Dural (Hornsby - NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Dural (Hornsby - NSW) was estimated at around 8,482 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 582 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,900 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,952 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 248 persons per square kilometer. Dural's growth rate of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.3%. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 519 persons to 2041, reflecting a decline of 0.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dural according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Dural averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 167 homes. As of FY26, 20 approvals have been recorded. With around 1.4 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, the supply-demand balance appears stable.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $1,097,000, indicating a focus on premium segment development. This financial year has seen $12.6 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting moderate levels of commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional average, Dural records 16.0% higher construction per person over the past five years.

The area maintains a traditional low-density character with 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% townhouses or apartments. This results in an estimated 351 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Dural may face less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Dural has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Dural Town Centre, New Line Road Upgrade, and Hills Shire Council's Delivery Program and Operational Plan for Infrastructure Works from 2024 to 2025. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Dural recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Dural has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate in Dural is 5.1%, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 4,125 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.1% compared to Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Dural is lower at 65.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 49.3% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Construction employment is particularly high, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, transport, postal & warehousing employment is under-represented at 2.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, Dural's labour force decreased by 0.3%, while employment declined by 1.4%, resulting in a rise of unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Dural is among the top percentile nationally. The median income is $58,062 while the average income stands at $118,526. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Dural would be approximately $63,206 (median) and $129,027 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Dural rank at the 90th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,489. The earnings profile shows that 29.6% of the population (2,510 individuals) fall within the $4,000+ income range, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Dural demonstrates considerable affluence with 42.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 90th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dural's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.2% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Dural was 46.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.7% and rented ones at 15.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,033, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Dural was $600, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Dural's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Dural shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 37.3%, higher than the SA3 area average of 29.9% and Australia's national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (18.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes secondary education (10.7%), primary education (9.5%), and tertiary education (6.9%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 107 active public transport stops in Dural, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 145 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,718 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically situated 263 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 89%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 49.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 388 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Dural's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Dural, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts, with common health conditions having a low prevalence. The rate of private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (6,241 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents showed notably healthy outcomes with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,018 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Dural was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural's population showed significant cultural diversity, with 34.2% born overseas and 28.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Dural, accounting for 62.3%, compared to 49.2% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (22.4%), Australian (18.7%), and Other (9.9%).

Notably, Lebanese (4.5%) and Sri Lankan (1.1%) populations exceeded regional averages of 2.6% and 0.3%, respectively, while South Australian residents (1.0%) were slightly higher than the regional average of 0.5%.

Dural hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 13.2% to 14.6%, while the 75-84 age group grew from 8.0% to 9.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 15.3% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Dural's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 80%, reaching 687 people from 381. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for all of Dural's population growth, reflecting its aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in number.