North Kellyville

North Kellyville lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, North Kellyville's population is around 22,775 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 5,374 people (30.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,401 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 21,403 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 955 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,846 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North Kellyville's 30.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 66.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 11,381 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 43.7% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in North Kellyville was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

North Kellyville has recorded around 468 residential properties granted approval each year, with 2,344 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 48 so far in FY-26. With an average of 3.8 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average construction value of $205,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options. There have also been $238,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has similar development levels (per person), supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. This activity is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 196 people per dwelling approval, North Kellyville shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, North Kellyville is expected to grow by 9,956 residents through to 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

North Kellyville has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 21 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Bellerive Rise Estate, North Kellyville Shopping Centre, Rouse Hill Town Centre Expansion, and Rouse Hill Hospital, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in North Kellyville exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

North Kellyville possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.5%. As of December 2025, 12,313 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (78.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 54.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employs just 3.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force increased by 0.0% while employment declined by 1.0%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 1.0 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within North Kellyville. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to North Kellyville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The North Kellyville SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The North Kellyville SA2's median income among taxpayers is $75,942 and the average income stands at $93,720, which compares to figures for Greater Sydney's of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $82,670 (median) and $102,024 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in North Kellyville, between the 91st and 97th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the predominant cohort spans 34.0% of locals (7,743 people) in the $4000+ category, unlike trends in the metropolitan region where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 52.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 19.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 96th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

North Kellyville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within North Kellyville, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 82.6% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within North Kellyville was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 13.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (58.3%) or rented (27.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,250, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $600, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, North Kellyville's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Kellyville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 88.9% of all households, comprising 60.7% couples with children, 19.2% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 11.1%, with lone person households at 9.5% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size of 3.3 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Kellyville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in North Kellyville significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 47.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 30.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (14.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.4% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 79 active transport stops operating within North Kellyville, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 42 individual routes, collectively providing 2,876 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 214 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 84%, with 8% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 54.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 410 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Kellyville's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for North Kellyville residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with the prevalence of common health conditions remaining low across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 68% of the total population (15,373 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 5.5% and 4.2% of residents, respectively, while 83.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 9.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,122 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

North Kellyville is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

North Kellyville scores highly on cultural diversity, with 44.5% of its population born overseas and 44.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in North Kellyville is Christianity, which makes up 46.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 11.8% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in North Kellyville are Other, comprising 20.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 16.2% of the population, and English, comprising 14.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Indian is notably overrepresented at 11.0% of North Kellyville (vs 3.6% regionally), Korean at 1.5% (vs 1.1%) and South Australian at 1.2% (vs 0.5%).

North Kellyville's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

At 34 years, North Kellyville's median age is somewhat lower than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and similarly considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (18.2%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (9.4%). This 5 - 14 concentration is well above the national 12.1%. Since the 2021 Census, residents have aged by 1.1 years on average, with the median rising from 33 to 34. Specifically, the 45 to 54 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.6% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.4% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 9.4% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 9.3% to 6.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for North Kellyville. The 55 to 64 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 170%, adding 2,924 residents to reach 4,644. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 group will contract by 194 residents.