North Kellyville

North Kellyville lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

North Kellyville's population was approximately 22,830 as of May 2026. From the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,401, there has been an increase of 5,429 people (31.2%). This growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,392 in June 2025 and an additional 959 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 2,853 persons per square kilometer, placing North Kellyville in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North Kellyville's growth of 31.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing North Kellyville in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 10,382 persons, reflecting a total increase of 43.5% over the 16 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in North Kellyville was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

North Kellyville has recorded approximately 468 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 2,344 homes were approved, with an additional 61 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 3.8 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years.

This indicates that supply is lagging behind demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average expected construction cost of new homes in North Kellyville is around $205,000, which is below regional norms, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, there have been $238,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus in the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has 14.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 69th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

This suggests strong developer confidence in the location despite lower development activity relative to the region. The composition of new development in North Kellyville is 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 196 people per dwelling approval, it shows characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, North Kellyville is expected to grow by approximately 9,922 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand in the foreseeable future, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

North Kellyville has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Bellerive Rise Estate, North Kellyville Shopping Centre, Rouse Hill Town Centre Expansion, and Rouse Hill Hospital. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in North Kellyville exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

North Kellyville has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%. As of December 2025, there are 12,313 residents employed, which is 0.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 75.4%, exceeding Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 54.1% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Finance & insurance employs a disproportionately high share of local workers at 1.3 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing employs only 3.5%, below Greater Sydney's 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force in North Kellyville remained unchanged at 0.0% growth while employment declined by 1.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Kellyville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The North Kellyville SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $75,942 and the average income stood at $93,720, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $83,779 (median) and $103,392 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in North Kellyville, between the 91st and 97th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 34.0% of locals (7,762 people) fall within the $4000+ category, unlike metropolitan trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 52.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 96th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

North Kellyville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in North Kellyville, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.6% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in North Kellyville stood at 13.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.3% and rented ones at 27.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, North Kellyville's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Kellyville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.9% of all households, including 60.7% couples with children, 19.2% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.1%, with lone person households at 9.5% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Kellyville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

North Kellyville's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 47.2% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and New South Wales' 32.2%. This educational advantage is evident in the prevalence of bachelor degrees (30.1%), postgraduate qualifications (14.5%), and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.1% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (14.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.4% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Kellyville has 79 active public transport stops serving buses. These stops are covered by 42 different routes, offering a total of 2,876 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 214 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from this residential area. Cars are the primary mode of transport at 84%, while trains account for 8%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 54.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 410 trips per day, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in North Kellyville is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

North Kellyville shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 68% of the total population (15,410 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.5 and 4.2% of residents respectively. 83.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 8.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,018 people), which is lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

North Kellyville is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

North Kellyville has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.5% of its population born overseas and 44.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in North Kellyville, making up 46.5% of the population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented, comprising 11.8% of the population compared to the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), Australian (16.2%), and English (14.9%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences in representation: Indian is at 11.0% (regional average: 3.6%), Korean at 1.5% (regional average: 1.1%), and South Australian at 1.2% (regional average: 0.5%).

North Kellyville's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

North Kellyville's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.0%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is above the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2021 Census and now, North Kellyville's median age has increased by 1.1 years to 34 years. The 45 to 54 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.9%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 11.4% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 14.0% to 10.0%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 9.3% to 6.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in North Kellyville, with the 55 to 64 cohort projected to grow by 172%, adding 2,848 residents to reach 4,508. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 age group is forecasted to decrease by 171 residents.