Dural (Hornsby - NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Dural (Hornsby, NSW) is estimated to be around 8,482 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 582 people from the 7,900 reported in the 2021 Census, representing a growth of 7.4%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,952 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and validation of an additional 58 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 248 persons per square kilometer. Dural's growth exceeded that of its SA3 area at 5.3%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where ABS data is not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 564 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dural according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Dural averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 167 homes. As of FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions.

The average construction value per property was $1,097,000, suggesting a focus on premium segment developments. In FY-26, $12.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural's construction level is 16.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values.

Recent construction comprises 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 351 people, reflecting Dural's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate suggest Dural will add approximately 194 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Dural has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include Dural Town Centre, New Line Road Upgrade, and Hills Shire Council Delivery Program and Operational Plan 2024-2025 Infrastructure Works. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Dural has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Dural has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 4.6%. Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability.

As of September 2025, 4,145 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Dural is lower at 65.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 49.3% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction.

Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 2.9%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.4% while employment decreased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while overall employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Dural's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Dural's median income among taxpayers is $58,062. The average income in the suburb is $118,526. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Dural as of September 2025 would be approximately $63,206 (median) and $129,027 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Dural rank exceptionally at the 90th percentile with $2,489 weekly. Income analysis reveals that 29.6% of the community falls within the $4,000+ earnings band (2,510 individuals), differing from broader area patterns where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 42.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 90th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Dural, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.2% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dural stood at 46.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (15.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Dural's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.9% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Dural shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 37.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 29.9% and the national average of Australia at 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 18.2%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes secondary education (10.7%), primary education (9.5%), and tertiary education (6.9%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 107 active public transport stops in Dural, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 145 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,718 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically situated 263 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 89%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 49.3% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 388 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Dural's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Dural, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (6,241 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 71.8% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents demonstrate low chronic condition prevalence. Dural has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,018 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, with national rankings broadly aligned with the general population.

Dural was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 34.2% born overseas and 28.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dural, accounting for 62.3%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestral groups were English (22.4%), Australian (18.7%), and Other (9.9%), which was lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Lebanese (4.5%) and Sri Lankan (1.1%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Dural compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 0.3%, respectively. South African ethnicity also showed a higher representation at 1.0% in Dural versus the regional average of 0.5%.

Dural hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (9.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 13.2% to 14.5%, while the 75-84 age group grew from 8.0% to 9.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 15.3% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Dural's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 86%, reaching 695 people from 373. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 45-54 age groups are projected to decrease in number.