Vineyard

Population growth drivers in Vineyard are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Vineyard is around 1,747. This represents an increase of 604 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,143. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,578 based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 164 persons per square kilometer. Vineyard's growth rate of 52.8% since the 2021 census exceeds both the state average (6.7%) and metropolitan area, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing Vineyard in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 1,340 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 49.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Vineyard when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Vineyard has experienced approximately 47 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling around 237 homes. As of FY-26, 30 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 0.7 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current expectations.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is around $521,000. In FY-26, there have been approximately $6.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development.

Recent development in Vineyard has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space. Interestingly, developers are constructing more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (66.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With around 16 people per dwelling approval, Vineyard exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Vineyard is projected to add approximately 861 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Vineyard has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Box Hill Public School and High School, Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill, and Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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Employment performance in Vineyard has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Vineyard's workforce comprises an equal mix of white and blue-collar jobs. Its construction sector is prominent, with a 5.2% unemployment rate and 3.3% employment growth in the past year, as per AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Vineyard has 655 employed residents, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, which is 1.0% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 48.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors are construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction jobs are particularly high, at 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, with only 4.3% of Vineyard's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating ample local employment opportunities. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.3%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, raising unemployment by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% and labour force by 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 forecasts project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but sector-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Vineyard's employment mix suggests local jobs should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, assuming steady population levels.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Vineyard's median taxpayer income was $41,712 and average income was $50,515 in financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $46,972 and average income $56,885, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%. Census data shows Vineyard's incomes rank between the 14th and 17th percentiles nationally. The $400 - 799 earnings band captures 27.9% of Vineyard residents (487 individuals), while the broader area has the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leading at 30.9%. Income distribution shows polarization: 36.8% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 22.3% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Vineyard displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vineyard's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metro had no houses or other dwellings recorded at that time. Home ownership in Vineyard was 54.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.5% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Vineyard was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's figure. Median weekly rent in Vineyard stood at $450, unlike Sydney metro which had no recorded rents. Nationally, Vineyard's mortgage repayments were higher than the average of $1,863, and its rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vineyard features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.4 people

Family households account for 59.4% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.6% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people.

Educational outcomes in Vineyard fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Vineyard has lower university qualification rates at 13.3%, significantly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common (8.3%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is high at 28.3%, comprising secondary education (9.8%), primary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (3.7%). Vineyard Public School serves the local area with an enrollment of 76 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 959) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area has one school focused exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in neighboring regions. The low ratio of 4.3 school places per 100 residents suggests many local students attend schools outside Vineyard.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 27 active public transport stops in Vineyard. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 12 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 337 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 48 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Vineyard is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Vineyard faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions.

Only approximately 47% (~820 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (7.3%). In contrast, 64.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney. Vineyard has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 25.3% (441 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to those seen in the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Vineyard was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Vineyard's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 20.6% born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vineyard, accounting for 68.7% of its population, compared to None% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (26.6%), Australian (24.4%), and Maltese (8.1%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.6%) and Dutch (1.8%) are overrepresented in Vineyard compared to regional figures of None%. French also shows a notable presence at 0.7% compared to None% regionally.

Vineyard ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Vineyard's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Vineyard has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (17.2%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.2%). This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Vineyard's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.6% to 9.7%, while the proportion of residents aged 0 to 4 has declined from 3.2% to 2.1%. By 2041, Vineyard is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 67% (166 people), reaching a total of 415 residents from the current figure of 248.