Oakville

Oakville has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Oakville is around 2,783 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 756 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,027 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,716 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 647 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 183 persons per square kilometer. Oakville's growth rate of 37.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the state's growth rate of 7.8%. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 2,962 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 104.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Oakville among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Oakville has experienced around 103 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 515 homes. So far in FY26, recorded approvals amount to 95. Over these five years, an average of 0.3 new residents per new home has been arriving annually.

Supply is meeting or surpassing demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $522,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, commercial approvals have reached $11.7 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oakville has seen slightly more development, at 24.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period ending FY25.

This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values. The area's development activity is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 99.0% standalone homes and 1.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Oakville's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 13 people per dwelling approval, Oakville shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Oakville adding approximately 2,895 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Oakville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Ridgehaven Estate Box Hill, Box Hill Public School and High School, Box Hill Square, and Multiple Residential Subdivisions Box Hill. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment performance in Oakville has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Oakville has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in Oakville is 6.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 1,184 residents employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Oakville is lower at 55.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census responses indicate that a high proportion of residents, 32.2%, work from home, although this could be attributed to Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The leading employment industries among Oakville residents include construction, retail trade, and manufacturing. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in construction employment, with an employment share 2.7 times higher than the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.0% of local workers, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 14.1%. While there are employment opportunities within Oakville, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels remained stable at 0.0%, while employment declined by 1.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Oakville. These projections suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across different industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Oakville's employment mix indicates that local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Oakville's median income is $56,844 and average income is $69,005. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Oakville would be approximately $61,880 (median) and $75,119 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks Oakville's household incomes at the 86th percentile ($2,368 weekly). In terms of earnings profile, 29.3% of Oakville residents fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range (815 individuals), similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Notably, 38.8% of residents earn above $3,000/week, indicating strong economic capacity in the suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 88.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Oakville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Oakville, as per the latest Census evaluation, 98.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 1.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oakville stood at 54.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent median was $600 in Oakville, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Oakville's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oakville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.7% of all households, including 47.2% couples with children, 28.9% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.3%, with lone person households at 13.8% and group households comprising 0.7%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Oakville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oakville has 18 active public transport stops operating within the town. These stops are served by a total of 32 routes, offering 231 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents generally located about 569 meters from their nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 93%, while walking accounts for 5% of commutes. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 32.2%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages about 33 trips per day, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Oakville's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows excellent health outcomes across Oakville. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high, at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,508 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and asthma (6.2%). 71.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Oakville has a higher proportion of seniors (22.0%, or 612 people) than Greater Sydney (15.4%). Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Oakville records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oakville's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 83.1% born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 86.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Oakville at 75.5%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (25.2%), English (24.1%), and Maltese (14.9%), each higher than regional averages of 17.8%, 19.0%, and 1.0% respectively.

Notable differences exist in the representation of Croatian (1.3% vs 0.7%), Lebanese (1.4% vs 2.6%), and Italian (5.3% vs 3.4%) ethnic groups.

Oakville hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Oakville has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 11.9% of Oakville's population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.3%. Post-2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has risen from 13.8% to 15.3%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 6.1% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has decreased from 4.2% to 3.2%. Demographic projections indicate Oakville's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 45-54 group expected to grow by 103%, reaching 843 people from 414.