Pennant Hills - Cheltenham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's population is 22,618 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 881 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,737. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 22,147 in June 2024 and 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,701 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 4.1% growth since census is within 2.8 percentage points of its SA3 area (6.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is expected to decline by 189 persons according to these projections, but growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group with a projected increase of 799 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pennant Hills-Cheltenham averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 290 homes. As of FY26, 38 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.5 new residents per year arrived with each new home between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these properties was $554,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market.

In FY26, $23.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing moderate commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Pennant Hills-Cheltenham has markedly lower building activity, 63.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 376 people per dwelling approval, Pennant Hills-Cheltenham indicates a developed market. Given expected population stability or decline, housing pressure in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham should remain relatively low, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Thirty-two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Among these key projects are Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Beecroft Place (formerly Beecroft Module Shopping Centre), and Thornleigh Quarter. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of September 2025. The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 10.4% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 13,025 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 73.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 58.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area has a strong specialization in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.4% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 10.4%, while labour force grew by 9.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising slightly by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.4% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Pennant Hills - Cheltenham SA2 has top percentile national incomes. The median is $66,163 and average is $98,313. Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 and average is $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median will be approximately $72,025 and average $107,024, based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 indicates household, family, and personal incomes rank between 82nd and 95th percentiles nationally for Pennant Hills - Cheltenham. The $4000+ income bracket dominates with 33.4% of residents (7,554 people). In metropolitan regions, 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 47.0% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income, and residents rank in the 95th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Pennant Hills-Cheltenham's dwellings were 79.9% houses and 20.2% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other') in the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% others. Home ownership was 41.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.9% and rented at 19.6%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was $530, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.8 percent of all households, including 46.8 percent couples with children, 25.8 percent couples without children, and 8.4 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.2 percent, with lone person households at 16.7 percent and group households comprising 1.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham exceeds broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 54.2% of residents aged 15 years and over held university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in New South Wales. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 32.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational pathways accounted for 21.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 10.4%.

Educational participation was notably high, with 32.3% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This included 10.9% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 7.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has 148 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 122 routes, serving 8,358 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 206 meters from the nearest stop. It is primarily residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the dominant mode at 78%, followed by train at 12% and walking at 4%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 58.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,194 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 56 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has excellent health outcomes. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Approximately 70% of the total population (15,923 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (6.7%) and asthma (6.3%). 73.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly lower than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (4,663 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.3%. Senior health outcomes are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pennant Hills-Cheltenham has a high cultural diversity, with 38.1% of its population born overseas and 35.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham, comprising 50.6%. Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 5.5% vs 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.6%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (15.2%), the latter being substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Korean is notably overrepresented at 2.3%, Sri Lankan at 0.9%, and Russian at 0.6% compared to regional averages of 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 5-14 years make up 14.6% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 7.1%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of individuals aged 15-24 has grown from 12.4% to 14.0%, while the percentage of those aged 25-34 has decreased from 7.9% to 7.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's age structure. The number of individuals aged 75-84 is expected to increase by 694 people (42%), from 1,642 to 2,337. Notably, the combined population growth for those aged 65 and above will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, populations aged 45-54 and 15-24 are expected to decline.