Dural (Hornsby - NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Dural (Hornsby - NSW) statistical area (Lv2), as estimated by AreaSearch, is around 8,478 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 578 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,900. The increase is inferred from the resident population of 7,952 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 248 persons per square kilometer. The Dural (Hornsby - NSW) (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 7.3% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, exceeding the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.3%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Dural (Hornsby - NSW) (SA2) is expected to grow by 559 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dural according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Dural shows an average of around 33 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 167 homes. As of FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. The area has seen an average of 1.4 people moving to it per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $1,097,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment.

In FY-26, $12.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has shown elevated construction activity, with 16.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although recent periods have seen a moderation in development activity.

Recent construction comprises 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The estimated population count per dwelling approval in Dural is 351 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 193 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Dural has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Twenty-five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Dural Town Centre, New Line Road Upgrade, Hills Shire Council Delivery Program and Operational Plan 2024-2025 Infrastructure Works. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Dural has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Dural has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 4.7% based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 4,148 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors in Dural include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.5%, while employment decreased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Dural's median income among taxpayers is $58,062, with an average of $118,526. This is notably higher than national figures and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $63,206 (median) and $129,027 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Dural's household incomes rank at the 90th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,489. Income analysis shows that 29.6% of the community earns over $4,000 annually (2,509 individuals), differing from broader area patterns where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates at 30.9%. Strong earnings are supported by 42.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, indicating elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income, with residents ranking in the 90th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Dural, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dural stood at 46.1%, similar to Sydney metro's rate. The rest of the dwellings were either mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (15.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Dural was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Dural was recorded at $600, compared to Sydney metro's $520. Nationally, Dural's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Dural shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 37.3% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA3 area average of 29.9% and the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 9.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 18.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in secondary education, 9.5% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 107 active transport stops in Dural, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 145 individual routes, offering a total of 2,718 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents usually located 263 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 388 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Dural is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Dural demonstrates above-average health outcomes with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (6,238 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 71.8% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.3% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 23.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,975 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Dural are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Dural was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural's population showed high cultural diversity, with 34.2% born overseas and 28.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dural as of 2021, accounting for 62.3%, compared to 65.5% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (22.4%), Australian (18.7%), and Other (9.9%).

Notably, Lebanese ethnicity was higher at 4.5% in Dural than the regional average of 3.6%. Similarly, Sri Lankan ethnicity stood at 1.1%, surpassing the regional average of 0.4%. South African ethnicity also showed a higher representation in Dural with 1.0%, compared to the regional average of 0.7% as of 2021.

Dural hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (9.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 13.2% to 14.3%, while the 75-84 age group grew from 8.0% to 9.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 15.3% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Dural's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 99%, reaching 708 people from 356. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for all of Dural's population growth, reflecting its aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in number.