Box Hill - Nelson
Statistical Area - sa2

Box Hill - Nelson lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Hill - Nelson's population is around 27,245 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 16,958 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,287 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,421 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4,935 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,293 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Box Hill - Nelson's growth rate of 164.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (6.7%) and metropolitan area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 89.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 47,313 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 155.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Box Hill - Nelson was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Box Hill - Nelson averaged approximately 1,234 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 6,174 homes. As of FY-26304 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling has accommodated around 2.9 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $381,000.

This financial year has seen $41.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill - Nelson records 285% more development activity per capita. This creates greater choice for buyers, although recent periods have shown a moderation in development activity. Nationally, this level of activity reflects strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity comprises 80% detached dwellings and 20% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 98% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 16 people per dwelling approval, Box Hill - Nelson exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Box Hill - Nelson will gain approximately 42,488 residents by the year 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Box Hill - Nelson has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 38 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Stockland Halcyon Gables, Stockland The Gables, Box Hill Square, and The Hills of Carmel. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Box Hill - Nelson maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Box Hill - Nelson has an unemployment rate of 3.9% as of June 2025. This is 0.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The workforce participation rate in Box Hill - Nelson is 77.2%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Over the past year, employment grew by 1.5%, while the labour force increased by 3.1%, causing a rise in unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment increase by only 0.3 percentage points. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services.

Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. However, accommodation & food has limited presence at 3.1%, compared to the regional average of 5.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Box Hill - Nelson's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Box Hill - Nelson has an extremely high income level nationally according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers is $65,830 and the average income stands at $77,605. This compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $74,131 (median) and $87,391 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Box Hill - Nelson, between the 94th and 97th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort spans 35.3% of locals (9,617 people) with weekly earnings in the $1,500 - 2,999 category. This pattern is similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 49.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 19.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 95th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Box Hill - Nelson is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Box Hill - Nelson's dwellings were 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings in the latest Census. Sydney metro had 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill - Nelson was 12.1%, with mortgages at 68.1% and rentals at 19.9%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $3,000, matching Sydney metro's average. Median weekly rents were $595 compared to Sydney metro's $600. Nationally, Box Hill - Nelson's median mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 by September 2021, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Box Hill - Nelson features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 92.0% of all households, consisting of 60.7% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 8.0%, with lone person households at 7.0% and group households comprising 1.0% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational achievement in Box Hill - Nelson places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Box Hill - Nelson shows significantly higher levels than broader benchmarks. As of 2016 data, 45.1% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. This includes 29.6% with bachelor degrees, 12.8% with postgraduate qualifications, and 2.7% with graduate diplomas. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.1% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications - including 12.2% with advanced diplomas and 17.9% with certificates.

Educational participation is high, with 32.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016 data. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education. The area's educational provision includes Santa Sophia Catholic College (Secondary) and Santa Sophia Catholic College (Primary), collectively serving 1,781 students as of 2016 data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1093. Educational provision is split between one primary and one secondary institution, with limited local school capacity at 6.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.4, indicating many families may travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 133 active stops operating in Box Hill - Nelson. These are mixed-use bus stops serviced by 61 routes offering 1,934 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents located an average of 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 276 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill - Nelson's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Box Hill - Nelson's health outcomes data shows excellent results with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 59% of the total population (16,020 people) has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0 and 4.3% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 82.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to the Greater Sydney average of 79.5%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 5.5% (1,509 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 9.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Box Hill - Nelson is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill-Nelson ranks high in cultural diversity, with 41.9% of its population born overseas and 43.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 51.4% of people in Box Hill-Nelson. Hinduism is notably overrepresented at 14.1%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 8.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.4%), Australian (17.9%), and English (15.2%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Filipino at 6.2% (regional average 3.5%), Indian at 10.3% (regional average 7.2%), and Maltese at 2.8%.

Box Hill - Nelson hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 32 years, Box Hill-Nelson has a median age that is materially younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and significantly lower than the national average of 38. Relative to Greater Sydney, Box Hill-Nelson has a higher concentration of residents aged 35-44 (25.2%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 22.1% to 25.2%, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 17.5% to 19.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 18.6% to 13.0%, and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 11.1% to 9.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Box Hill-Nelson's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 15 to 24 cohort at 422%, adding 12,633 residents to reach a total of 15,630.