Kenthurst

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kenthurst reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the population of Kenthurst was estimated at around 5,205 as of May 2026. This reflected a decrease of 108 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,313. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 5,204 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2025 and validation of 20 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 114 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the suburb during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, lower quartile growth was anticipated, with the suburb expected to expand by 183 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 3.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kenthurst recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kenthurst shows an average of around 21 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 106 homes were approved, with a further 23 approved so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, about 3.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built annually.

This high demand exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is $1,097,000, indicating a focus on premium segment properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $16.2 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kenthurst has moderately higher building activity, with 11.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, although recent periods have seen a moderation in development activity. Recent construction comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% attached dwellings, preserving Kenthurst's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing that attracts space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 417 people. Future projections indicate Kenthurst adding 182 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kenthurst has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include North Kellyville Public School, Bellerive Rise Estate, Dural Town Centre, and Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kenthurst has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kenthurst has a well-educated workforce with a notable presence in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,835 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kenthurst is similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 42.6% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level.

However, finance & insurance has a limited presence at 3.1%, compared to 7.3% regionally. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. From December 2024 to December 2025, Kenthurst's labour force decreased by 1.2% and employment declined by 1.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimate overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kenthurst's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kenthurst is $60,170, with an average of $122,829 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, this places Kenthurst among the top percentile. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 and its average income is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $66,380 (median) and $135,505 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household incomes in Kenthurst rank at the 97th percentile with a weekly income of $3,061. The largest segment comprises 37.6% earning $4,000+ weekly, which is 1,957 residents. This differs from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. A substantial proportion of high earners (51.2% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity in the area. After housing costs, residents retain 88.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kenthurst is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kenthurst's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kenthurst stood at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented ones at 10.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,280, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Kenthurst was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kenthurst's mortgage repayments were higher at $3,280 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kenthurst features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.9% of all households, including 50.6% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 11.5% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kenthurst shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary (10.0%), secondary (9.3%), and tertiary (6.1%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kenthurst has 127 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that together facilitate 449 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located 347 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward, with the car being the primary mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling in Kenthurst, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 42.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop. A map is provided showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Kenthurst's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Kenthurst's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 75% of the total population (3,917 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most common conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.8%), while 72.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Kenthurst has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,119 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Kenthurst records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kenthurst had a cultural diversity above average, with 20.5% of its population born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kenthurst, accounting for 69.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.7%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese (3.0%) and Maltese (2.6%) were overrepresented in Kenthurst compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Croatian was also slightly overrepresented at 1.3%.

Kenthurst hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Kenthurst's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 17.4% of Kenthurst's population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort comprises 7.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.4% to 17.4%, and the 75-84 group has risen from 6.4% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 16.0% to 14.8%, and the 35-44 group has fallen from 9.5% to 8.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kenthurst's age profile. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 88 people, reaching 245 from 130, leading the demographic shift. Those aged 65 and above will account for 90% of this growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.