Box Hill - Nelson
Statistical Area - sa2

Box Hill - Nelson lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Hill - Nelson's population is around 25,989 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 15,702 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,287 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,422 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4,554 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Box Hill - Nelson's growth rate of 152.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (6.4%) and metropolitan area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 89.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, with the area expected to expand by 47,313 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, indicating a total increase of 168.3% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Box Hill - Nelson was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Box Hill - Nelson has averaged approximately 738 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, indicating 3,694 dwellings approved over the past five years from FY-20 to FY-25, with 143 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, each new dwelling accommodates approximately 2.9 new residents annually over the last five financial years. This healthy demand supports property values, with new homes being built at an average construction cost value of $494,000.

Commercial development is strong this financial year, with $41.1 million in approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill - Nelson records significantly higher development activity per capita, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity comprises 80% detached dwellings and 20% attached dwellings, sustaining the suburban identity of the area with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This represents a considerable shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (98%), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 16 people per dwelling approval, Box Hill - Nelson displays characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, Box Hill - Nelson is projected to grow by approximately 43,744 residents through to 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential heightened competition among buyers as the population grows.

Looking ahead, Box Hill - Nelson is expected to grow by 43,744 residents through to 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Box Hill - Nelson has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Stockland Halcyon Gables, Stockland The Gables, Box Hill Square, and The Hills of Carmel. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Box Hill - Nelson maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Box Hill - Nelson has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 1.5%.

As of June 2025, 10,842 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 77.2%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services. Construction is particularly strong, with employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Accommodation & food has limited presence, at 3.1% compared to 5.8% regionally. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, labour force grew by 3.1%, raising unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment increase by 0.3%. State-level data (Sep-25) shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years, 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Hill - Nelson's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years, 14.1% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Box Hill - Nelson's median taxpayer income was $65,830 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $77,605 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By March 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $72,808 (median) and $85,831 (average), accounting for a 10.6% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Box Hill - Nelson, between the 94th and 97th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 35.3% of locals (9,174 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category. Higher earners make up a substantial presence, with 49.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.8% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 95th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Box Hill - Nelson is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Box Hill - Nelson, as per the latest Census evaluation, 98.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 1.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This differs from Sydney metro's composition of 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill - Nelson stood at 12.1%, with mortgaged properties at 68.1% and rented ones at 19.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, aligning with the Sydney metro average, while the median weekly rent was $595, compared to Sydney metro's $3,000 and $600 respectively. Nationally, Box Hill - Nelson's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill - Nelson features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 92.0% of all households, including 60.7% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 8.0%, with lone person households at 7.0% and group households comprising 1.0% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational achievement in Box Hill - Nelson places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Box Hill - Nelson shows that 45.1% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 29.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.1% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (17.9%). Current educational participation is high at 32.8%, including primary education (13.9%), secondary education (6.8%), and tertiary education (5.0%).

Educational institutions include Santa Sophia Catholic College (Secondary) and Santa Sophia Catholic College (Primary), serving a total of 1,781 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1093. There is one primary and one secondary institution providing education locally, but limited local school capacity (7.1 places per 100 residents vs the regional average of 14.6) means many families seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 133 active transport stops in Box Hill - Nelson area, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 61 unique routes, together offering 1,934 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average being 238 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 276 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill - Nelson's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Box Hill - Nelson demonstrates excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (15,281 people). Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.0% and 4.3% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 82.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 79.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 5.5% (1,439 people) compared to the 9.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention despite being strong overall.

Box Hill - Nelson is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill-Nelson scores highly in cultural diversity, with 41.9% of its population born overseas and 43.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Box Hill-Nelson, comprising 51.4% of people. Hinduism is overrepresented at 14.1%, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 8.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (17.9%), and English (15.2%). Filipino (6.2%) and Indian (10.3%) populations are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 3.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Maltese representation is also notable at 2.8%.

Box Hill - Nelson hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Box Hill-Nelson has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill-Nelson has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (25.2%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 22.1% to 25.2%, while those aged 5-14 have grown from 17.5% to 19.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 18.6% to 13.0%, and those aged 0-4 have dropped from 11.1% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Box Hill-Nelson's age profile. The 15-24 cohort is expected to grow strongly at a rate of 447%, adding 12,771 residents to reach a total of 15,630.