McGraths Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in McGraths Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, McGraths Hill's population is estimated at around 2,535 people. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 2,537 people, a change inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,331 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 820 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, McGraths Hill has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the state. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing McGraths Hill in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 2,054 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 84.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in McGraths Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows McGraths Hill averaged around 1 new dwelling approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 6 homes. As of FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 19.8 new residents per year for every home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand outpaces supply.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $522,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill has lower building activity, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 870 people. By 2041, AreaSearch quarterly estimates suggest McGraths Hill will grow by 2,148 residents.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

McGraths Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to influence this region: Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre and Pitt Town Bypass. Other notable projects include Newpark Estate and Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill. The following details these projects, focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in McGraths Hill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

McGraths Hill has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 5.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 1.6%. Compared to Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, McGraths Hill's is higher by 1.5 percentage points. Workforce participation is also higher, at 71.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employment levels are notably high, at 2.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical jobs are lower than average, at 4.0% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by a comparison of Census working population and resident population figures. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force grew by 2.7%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rise by only 0.3 percentage points over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that McGraths Hill's local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the current local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

McGraths Hill had a median taxpayer income of $61,127 and an average income of $74,204 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 during the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,835 (median) and $83,561 (average), based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data indicates that income levels in McGraths Hill cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 39.7% of the population, equating to 1,006 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. In McGraths Hill, high housing costs consume 17.1% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

McGraths Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in McGraths Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census (2016), comprised 92.2% houses and 7.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in McGraths Hill was 28.8%, with the remainder either mortgaged (50.5%) or rented (20.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,392, below Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $600. Nationally, McGraths Hill's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McGraths Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.0% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.3.

McGraths Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 33.7%. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Schools appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access them in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 35 active stops in McGraths Hill, served by buses via 28 routes offering 414 weekly trips. Average distance to nearest stop is 111 meters. Daily service frequency averages 59 trips across all routes, equating to around 11 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 59 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

McGraths Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout McGraths Hill. Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,425 people), compared to 60.6% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.7 and 7.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 72.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 79.5% across Greater Sydney. As of 2016 data, 11.6% of McGraths Hill's population is aged 65 and over (294 people), which is higher than the 9.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

McGraths Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McGraths Hill, as per the census on 28 June 2016, had a below-average cultural diversity. It was reported that 87.9% of its population were born in Australia, with 92.3% being Australian citizens and 92.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion, comprising 57.9% of McGraths Hill's population, compared to 55.0% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.6%), English (28.3%), and Scottish (7.7%). Notably, Maltese (2.7%) was overrepresented in McGraths Hill compared to the regional average of 2.9%, Russian (0.5%) was also higher than the regional average of 0.3%, and Lebanese (1.2%) showed a slight divergence from the regional average of 1.0%.

McGraths Hill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McGraths Hill's median age is 34, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill has a higher percentage of 0-4 year-olds (8.5%) but fewer 65-74 year-olds (5.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.8% to 13.0%, while those aged 75-84 have increased from 3.4% to 4.5%. Conversely, the percentage of 65-74 year-olds has decreased from 6.7% to 5.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in McGraths Hill, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age group (101%), adding 387 residents and reaching a total of 770.