Pennant Hills - Cheltenham
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is approximately 22,389 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 652 people, a 3.0% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 21,737. The change is inferred from the ABS's estimated resident population of 22,155 in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,684 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's growth rate of 3.0% since census is within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's population is expected to decline by 189 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group which is projected to expand by 799 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has received approximately 58 dwelling approvals per year on average. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 290 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25, with 9 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Over the past five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 0.5 people have moved to the area per dwelling built. This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value for new properties in the area is $599,000, slightly higher than the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $23.9 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has significantly lower building activity, 63.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction consists of 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 376 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area with a stable or declining population expected in the future, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Beecroft to Cheltenham Shared Pathway, and Beecroft Village Green Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The exceptional employment performance in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham has an educated workforce with a notable presence in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 12.7% over the past year. As of June 2025, 13,262 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 62.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing had lower representation at 2.4% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally might be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 12.7% while labour force grew by 11.4%, reducing unemployment by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.5%. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 showed employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) and the state unemployment rate was 4.3%, favourably compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.4% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Pennant Hills - Cheltenham had a median income among taxpayers of $62,752. The average income stood at $96,377. This places it in the top percentile nationally compared to median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively across Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year ending June 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $69,404 for median income and $106,593 for average income. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham rank between the 82nd and 95th percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 33.4% earning over $4000 weekly (7,477 residents), unlike broader trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500-$2,999 range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 47.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in the community. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 95th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Pennant Hills-Cheltenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 79.9% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 60.5% houses and 39.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham was 41.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (38.9%) or rented (19.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,817. The median weekly rent was $530, compared to Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Pennant Hills-Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,000 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.8% of all households, including 46.8% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households at 1.5%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 54.2% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are most common at 32.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational pathways account for 21.0% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (10.4%) being the most prevalent.

Educational participation is high, with 32.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 7.2% pursuing tertiary education. There are approximately 6,974 students educated across a network of 10 schools in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1148). Education provision is balanced with 6 primary and 3 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. One specialist school addresses specific learning needs. Pennant Hills-Cheltenham functions as an education hub, with 31.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 17.5. This attracts students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in the Pennant Hills - Cheltenham area shows that there are currently 113 active transport stops operating. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 122 individual routes providing passenger trips. There are 6,426 weekly passenger trips across these routes.

The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 207 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency reaches 918 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Pennant Hills - Cheltenham. Prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. Private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (15,627 people), compared to 62.5% across Greater Sydney and 55.3% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.7% and 6.3% of residents respectively. 73.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.1% across Greater Sydney. 20.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,616 people), higher than the 17.2% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pennant Hills-Cheltenham has a high level of cultural diversity, with 38.1% of its population born overseas and 35.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Pennant Hills-Cheltenham is Christianity, accounting for 50.6% of the population. Notably, Hinduism is overrepresented at 5.5%, compared to 7.9% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (20.6%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (15.2%), which is lower than the regional average of 24.9%. There are notable disparities in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Korean is overrepresented at 2.3% compared to the regional average of 5.4%, Sri Lankan is slightly higher at 0.9% versus 0.7%, and Russian is also higher at 0.6% against the regional average of 0.4%.

Pennant Hills - Cheltenham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 years make up 14.6%, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 7.1%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.4% to 14.0%, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 7.9% to 7.1%. By 2041, projections indicate significant shifts in Pennant Hills - Cheltenham's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to increase by 44%, from 1,625 to 2,337 people. Notably, all population growth will come from the combined 65+ age groups, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, the 45-54 and 15-24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.