North Kellyville

North Kellyville lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Nov 2025, North Kellyville's estimated population is around 22,422. This reflects an increase of 5,021 people (28.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,401. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 21,403 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 848 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,778 persons per square kilometer, placing North Kellyville in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North Kellyville's growth rate since the 2021 census exceeded both state (7.6%) and metropolitan area averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over this period, with North Kellyville expected to increase by 11,381 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 46.0% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in North Kellyville was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

North Kellyville recorded approximately 468 residential properties approved annually, with around 2,344 homes approved between FY-21 and FY-25, and another 43 in FY-26. On average, about 3.8 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years. This indicates substantial demand outstripping supply, likely leading to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures.

Developers target the premium market segment, with an average construction value of $823,000 for new dwellings. In FY-26, commercial development approvals amounted to $238,000, reflecting North Kellyville's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has similar development levels per capita, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. Recent construction consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban identity dominated by family homes.

With around 194 people per approval, North Kellyville is a developing area. Future projections estimate an addition of 10,309 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, presenting favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

North Kellyville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Bellerive Rise Estate, Rouse Hill Town Centre Expansion, Rouse Hill Hospital, and Verde Estate North Kellyville. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in North Kellyville demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

North Kellyville has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, there are 12,404 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 73.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Finance & insurance has a higher representation with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.5% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. In the past year (2024-2025), employment increased by 1.0%, labour force by 1.5%, raising unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Kellyville's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023, North Kellyville's median income among taxpayers is $71,629. The average income in the suburb is $90,086. Nationally, these figures are high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates for North Kellyville would be approximately $77,975 (median) and $98,068 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in North Kellyville rank highly nationally, between the 91st and 97th percentiles. In terms of income distribution, 34.0% of individuals in North Kellyville earn more than $4,000 per week, which is different from the broader area where the majority earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week. The suburb shows considerable affluence with 52.6% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 19.4% of income in North Kellyville, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 96th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

North Kellyville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

North Kellyville's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.6% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in North Kellyville stood at 13.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.3% and rented ones at 27.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,000. The median weekly rent in North Kellyville was $600, matching Sydney metro's figure but significantly higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, North Kellyville's mortgage repayments were higher at $3,250 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

North Kellyville features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 88.9% of all households, including 60.7% couples with children, 19.2% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 11.1%, with lone person households at 9.5% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

North Kellyville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

North Kellyville's educational attainment is notably high, with 47.2% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 26.1% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas being 12.1% and certificates 14.0%. Educational participation is high, with 36.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 14.4% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Kellyville has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together facilitate 2,876 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average located 214 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 410 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Kellyville's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

North Kellyville shows excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 62% of its total population of 14,004 people have private health cover, higher than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.5 and 4.2% of residents respectively. A total of 83.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 79.5% in Greater Sydney. As of the latest data (August 2021), 8.8% of North Kellyville's population is aged 65 and over, comprising 1,973 people. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, mirroring the overall population's health profile.

North Kellyville is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

North Kellyville has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.5% of its population born overseas and 44.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in North Kellyville, comprising 46.5% of the population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 11.8% of North Kellyville's population versus 8.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), Australian (16.2%), and English (14.9%). Some ethnic groups have notable divergences in representation: Indian is overrepresented at 11.0% compared to the regional average of 7.2%, South African is represented at 1.2% versus 1.0%, and Sri Lankan at 1.0% versus 0.8%.

North Kellyville's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

North Kellyville's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.1%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of North Kellyville's population aged 45 to 54 has increased from 12.0% to 14.2%, while the proportion of those aged 15 to 24 has risen from 11.4% to 13.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 14.0% to 10.1%, and the proportion of those aged 0 to 4 has fallen from 9.3% to 6.7%. Population forecasts for North Kellyville in 2041 suggest significant demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth in the 55 to 64 age group (184%), adding 3,007 residents to reach a total of 4,644. In contrast, the numbers in the 35 to 44 age range are expected to decrease by 215.