Vineyard

Population growth drivers in Vineyard are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Vineyard is around 1,599 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 456 people from the population reported in the 2021 Census, which was 1,143 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,497 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 278 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 150 persons per square kilometer. Vineyard's growth rate of 39.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Vineyard in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. The area is expected to expand by 1,348 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 63.7% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Vineyard when compared nationally

Vineyard has received approximately 36 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 180 homes. In FY26 so far, 42 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase for each dwelling built in Vineyard between FY21 and FY25 is 0.9 people per year. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties in Vineyard is $521,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, approximately $7.4 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting limited commercial development focus.

All recent building activity consists of detached houses, maintaining Vineyard's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking family homes despite density pressures. This is notable as it indicates continued strong demand for family homes, with developers constructing more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (66.0% at Census). Vineyard shows characteristics of a growth area, with around 28 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Vineyard is projected to grow by 1,019 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Vineyard has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Box Hill Public School and High School, Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill, and Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Vineyard has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Vineyard's workforce comprises white and blue-collar employees with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of that date, 650 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 0.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Vineyard was significantly lower at 52.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses indicated that 26.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors included construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction employment was particularly high at 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services were under-represented with only 4.3% of Vineyard's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.6, suggesting a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Over the 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.4% while labour force grew by 2.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vineyard's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, although these figures are illustrative extrapolations and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Vineyard suburb is $41,722 and the average is $50,521 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $45,419 (median) and $54,997 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Vineyard fall between the 14th and 17th percentiles nationally. The $400 - $799 earnings band captures 27.9% of the community (446 individuals), contrasting with broader areas where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Income distribution shows polarization: 36.8% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 22.3% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Vineyard displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vineyard's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vineyard was at 54.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.5% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Vineyard was $2,167, below Sydney metro's $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Vineyard was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Vineyard's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vineyard features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.4% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.6% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Vineyard fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 8.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 42.1% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (9.8%), primary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vineyard has 34 active public transport stops, all providing bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, offering a total of 572 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 185 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 89%. Walking accounts for 10% of journeys. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 81 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Vineyard is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Vineyard faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but slightly higher among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 751 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.2% and 7.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.9% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 25.4% of residents aged 65 and over (406 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Vineyard was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Vineyard's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 20.6% born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vineyard, accounting for 68.7%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (26.6%), Australian (24.4%), and Maltese (8.1%).

These figures exceed their respective regional averages of 19.0%, 17.8%, and 1.0%. Notably, Hungarian (0.6%), Dutch (1.8%), and French (0.7%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Vineyard compared to the regional averages of 0.3%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively.

Vineyard ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Vineyard's median age of 50 years is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and above the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Vineyard has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (17.1%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.0%). This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of Vineyard's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.6% to 9.6%, while the proportion of residents aged 0 to 4 has declined from 3.2% to 2.1%. The proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has also dropped, from 9.9% to 8.8%. By 2041, Vineyard's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. Notably, the 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 82%, reaching 410 residents from its current figure of 225.