Vineyard

Population growth drivers in Vineyard are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Vineyard is around 1,734 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 591 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,143 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,650 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 295 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 163 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 51.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the state's growth rate of 7.1%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing the suburb in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation. The area is expected to expand by 1,870 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 103.0% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Vineyard among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Vineyard had around 43 new homes approved per year. Approximately 215 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 57 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.5 new residents arrived per new home each year over these five financial years, suggesting balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and a focus on premium developments with an average construction value of $521,000.

This financial year has seen $7.4 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Recent development has been exclusively detached houses, maintaining Vineyard's traditional low-density character and appealing to families seeking space.

Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than previously implied by census data (66.0%), indicating strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. With around 23 people per dwelling approval, Vineyard exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 1,786 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Vineyard has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 15 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Box Hill Public School and High School, Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill, and Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill. The following list details those projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Vineyard recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Vineyard's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being notably prominent. The unemployment rate was 6.2% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 5.4%. As of December 2025877 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is 2.0% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was lower at 64.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 26.9% of residents worked from home. The key industries were construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance, with construction having a particularly high concentration at 2.4 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence, with only 4.3% employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.6, indicating above-average local employment opportunities. In the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4%, labour force grew by 6.6%, and unemployment rose by 1.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vineyard's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Vineyard's median income among taxpayers was $41,722 in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The suburb's average income stood at $50,521 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By March 2026, based on a 10.32% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, Vineyard's estimated median income would be approximately $46,028, and the average income would be around $55,735. The 2021 Census figures indicate that household, family, and personal incomes in Vineyard fall between the 14th and 17th percentiles nationally. In Vineyard, 27.9% of residents (483 people) earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, contrasting with the surrounding region where the dominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.9%. The suburb has a diverse economic landscape with lower-income residents making up 36.8% and affluent households comprising 22.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Vineyard, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Vineyard displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Vineyard, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vineyard was at 54.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (18.5%) or rented (26.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Vineyard was $2,167, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Vineyard was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Vineyard's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vineyard features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.4% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.6% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Vineyard fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 31.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.8% in primary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vineyard has 34 operating public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that collectively facilitate 572 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 185 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 89% of residents, while 10% walk. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 81 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Vineyard is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Vineyard faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 814 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis, affecting 10.2% of residents, and mental health issues, impacting 7.3%. About 64.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 25.9% of residents aged 65 and over (449 people), which is higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Vineyard was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Vineyard's cultural diversity is above average, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vineyard, accounting for 68.7%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (26.6%), Australian (24.4%), and Maltese (8.1%), all higher than regional averages of 19.0%, 17.8%, and 1.0% respectively.

Notably, Hungarian (0.6%), Dutch (1.8%), and French (0.7%) groups are overrepresented in Vineyard compared to regional averages of 0.3%, 0.7%, and 0.5%.

Vineyard ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Vineyard's median age of 50 years is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Vineyard has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (17.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.9%). This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of Vineyard's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.6% to 9.6%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 15.0% to 13.7% and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 9.9% to 8.8%. By 2041, Vineyard's population is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 114%, adding 271 people and reaching a total of 509 from the current figure of 237.