Kellyville - East

Kellyville - East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Kellyville - East stands at approximately 17,589 in May 2026. This represents a reduction of 120 individuals (0.7%) from the 17,709 residents recorded during the 2021 Census. The estimate is derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 17,584 in June 2025 alongside 136 validated new addresses registered after the Census. The local population density reaches 3,064 persons per square kilometer, placing the area in the top quartile of all Australian locations analyzed. The primary driver of population growth has been overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 72.1% of the total demographic gains in recent times.

Projections for each SA2 region are based on 2024 releases from the ABS and Geoscience Australia using 2022 as the base year, supplemented by 2022 NSW State Government projections with a 2021 base year where necessary. Growth rates by age group from these models are extended to cover the period from 2032 to 2041. Future expectations suggest population expansion in the lower quartile nationally, with the locality projected to add 499 residents by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP figures, translating to an overall growth rate of 2.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kellyville - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Approximately 25 residential approvals are granted annually in Kellyville - East, totaling 128 dwelling approvals during the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 83 registered during FY-26 so far. This rate of construction is relatively sufficient given the recent population decline, presenting favorable conditions for home buyers. The average estimated construction value of these new dwellings is $532,000, indicating a developer focus on high-end, premium housing. Additionally, commercial development approvals total $2.2 million for the current financial year, pointing to a market that remains overwhelmingly residential.

Building approvals in Kellyville - East are significantly lower than the wider Greater Sydney region, trailing the metropolitan average per capita by 85.0%. While this restricted supply generally acts as a support for the pricing and demand of pre-existing homes, building activity has shown recent signs of acceleration. The volume of approvals is also below the national average, reflecting a mature market that may face geographical or regulatory development limits. Detached houses account for 95.0% of recent construction projects, with the remaining 5.0% consisting of townhouses or apartments, preserving a traditional family-oriented suburban landscape. The ratio of 452 people per approved dwelling highlights the maturity of the local market.

Demographic projections indicate that Kellyville - East will add 494 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. The current pace of residential development suggests that upcoming housing supply will easily accommodate this demand, sustaining favorable purchasing conditions and potentially paving the way for expansion beyond current population forecasts.

Kellyville - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The progression of an area is heavily guided by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning policies. AreaSearch has tracked 26 projects poised to affect the locality. Key developments of relevance include the William Clarke College - Bryson Building, the Withers Road Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, the Hills Showground Station Precinct, and the Kellyville Station Precinct, with details provided on those of highest significance.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Kellyville - East ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

A highly qualified labor force characterizes Kellyville - East, with a strong presence of professionals, a low unemployment rate of 3.4%, and consistent employment metrics over the past year. In March 2026, the employed population numbered 10,053 residents, while the unemployment rate sat 0.8% below the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. The participation rate is recorded at 73.2%, compared to 69.1% across Greater Sydney. Census data indicates that 51.9% of the local workforce operated from home, though these figures may be influenced by pandemic-related lockdowns.

The major employment industries for local residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The education & training sector is particularly prominent, employing residents at 1.2 times the metropolitan average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing represents a minor share of employment at 3.2%, compared to the regional benchmark of 5.3%. A comparison between the resident workforce and locally available positions indicates that this mostly residential enclave provides few local jobs.

An analysis of SALM and ABS figures by AreaSearch reveals that the labor force contracted by 0.2% and total employment fell by 0.4% over the 12-month period, leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This contrasted with Greater Sydney, where employment and labor force both expanded by 1.9%, resulting in a slight decline in unemployment. National forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 provide a benchmark for future demand in Kellyville - East, showing projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these sector-specific national trajectories to the local occupational mix suggests employment for the area could grow by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this calculation is a basic weighted projection that does not account for localized population trends.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Based on the latest ATO postcode statistics for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Kellyville - East SA2 recorded a median income of $71,478 and an average income of $88,211, representing exceptionally high figures on a national scale compared to the Greater Sydney median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates for March 2026 stand at roughly $78,855 for the median and $97,314 for the average. The 2021 Census placed weekly household incomes in the 97th percentile at $3,051. The local earnings distribution is dominated by the $4000+ weekly bracket, which accounts for 33.4% of residents (5,874 people), whereas the broader metropolitan region is led by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 30.9%. Financial capacity is highlighted by the 50.9% of households earning more than $3,000 weekly, which underpins local retail spending. Although residential overheads consume 15.2% of income, strong local earnings position disposable income in the 96th percentile, and the area is situated in the 10th decile of the SEIFA income rankings.

Kellyville - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The local housing stock at the time of the latest Census consisted of 92.4% detached houses and 7.6% alternative dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or other structures, contrasting with the Sydney metropolitan breakdown of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in Kellyville - East stood at 30.1%, matching the Sydney metropolitan benchmark, with the remaining residential properties occupied by mortgage holders (53.3%) or renters (16.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the locality was $2,900, significantly higher than the Sydney metro median of $2,427, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $650, compared to $470 across metropolitan Sydney. On a national level, mortgage outlays in Kellyville - East are far higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent payments exceed the national median of $375.

Kellyville - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families comprise the vast majority of households at 90.6%, consisting of couples with children at 60.3%, couples without children at 20.4%, and single parents at 9.4%. Non-family households represent the remaining 9.4%, with single-person households at 8.3% and group shared homes at 1.0%. The median household size of 3.3 individuals is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kellyville - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The educational profile of the area is distinct, with university graduation rates of 40.4% among residents aged 15 and over, surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the state average for NSW of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees represent the most common tertiary qualification at 26.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 11.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational and technical training is also well represented, with 27.4% of the population aged 15 and over holding qualification credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 15.4%.

Enrolment in academic institutions is high, with 33.8% of the local population engaged in formal study. This student population includes 11.1% attending primary schools, 10.6% enrolled in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing higher education programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport options shows 94 active transit stops operating within Kellyville - East, consisting of various bus options. These stops are connected to 102 distinct routes, which generate 3,216 weekly passenger trips. Transport convenience is rated highly, with local residents living an average of 190 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute out of the area, with private vehicles serving as the primary transport mode at 88% and trains accounting for 6%. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.9 cars, higher than the regional average. The 2021 Census noted that 51.9% of residents worked from home, which may reflect conditions during the pandemic.

Across all transit lines, service frequency averages 459 trips per day, which translates to roughly 34 weekly trips at each individual transit stop.

Kellyville - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health indicators show excellent results for Kellyville - East in AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality and chronic disease data, revealing very low rates of common illnesses across all age cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is exceptionally high, with approximately 65% of the population (11,468 people) holding coverage, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical issues reported locally, affecting 6.2% and 5.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 77.6% of the population reported no long-term medical conditions, higher than the 74.6% average for Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and older make up 14.3% of the community (2,520 people), which is below the Greater Sydney average of 15.5%. While older residents show strong health metrics, their national rankings are slightly lower than those of the younger local population.

Kellyville - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kellyville - East exhibits a high level of cultural diversity, with 39.4% of the population born outside Australia and 37.0% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 58.2% of the local population. The most distinct religious overrepresentation in the area is Hinduism, which represents 7.2% of residents compared to 5.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of parent country of birth, the primary ancestral backgrounds in Kellyville - East are Australian at 18.3%, English at 17.8%, and Other at 14.8%. There are also notable differences in the concentration of other backgrounds compared to the wider region, with Korean ancestry representing 1.7% of the area (compared to 1.1% regionally), South Australian at 1.2% (compared to 0.5%), and Sri Lankan at 1.0% (compared to 0.3%).

Kellyville - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Kellyville - East is 38 years, which is close to the Greater Sydney median of 37 and matches the Australian median of 38. The suburb has a higher proportion of residents in the 45 - 54 age bracket (16.2%) but a lower share of 25 - 34 year-olds (7.7%) relative to Greater Sydney. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 15.2% to 16.5% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 3.7% to 4.9%. In contrast, the 5 to 14 age group fell from 16.0% to 14.6%, and the 35 to 44 cohort declined from 15.6% to 14.5%. By 2041, demographic shifts are expected to alter the age profile of the area. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 83% (713 people), growing from 860 to 1,574 residents. This aging trend is prominent, with individuals aged 65 and over accounting for 69% of the projected population growth. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 55 to 64 and 0 to 4 age groups.