Dural (Hornsby - NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025 the estimated population of the suburb of Dural (Hornsby - NSW) is around 8,215. This reflects an increase of 315 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,900 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 8,088 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 240 persons per square kilometer. Dural's growth rate of 4.0% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 3.2%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 560 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 5.6% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dural according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Dural averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 166 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. This averages to about 1.4 people moving to the area per dwelling built annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $1,097,000, reflecting a focus on premium segment development.

In FY26, Dural has recorded approximately $17.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional averages over the past five years, Dural records somewhat elevated construction activity at 16.0% above average per person. This supports good buyer choice and maintains existing property values.

Recent construction comprises approximately 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Dural's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The area reflects a low-density population of around 336 people per approval. Future projections estimate Dural will add about 457 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Dural has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Dural Town Centre, New Line Road Upgrade, Dural Town Centre, and South Dural Urban Renewal. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Dural shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Dural has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year.

There are currently 4,237 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. Major industries for Dural residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Notably, construction employment is particularly high, with a share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented, accounting for only 2.9% of Dural's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, while labour force grew by 3.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that Dural has one of the highest incomes nationally. The median income is $58,062 and the average income stands at $118,526. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Dural would be approximately $65,384 (median) and $133,472 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Dural rank at the 90th percentile with a weekly income of $2,489. The earnings profile shows that 29.6% of the population earns over $4,000 per week, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Dural demonstrates considerable affluence with 42.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 90th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Dural, as per the latest Census, comprised 80.2% houses and 19.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had a dwelling structure of 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Dural was 46.1%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (15.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Dural was $3,033, higher than the Sydney metro average of $3,000. The median weekly rent in Dural was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $520. Nationally, Dural's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9 percent of all households, including 45.6 percent couples with children, 25.4 percent couples without children, and 9.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1 percent, with lone person households at 17.8 percent and group households comprising 1.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Dural shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The educational profile of the Dural area is notable within its region, with 37.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, surpassing both the SA3 area average of 29.9% and Australia's national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 12.2% while certificates account for 18.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in secondary education, 9.5% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Dural, educating approximately 2,589 students. The area exhibits above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1094), with a mix of educational institutions including one primary school and five K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs in the area, with 31.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 25.4, suggesting Dural serves as an educational hub for its broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Dural shows that there are currently 94 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 144 individual routes providing service to these locations. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 2,070.

Residents in Dural have good access to public transport, with an average distance of 263 meters to the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 295 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Dural is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Dural demonstrates above-average health outcomes with young and old age cohorts showing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (6,045 people), compared to 77.1% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 71.8% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.3% across Greater Sydney.

As of 2016, 23.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,914 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Dural are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Dural was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural's population shows higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 34.2% born overseas and 28.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Dural, accounting for 62.3%, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 65.5%. The top three ancestry groups are English (22.4%), Australian (18.7%), and Other (9.9%).

Notably, Lebanese (4.5% vs regional 3.6%), Sri Lankan (1.1% vs 0.4%), and South African (1.0% vs 0.7%) groups are overrepresented in Dural compared to the region.

Dural hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Dural is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (9.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 13.2% to 14.3%, while the 75-84 age group increased from 8.0% to 9.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 15.3% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Dural's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 105%, reaching 708 people from 346. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting Dural's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 45-54 and 25-34 age groups are projected to decrease in number.