Dural (Hornsby - NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Dural (Hornsby - NSW) is estimated at around 7,922 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 22 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,900 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,920, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 232 persons per square kilometer. Dural's growth rate of 0.3% since census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.1%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 450 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 5.7% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dural according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Dural averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 167 homes. As of FY26, 25 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built, suggesting supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $1,097,000, indicating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY26, $12.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural records somewhat elevated construction activity, at 17.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although recent periods show moderated development activity.

Recent construction comprises 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 345 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate suggest Dural will add 448 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Dural has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by modifications to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified twenty-five projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable among these are the Dural Town Centre project, the Hills Shire Council Infrastructure Delivery Program spanning from 2025 to 2026, and the South Dural Urban Renewal initiative. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Dural has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Dural has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 5.2%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 4,019 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, which is 1.0% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Dural stands at 63.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 49.3% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 2.9%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.9% and employment decreased by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. Dural's median income among taxpayers was $58,062, with an average of $118,526. Nationally, this is exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%, current estimates for Dural are approximately $64,054 (median) and $130,758 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Dural rank at the 90th percentile ($2,489 weekly). Income analysis shows that 29.6% of the community earns $4,000 or more (2,344 individuals), differing from broader area patterns where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 42.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 90th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dural's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 80.2% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dural was at 46.1%, with the rest either mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (15.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Dural was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Dural was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Dural's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Dural shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 37.3% of residents aged 15+, surpassing both the SA3 area average of 29.9% and Australia's national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.2% and certificates for 18.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes secondary education (10.7%), primary education (9.5%), and tertiary education (6.9%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dural has 107 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 145 different routes, together providing 2,718 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Dural is rated as good, with residents typically living 263 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outwards. Cars are the primary mode of transportation, used by 89% of residents, while 5% walk. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 49.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 388 trips per day, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Dural's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Dural's health metrics performed strongly across various indicators assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low for both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (5,829 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (7.1%) and asthma (5.9%), while 71.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. Dural has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.7% (1,877 people), compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were strong and broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Dural was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural's population is more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 34.2% born overseas and 28.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Dural, accounting for 62.3%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (22.4%), Australian (18.7%), and Other (9.9%), which is lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Lebanese (4.5%) and Sri Lankan (1.1%) populations are overrepresented in Dural compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 0.3%, respectively. South Australian population at 1.0% also exceeds the regional average of 0.5%.

Dural hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 13.2% to 15.1%, while the 75-84 age group grew from 8.0% to 9.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 age cohort declined from 15.3% to 14.0%, and the 35-44 age group decreased from 10.1% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Dural's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 92%, reaching 668 people from 348. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting Dural's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.