McGraths Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in McGraths Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of McGraths Hill is around 2,668, reflecting a 131 person increase since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 5.2% rise from the previous figure of 2,537 people. AreaSearch's analysis, based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date, suggests a resident population of 2,366 for McGraths Hill, translating to a density ratio of 863 persons per square kilometer. This rate is comparable with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 5.2% growth positions it within 2.6 percentage points of the state's average growth of 7.8%. Natural growth contributed approximately 48.0% to overall population gains, while overseas and interstate migration also played positive roles.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are adopted. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, McGraths Hill is projected to grow by 1,558 persons, reflecting an increase of 47.1% in total over the 17-year period, placing it within the top 10 percent of national areas for growth.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees McGraths Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, McGraths Hill has experienced around 3 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Approximately 16 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 7.7 new residents arriving per year per dwelling constructed during these years.

Consequently, demand significantly exceeds new supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value for new dwellings is $522,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $154,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus in McGraths Hill. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill has significantly less development activity. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. Nationally, this level of development is below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development in McGraths Hill has been entirely comprised of detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 435 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, McGraths Hill is expected to grow by 1,256 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

McGraths Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Newpark Estate, Pitt Town Bypass, and Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill. The following details those most relevant:.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals McGraths Hill recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

McGraths Hill has a diverse workforce with equal representation of white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 6.3% as per AreaSearch's statistical area aggregation. As of December 2025, 1,469 residents are employed, with the unemployment rate at 2.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 86.7%, above Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census data shows that 28.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employs 2.4 times the regional average but professional & technical services lag behind Greater Sydney's figures at 4.0%.

The area may lack local job opportunities as indicated by resident-to-working population ratio. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.3%, employment dropped by 1.7%, raising unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McGraths Hill's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, McGraths Hill's median income among taxpayers is $61,127. The average income in the suburb is $74,204. This places McGraths Hill above the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for McGraths Hill's median income are approximately $66,543 as of September 2025. The estimated average income by that date is around $80,778. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in McGraths Hill cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 39.7% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income in McGraths Hill. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

McGraths Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In McGraths Hill, as per the most recent Census, 92.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in McGraths Hill stood at 28.8%, similar to the Sydney metro average, with mortgaged properties at 50.5% and rented ones at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,392, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in McGraths Hill was $450, slightly higher than the Sydney metro figure of $470. Nationally, McGraths Hill's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rent is substantially above the national figure of $375.

McGraths Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.0% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

McGraths Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area has university qualification rates of 15.3%, which is significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (33.7%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.7%), secondary education (7.4%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

McGraths Hill has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 420 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 111 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 28.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 60 trips per day, resulting in approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

McGraths Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

McGraths Hill's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,500 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 7.7 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has 11.0% of residents aged 65 and over (293 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings higher than those of the general population.

McGraths Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McGraths Hill, as per the 2016 Census, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 87.9% born in Australia and 92.3% being citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 92.5% of residents. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 57.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.6%), English (28.3%), and Scottish (7.7%). Notably, Maltese ancestry was overrepresented at 2.7% compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Russian ancestry was slightly higher at 0.5%, though this difference is less pronounced than that for Maltese. Conversely, Lebanese ancestry was underrepresented at 1.2% against a regional average of 2.6%.

McGraths Hill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At age 34, McGraths Hill's median age is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and considerably younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (8.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.4%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 11.8% to 13.2%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 has decreased from 6.7% to 5.4%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in McGraths Hill. The strongest projected growth is in the 25-34 age cohort, with an increase of 62%, adding 241 residents to reach a total of 628.