Box Hill - Nelson

Box Hill - Nelson lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Hill - Nelson's population is around 27,245 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 16,958 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,287 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,421 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4,935 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,293 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Box Hill - Nelson's growth of 164.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (6.7%) and metropolitan area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 89.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Box Hill - Nelson in the top 10 percent of national areas. The area is expected to expand by 47,313 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 155.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Box Hill - Nelson was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Box Hill - Nelson has averaged approximately 1,234 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 6,174 homes. As of FY-26397 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling has accommodated around 2.9 new residents annually over the last five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), indicating robust demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of these new homes is $381,000.

In this financial year, there have been $41.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill - Nelson has seen 285.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite recent moderation in development activity. This high level of activity reflects strong developer confidence in the area and is well above the national average. The new building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 98.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 16 people per dwelling approval, Box Hill - Nelson exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 42,488 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Box Hill - Nelson has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 38 potential impact projects. Key initiatives include Stockland Halcyon Gables, Stockland The Gables, Box Hill Square, Box Hill Public School, and Box Hill High School. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Box Hill - Nelson well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Box Hill - Nelson has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.4%, lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.2%.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 2.9%. As of September 2025, 12,902 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation is high at 77.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services.

The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. However, accommodation & food services have limited presence at 3.1%, compared to the regional average of 5.8%. Employment trends indicate that over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.9% while labour force grew by 3.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, labour force grow by 2.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment could expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Box Hill - Nelson's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Box Hill - Nelson SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers was $65,830 and average income stood at $77,605, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $74,131 (median) and $87,391 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Box Hill - Nelson, between the 94th and 96th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort spans 35.3% of locals (9,617 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 49.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 19.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 94th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Box Hill - Nelson is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Box Hill - Nelson's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill - Nelson was at 12.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 68.1% and rented ones at 19.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $595 compared to Sydney metro's $3,000 and $600 respectively. Nationally, Box Hill - Nelson's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill - Nelson features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 92.0% of all households, including 60.7% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 8.0%, with lone person households at 7.0% and group households making up 1.0%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational achievement in Box Hill - Nelson places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Box Hill - Nelson has higher educational attainment than broader benchmarks. 45.1% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are most common at 29.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (17.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 133 active stops in Box Hill - Nelson area, all bus services. These are covered by 61 routes offering 1,934 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated good with residents typically 238 meters from nearest stop.

Average daily trips across all routes is 276, equating to around 14 weekly trips per stop.

Box Hill - Nelson's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Box Hill - Nelson shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 59%, covering about 16,020 people in total. Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.0% and 4.3% of residents respectively. About 82.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 79.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 5.5%, or about 1,509 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 9.5%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Box Hill - Nelson is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill-Nelson ranks high in cultural diversity, with 41.9% of its population born overseas and 43.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 51.4%. Hinduism is notably higher than the Greater Sydney average, comprising 14.1% compared to 8.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (17.9%), and English (15.2%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Filipino at 6.2% (regional average is 3.5%), Indian at 10.3% (regional average is 7.2%), and Maltese at 2.8%.

Box Hill - Nelson hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Box Hill-Nelson has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill-Nelson has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (25.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5%). This concentration of residents aged 35-44 is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the percentage of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 22.1% to 25.2%, while the percentage of residents aged 5-14 has risen from 17.5% to 19.8%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 18.6% to 13.0%, and the percentage of residents aged 0-4 has dropped from 11.1% to 9.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Box Hill-Nelson's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 15-24 cohort, which is expected to grow by 422%, adding 12,633 residents to reach a total of 15,630.