high earners (51.2% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 88.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kenthurst is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kenthurst's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kenthurst was 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented ones at 10.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,280, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Kenthurst was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kenthurst's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kenthurst features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.9% of all households, including 50.6% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 11.5% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kenthurst shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In the specified area, university qualification rates stand at 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for focused educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent, with 20.7% of residents holding them, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent among residents aged 15 and above, with 36.5% holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.0%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (6.1%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kenthurst has 127 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that collectively facilitate 449 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically living just 347 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kenthurst's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling in Kenthurst, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Kenthurst's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kenthurst's health outcomes show exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 75% of Kenthurst's total population (4,426 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Kenthurst, affecting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,287 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Kenthurst records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kenthurst's population showed higher than average cultural diversity, with 20.5% born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kenthurst, accounting for 69.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.7%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese (3.0%) and Maltese (2.6%) were overrepresented in Kenthurst compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Additionally, Croatian ancestry was also higher at 1.3%.

Kenthurst hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kenthurst has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 16.9% of Kenthurst's population, compared to Greater Sydney. However, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 8.0%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 15.4% to 16.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 14.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Kenthurst's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 91%, reaching 269 people from 141. This growth is due solely to the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.