Box Hill (NSW)

Box Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Box Hill (NSW) is around 18,208. This figure represents a significant increase from the 2021 Census count of 6,450 people. The population growth of 11,758 people since the census reflects an increase of 182.3%. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 17,132 in June 2025, which was based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and the validation of an additional 3,227 new addresses since the Census date. The current population density is 2,009 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth exceeded both state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney averages, marking Box Hill as a growth leader in the region.

Interstate migration contributed approximately 90.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas over the period. By 2041, the area's population is expected to grow by 22,562 persons, reflecting a total gain of 118.0% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Box Hill was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Box Hill has experienced around 715 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 3,576 homes were approved, with an additional 405 so far in FY-26. On average, about 3 people move to the area per year for each dwelling built during this period.

This significant demand exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $494,000, indicating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $17.1 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill has 166.0% more construction activity per person, creating greater choice for buyers despite recent easing of construction activity. This is substantially higher than the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 81.0% detached houses and 19.0% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 99.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Box Hill reflects a developing area, with around 16 people per approval. Future projections, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, show Box Hill adding approximately 21,486 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Box Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include Box Hill Square, Stockland The Gables, The Hills of Carmel, and Stockland Halcyon Gables. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Box Hill shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Box Hill's workforce is highly educated with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 4.4% as of December 2015. In December 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Box Hill was similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 47.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services. Construction employment is notably high at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food employs only 3.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.8%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Box Hill's labour force increased by 1.8%, while employment declined by 0.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Box Hill suburb has median taxpayer income of $65,674 and average income of $77,422 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is above national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $72,452 (median) and $85,412 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. In Box Hill, household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between 93rd and 95th percentiles according to 2021 Census figures. Income distribution shows that 38.4% of locals (6,991 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% fall within this range. A substantial proportion, 47.0%, earn above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity. High housing costs consume 20.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Box Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Box Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill stood at 10.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (69.7%) or rented (20.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, above Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in Box Hill was $580, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Box Hill's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 92.0% of all households, including 59.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 8.0%, with lone person households at 6.7% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Box Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

In Box Hill, educational attainment is notably high among residents aged 15 and above, with 47.2% holding university qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area, positioning it well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.9% and certificates make up 17.0%.

Educational participation is particularly high in Box Hill, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Box Hill has 94 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 39 different routes that together facilitate 1,746 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Box Hill being primarily residential. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 85%, while train use stands at 10%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 47.1% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 249 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Box Hill's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (~10,471 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.9 and 4.0% of residents respectively. 83.0% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Only 4.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (728 people), lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

Box Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill has a significant cultural diversity, with 45.5% of its population born overseas and 47.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Box Hill, accounting for 48.2% of the population. Hinduism, however, is notably overrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, comprising 15.5% of Box Hill's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (21.5%), Australian (16.4%), and English (14.3%). Notably, Filipino ethnicity is overrepresented at 6.7%, Indian at 11.1%, and Sri Lankan at 1.3% compared to regional averages of 2.0%, 3.6%, and 0.3% respectively.

Box Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Box Hill has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Hill has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (25.8%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.9%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 15-24 has grown from 8.7% to 11.8%, while those aged 45-54 have increased from 9.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 has declined from 20.6% to 13.8%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Box Hill's age profile will change significantly. The number of residents aged 15-24 is projected to increase substantially, from 2,148 to 9,160, an expansion of 7,011 people (326%).