North Kellyville

North Kellyville lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of North Kellyville is estimated at 22,775 as of Feb 2026, reflecting an increase of 5,374 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 17,401. This growth represents a 30.9% increase and places North Kellyville in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth exceeded both state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney figures, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. Population projections for North Kellyville indicate exceptional growth over the next 15 years, with an expected expansion of 11,381 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 43.7%.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 11,381 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting with an increase of 43.7% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in North Kellyville was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

North Kellyville recorded around 468 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 2,344 homes were approved, with an additional 43 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 3.8 new residents arrived per year per dwelling constructed during this period.

This indicates substantial demand outstripping supply, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers target the premium market segment, with new dwellings valued at an average of $823,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $238,000, reflecting North Kellyville's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

Recent construction comprises 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity focused on family homes. With around 194 people per approval, North Kellyville is a developing area. Future projections estimate an addition of 9,956 residents by 2041, based on current development patterns. This suggests that new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

North Kellyville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Bellerive Rise Estate, Rouse Hill Town Centre Expansion, Rouse Hill Hospital, and Verde Estate North Kellyville. The following details projects expected to have substantial relevance.

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Employment conditions in North Kellyville demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

North Kellyville has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 12,404 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 79.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses indicate that 54.1% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Finance & insurance has a particularly high employment share, at 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.5% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.0%, while labour force grew by 1.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that North Kellyville's employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023. North Kellyville's median income among taxpayers was $71,629, with an average of $90,086. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,030. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes would be approximately $77,975 (median) and $98,068 (average). According to the 2021 Census, North Kellyville's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 91st and 97th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 34.0% earn over $4,000 weekly (7,743 individuals), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. The suburb shows affluence with 52.6% earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and services. High housing costs consume 19.4% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 96th percentile. North Kellyville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

North Kellyville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As per the most recent Census evaluation, in North Kellyville, 82.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in North Kellyville stood at 13.7%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 58.3% and rented ones making up 27.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, surpassing Sydney's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in North Kellyville was recorded at $600, higher than Sydney's $470 average. Nationally, North Kellyville's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Kellyville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.9% of all households, including 60.7% that are couples with children, 19.2% that are couples without children, and 8.6% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 11.1%, with lone person households at 9.5% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Kellyville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

North Kellyville's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. As of a recent report, 47.2% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This high level of educational attainment positions North Kellyville favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (14.0%). Educational participation is notably high in North Kellyville, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.4% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Kellyville has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 42 different routes that together provide 2,876 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 214 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 84%, while 8% use trains. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 54.1% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 410 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Kellyville's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

North Kellyville's health outcomes data shows excellent results, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (14,225 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.5 and 4.2% of residents respectively. 83.2% of residents report being completely free of medical ailments, higher than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. North Kellyville has 9.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,118 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

North Kellyville is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

North Kellyville has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.5% of its population born overseas and 44.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in North Kellyville, making up 46.5% of people. Hinduism is significantly overrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, comprising 11.8% of North Kellyville's population versus 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), Australian (16.2%), and English (14.9%). Notably, Indian ethnicity is overrepresented at 11.0%, compared to the regional average of 3.6%. South African ethnicity is also notably higher at 1.2% versus 0.5%, and Sri Lankan ethnicity stands out at 1.0% against a regional average of 0.3%.

North Kellyville's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

North Kellyville's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Kellyville has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.4%). This 5-14 concentration is significantly higher than the national average of 12.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, residents have aged by an average of 1.1 years, with the median age rising from 33 to 34. The 45 to 54 age group has increased from 12.0% to 14.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 11.4% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 9.4%, and the 0 to 4 group has dropped from 9.3% to 6.3%. Population forecasts for North Kellyville in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 55 to 64 age group is projected to grow by 172%, adding 2,935 residents to reach a total of 4,644. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 age group is expected to decrease by 200 residents.