Castle Hill (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Castle Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Castle Hill (NSW) is around 45,080. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census population of 40,874 people, marking a growth of 4,206 people or approximately 10.3%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 42,391, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 1,909 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,391 persons per square kilometer, placing Castle Hill (NSW) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth of 10.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.6% and the state's growth rate. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase, with the suburb expected to grow by 17,316 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 31.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Castle Hill among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Castle Hill shows approximately 793 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 3,969 homes. In FY26 so far, 430 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home between FY21 and FY25 is around 0.1, indicating that new construction is keeping pace with demand. The average value of new dwellings developed is $454,000, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year has seen $139.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Castle Hill has 104.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering buyers more choice. This is significantly above the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the area. The current building activity shows 7.0% detached houses and 93.0% townhouses or apartments, a notable shift from the existing housing pattern of 74.0% houses. With around 43 people per dwelling approval, Castle Hill is classified as a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 14,332 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Castle Hill will gain 14,332 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Castle Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 63 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Castle Towers Expansion, Castle Hill Panorama, Hills Showground East Precinct, and Castle Grange. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Castle Hill demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Castle Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.6% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%. As of June 2025, 22,403 residents were in work and workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's rate of 60.0%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing showed lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1% while labour force increased by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.3% over ten years. Applying these projections to Castle Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Castle Hill is among the highest in Australia. The median assessed income is $59,536 while the average income stands at $87,995. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $67,043 (median) and $99,091 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 91st percentile ($2,551 weekly). Looking at income distribution, 29.2% of the population (13,163 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. A significant 43.1% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 90th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Castle Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Castle Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 73.8% of dwellings were houses while 26.2% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differed slightly from Sydney's metropolitan area which had 78.2% houses and 21.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Castle Hill stood at 36.7%, similar to the Sydney metro average. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 39.2% and rented ones made up 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, mirroring the Sydney metro average, while median weekly rent was $560 compared to Sydney's $3,000 and $580 respectively. Nationally, Castle Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Castle Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 82.8% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.9% and group households comprising 1.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational achievement in Castle Hill places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Castle Hill's educational attainment is notably high, with 47% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 29.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.6% and graduate diplomas at 3.1%. Vocational pathways account for 24.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 12.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education. Fourteen schools serve 9,712 students in the area, which has a socio-educational advantage index (ICSEA) of 1123. The educational mix includes seven primary, five secondary, one K-12 school, and one specialist school for specific learning needs. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 21.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.3, indicating Castle Hill serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Castle Hill has 248 active public transport stops, serving a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are connected by 236 individual routes, offering 9,596 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 172 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 1,370 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Castle Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Castle Hill exhibits excellent health outcomes across various age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 62% of the total population (27,787 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 63.7%. Nationally, this figure averages at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Castle Hill are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.4 and 5.8% of residents respectively. Notably, 75.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 75.9%. In terms of demographics, Castle Hill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.5% (9,241 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 18.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Castle Hill are strong and largely align with the general population's health profile.

Castle Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Castle Hill's population shows high linguistic diversity, with 43.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 45.4% of Castle Hill residents were not born in Australia. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 52.6%.

Hinduism, while lower than Greater Sydney's average (8.6%), is overrepresented at 6.6%. The top three ancestral groups are English (17.2%), Chinese (16.2%), and Australian (15.6%). Korean (2.8%) and Sri Lankan (0.9%) ethnicities show notable overrepresentation compared to regional averages of 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively, while Indian ethnicity is underrepresented at 5.9%.

Castle Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Castle Hill is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 45-54 years shows strong representation at 14.5%, compared to the same group in Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 8.0%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.2% of Castle Hill's population, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 14.5% to 13.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Castle Hill, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 41%, adding 2,693 people to reach a total of 9,230 from the current figure of 6,536.