Vineyard

Population growth drivers in Vineyard are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Vineyard statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 1,590 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 447 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,143 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 1,497 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 220 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 149 persons per square kilometer. The Vineyard's growth rate of 39.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.6%) and metropolitan area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 1,386 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 66.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Vineyard when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Vineyard has received around 36 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 180 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. In FY-26 so far, 42 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 people have moved to Vineyard annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost of new properties in Vineyard is $521,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment.

In FY-26, $7.4 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded. Current building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving Vineyard's low-density character and appealing to families seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (66.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With approximately 28 people per dwelling approval, Vineyard exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Vineyard is projected to gain 1,064 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Vineyard has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Box Hill Public School and High School, Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill, and Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Vineyard has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Vineyard's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a 5.0% unemployment rate and an estimated 2.0% employment growth in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, Vineyard has 664 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 5.0%, which is 0.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lags at 48.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction is notably concentrated, with levels at 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 4.3% of Vineyard's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Over the past year, ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.0%, and labour force grew by 2.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vineyard's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 5.8% in five years and 12.0% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Vineyard had a median taxpayer income of $41,722 and an average income of $50,521 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are lower than the national averages. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income was $60,817 with an average income of $83,003 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Vineyard as of September 2025 would be approximately $45,419 and $54,997 respectively. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Vineyard fall between the 14th and 17th percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 27.9% of individuals (443 people) earn between $400 - $799 per week, contrasting with the broader area where the leading bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 at 30.9%. Income polarization is evident in Vineyard, with 36.8% of individuals earning less than $800 per week and another 22.3% earning more than $3,000 per week. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Vineyard displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Vineyard's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership in Vineyard stood at 54.9%, with 18.5% of dwellings mortgaged and 26.7% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, while the median weekly rent was recorded as $450. Compared nationally, Vineyard's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vineyard features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.4 people

Family households account for 59.4 percent of all households, including 25.7 percent couples with children, 25.0 percent couples without children, and 8.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.6 percent, with lone person households at 38.6 percent and group households comprising 1.2 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people.

Educational outcomes in Vineyard fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 31.4%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.8% in primary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 34 active stops operating within Vineyard, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 572 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 81 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Vineyard is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Vineyard faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 47% (~746 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (7.3%). Conversely, 64.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, contrasting with Greater Sydney's 0%. The area has a high proportion of seniors, with 25.2% (400 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Vineyard was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Vineyard's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 20.6% born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vineyard, making up 68.7%. This compares to 0% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are English (26.6%), Australian (24.4%), and Maltese (8.1%). Notably, Hungarian (0.6%) and Dutch (1.8%) are overrepresented in Vineyard compared to the regional average of 0%.

Vineyard ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Vineyard's median age of 50 years is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Vineyard has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (17.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.2%). This 55-64 concentration is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of Vineyard's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.6% to 9.7%, while the percentage of residents aged 0 to 4 has declined from 3.2% to 2.2%. By 2041, Vineyard is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 group expected to grow by 84% (190 people), reaching a total of 416 from the current figure of 225.