Box Hill - Nelson
Statistical Area - sa2

Box Hill - Nelson lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of August 2025, Box Hill - Nelson's population is approximately 25,989. This figure represents a significant increase from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,287 people. The growth of 15,702 individuals (152.6%) since the census date can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,422 in June 2024 and an additional 4,554 validated new addresses recorded subsequently. This results in a population density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Box Hill - Nelson's growth rate since the 2021 census (152.6%) exceeded both the state's growth rate (6.4%) and that of the metropolitan area, positioning it as a leading growth region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 89.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all factors including natural growth and overseas migration were positive influences on population growth.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Box Hill - Nelson is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it among the top 10 percent of national areas. By 2041, the area's population is projected to increase by 47,313 persons, marking a total increase of 168.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Box Hill - Nelson was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Box Hill - Nelson has averaged approximately 1234 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 6174 homes. As of FY-26222 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling accommodates about 2.9 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value for these new homes is around $494000.

This financial year has seen approximately $41.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust commercial development momentum compared to Greater Sydney, where Box Hill - Nelson records 285% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite recent moderation. This high level of activity is above the national average and reflects strong developer confidence in the area. About 80% of new building activity consists of detached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (98%), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With approximately 16 people per dwelling approval, Box Hill - Nelson exhibits characteristics of a growth area, with population forecasts indicating an addition of 43744 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate Box Hill - Nelson will gain 43,744 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Box Hill - Nelson has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 39 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include Stockland Halcyon Gables, Stockland The Gables, Box Hill Square, and The Hills of Carmel. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Box Hill - Nelson maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Box Hill - Nelson has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. In June 2025, 10,842 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Box Hill - Nelson was 77.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services.

Construction showed particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. Accommodation & food had limited presence at 3.1% compared to the regional average of 5.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, while labour force grew by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Hill - Nelson's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Box Hill - Nelson has an extremely high national income level according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Box Hill - Nelson is $65,830 and the average income stands at $77,605. These figures compare to those of Greater Sydney's which are $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $74,131 for the median income and $87,391 for the average income as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Box Hill - Nelson, between the 94th and 97th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort spans 35.3% of locals (9,174 people) with weekly earnings in the $1,500 - 2,999 category. This pattern is similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 49.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 19.8% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 95th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Box Hill - Nelson is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Box Hill - Nelson's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill - Nelson stood at 12.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 68.1% and rented ones at 19.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $595 compared to Sydney metro's $3,000 and $600 respectively. Nationally, Box Hill - Nelson's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill - Nelson features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 92.0% of all households, including 60.7% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 8.0%, with lone person households at 7.0% and group households comprising 1.0%. The median household size is 3.3 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational achievement in Box Hill - Nelson places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Box Hill - Nelson shows that 45.1% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 29.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.1% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (17.9%). Current educational participation is high at 32.8%, with 13.9% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Santa Sophia Catholic College (Secondary) and Santa Sophia Catholic College (Primary) serve a total of 1,781 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1093. Educational provision is conventional, with one primary and one secondary institution. Local school capacity is limited at 6.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.4, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 133 active transport stops operating within Box Hill - Nelson. These are served by a mix of buses, with 61 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 1,934 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 276 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill - Nelson's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Box Hill - Nelson's health outcomes data shows excellent results with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (15,281 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0% and 4.3% of residents respectively. A majority, 82.2%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 79.5% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, the area has 5.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,439 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 9.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Box Hill - Nelson is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill-Nelson has high cultural diversity, with 41.9% of its population born overseas and 43.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Box Hill-Nelson, making up 51.4%. Hinduism is significantly overrepresented at 14.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 8.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (17.9%), and English (15.2%). Notably, Filipino (6.2% vs regional 3.5%), Indian (10.3% vs 7.2%), and Maltese (2.8% vs 2.9%) are overrepresented.

Box Hill - Nelson hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Box Hill - Nelson has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Sydney average of 37 years and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill - Nelson has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (25.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.0%). This concentration of residents aged 35-44 is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 22.1% to 25.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has grown from 17.5% to 19.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 18.6% to 13.0%, and the proportion of residents aged 0-4 has dropped from 11.1% to 9.0%. Demographic modeling indicates that Box Hill - Nelson's age profile is projected to change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 15-24 cohort, which is projected to grow by 447%, adding 12,771 residents to reach a total of 15,630.