Kenthurst

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kenthurst reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Kenthurst's population is estimated at around 5,675, reflecting a 6.8% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,313 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,595 based on the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density is around 124 persons per square kilometer. Kenthurst's growth rate of 6.8% exceeded both the SA3 area's 3.2% and the state's growth rates, making it a regional growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the suburb expected to increase by 236 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 0.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kenthurst according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Kenthurst averaged around 19 new dwelling approvals per year. Ninety-nine homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25. Additionally, thirteen homes have been approved so far in FY26.

Over these five years, an average of 0.9 new residents arrived per new home, suggesting new construction is matching or outpacing demand. The average value of new dwellings developed was $1,097,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $2.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kenthurst maintains similar development levels per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. New building activity shows 88% detached dwellings and 12% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing. With around 276 people per dwelling approval, Kenthurst displays a developing market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Kenthurst may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kenthurst has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include North Kellyville Public School, Bellerive Rise Estate, Dural Town Centre, and Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kenthurst has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kenthurst has a well-educated workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of June 2025, which is 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. Residents' employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance has lower representation at 3.1% compared to the regional average of 7.3%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force grew by 3.5%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kenthurst's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Kenthurst is among the top percentile nationally. The median assessed income was $60,170 while the average income stood at $122,829. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $67,757 (median) and $138,318 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank exceptionally at the 97th percentile with a weekly income of $3,061. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 37.6% of locals (2,133 people) in the $4000+ category, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Economic strength emerges through 51.2% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kenthurst is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kenthurst's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 95.9% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kenthurst was at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented at 10.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,280, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Kenthurst was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $520. Nationally, Kenthurst's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kenthurst features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.9% of all households, including 50.6% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 11.5% and group households at 0.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Kenthurst shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 29.6%, significantly below the SA4 region average of 40.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education. Kenthurst's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,770 students while the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1086). The educational mix includes 2 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 48.8 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 25.4 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis shows 111 active transport stops in Kenthurst, served by buses via 66 routes offering 409 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 347 meters, with service frequency averaging 58 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 3 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kenthurst is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Kenthurst shows superior health outcomes with both young and elderly cohorts having low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 75% of its total population of 4,271 people have private health cover, significantly higher than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.8%), with 72.6% of residents reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 72.3%. Kenthurst has 21.1% of its population aged 65 and over (1,197 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 22.4%. Notably, health outcomes among seniors in Kenthurst are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kenthurst was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kenthurst, as per the 2016 Census, exhibited above-average cultural diversity with 20.5% of its population born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Kenthurst, comprising 69.9%, compared to 65.5% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.7%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese (3.0%) and Maltese (2.6%) populations were higher than the regional averages of 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively, while Croatian residents stood at 1.3%, slightly above Greater Sydney's 0.9%.

Kenthurst hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kenthurst's median age is 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group constitutes 16.6% of Kenthurst's population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 7.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.7%, and the 15-24 cohort has risen from 15.4% to 16.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort has decreased from 9.5% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Kenthurst's age profile. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 98%, reaching 247 from 124. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.