McGraths Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in McGraths Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the McGraths Hill statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 2,593 people. This figure reflects an increase of 56 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,537 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,366, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 839 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, McGraths Hill has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the state. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilized. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period 2025 to 2041, placing McGraths Hill (SA2) in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 2,049 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 80.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in McGraths Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows McGraths Hill averaged approximately one new dwelling approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated eight homes. As of FY-26, four approvals have been recorded. This averages to about 14.9 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $522,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

There have also been $154,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill records markedly lower building activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. However, development activity has picked up recently. This is below average nationally, suggesting possible planning constraints. All new construction in the area has been detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 746 people. Future projections indicate McGraths Hill adding approximately 2,085 residents by 2041, potentially leading to housing supply lagging behind population growth if current construction levels persist, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

McGraths Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Two key projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Melonba Woolworths Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Newpark Estate, Pitt Town Bypass, and Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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The employment landscape in McGraths Hill shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

McGraths Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with high representation.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.6%. This is 1.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, but workforce participation is higher at 71.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment levels are particularly high at 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.0%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, McGraths Hill's labour force increased by 0.5% while employment declined by 0.2%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts, published in May-25, project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McGraths Hill's current employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of McGraths Hill has a higher income level than the national average, according to AreaSearch data aggregated from the latest Australian Taxation Office figures for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in McGraths Hill is $61,127, with an average income of $74,204. This compares to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on the Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes for McGraths Hill would be approximately $66,543 (median) and $80,778 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in McGraths Hill are at the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment comprises 39.7% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,029 residents), which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income in McGraths Hill, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

McGraths Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In McGraths Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan areas which had 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in McGraths Hill stood at 28.8%, with mortgaged properties at 50.5% and rented ones at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,392, lower than the Sydney metro average of $3,000. The median weekly rent in McGraths Hill was $450, compared to $600 in Sydney metropolitan areas. Nationally, McGraths Hill's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,392 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McGraths Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.0% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.3.

McGraths Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (33.7%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in McGraths Hill shows that there are 41 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 28 individual routes providing service to the area. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 420.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 111 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 60 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

McGraths Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout McGraths Hill. Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is found to be very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,458 people), compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.7 and 7.0% of residents respectively, while 72.9% declare themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 79.5% across Greater Sydney. As of 31 December 2020, the area has 11.7% of residents aged 65 and over (303 people), which is higher than the 9.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

McGraths Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McGraths Hill, as per the census conducted on 28 August 2016, exhibited below-average cultural diversity. The population born in Australia constituted 87.9%, with 92.3% being citizens and 92.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 57.9% of McGraths Hill's population, compared to Greater Sydney's 55.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.6%), English (28.3%), and Scottish (7.7%). Notably, Maltese (2.7%), Russian (0.5%), and Lebanese (1.2%) ethnicities had higher representations than the regional averages of 2.9%, 0.3%, and 1.0% respectively.

McGraths Hill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McGraths Hill's median age is 34, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, McGraths Hill has a higher percentage of 0-4 year-olds (8.5%) but fewer 65-74 year-olds (5.8%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.8% to 13.0%, while the 75-84 cohort has grown from 3.4% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 6.7% to 5.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in McGraths Hill, with the strongest growth projected for the 25-34 age group (96%), adding 376 residents to reach a total of 768.