Vineyard

Population growth drivers in Vineyard are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Vineyard's population is estimated at around 1,599 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 456 people (39.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,143 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,497 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 278 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 150 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Vineyard's 39.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%), along with Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 1,780 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 104.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Vineyard when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Vineyard had approximately 43 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 215 homes were approved, with an additional 47 approved in FY-26. On average, 0.8 new residents per year arrived for each new home over the past five financial years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these properties was $521,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $7.4 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, demonstrating Vineyard's primarily residential nature.

Recent development has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to families seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than previously indicated (66.0% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. With around 20 people per dwelling approval, Vineyard exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Vineyard will add approximately 1,678 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Vineyard has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Box Hill Public School and High School, Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill, and Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Vineyard faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Vineyard's workforce spans white and blue collar jobs, with construction notable for its representation. Unemployment stood at 5.7% in December 2025, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was lower at 51.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%.

A significant 26.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction employment is high at 2.4 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are relatively low at 4.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, Vineyard's labour force increased by 0.7%, but employment declined by 0.5%, raising unemployment by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vineyard's industry mix suggests local employment could grow by 5.8% in five years and 12.0% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Vineyard's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $41,722. The average income stood at $50,521 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,419 (median) and $54,997 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Vineyard fell between the 14th and 17th percentiles nationally. The $400 - $799 income bracket dominated with 27.9% of residents. In contrast, the surrounding region had the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket as the leading category at 30.9%. Vineyard exhibited a diverse economic landscape with both lower-income residents (36.8%) and affluent households (22.3%). Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Vineyard displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Vineyard's dwelling structure as 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 54.9% houses and 45.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vineyard stood at 54.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.5% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Vineyard was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Vineyard's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vineyard features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.4% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.6% and group households at 1.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Vineyard fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 8.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.8% in primary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vineyard has 34 operational public transport stops, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, providing a total of 572 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Vineyard's residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 89%, while 10% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 81 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Vineyard is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Vineyard faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 751 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.2 and 7.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.6% (around 409 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Vineyard was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Vineyard's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Vineyard is Christianity, which accounts for 68.7% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Vineyard are English (26.6%), Australian (24.4%), and Maltese (8.1%).

These percentages are substantially higher than their respective regional averages: English at 19.0%, Australian at 17.8%, and Maltese at 1.0%. Notably, certain ethnic groups have higher representations in Vineyard compared to the region: Hungarian at 0.6% vs 0.3%, Dutch at 1.8% vs 0.7%, and French at 0.7% vs 0.5%.

Vineyard ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Vineyard's median age of 50 years is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Vineyard has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.9%). This 55-64 concentration is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between 2021 and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 8.6% to 9.7% of Vineyard's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 15.0% to 13.9%. By 2041, Vineyard is projected to experience notable changes in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 group set to grow by 117%, reaching 483 people from a previous count of 222.