Carlingford

Population growth drivers in Carlingford are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Carlingford is approximately 30,260, reflecting a growth of 2,216 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 7.9% rise from the previous population figure of 28,044. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 29,704 in June 2024 and an additional 376 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,547 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlingford in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Notably, the suburb's growth rate exceeded the state average of 7.8% during this period. The primary driver for this population growth was overseas migration, which accounted for approximately 83.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest that Carlingford is expected to grow at a rate just below the median of national areas. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is anticipated to gain approximately 4,239 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 12.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carlingford among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlingford saw approximately 273 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending FY-25, totalling an estimated 1,369 homes. As of FY-26333 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates around 1.2 new residents per year. This indicates a balanced supply and demand dynamic in the market for new properties, which are being constructed at an average expected cost of $1,040,000, catering primarily to the premium segment.

In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $1.4 million have been registered, reflecting the area's residential focus. New developments consist of 16.0% detached houses and 84.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 58.0% houses. This trend suggests decreasing developable land availability and responds to changing lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. With around 112 people per dwelling approval, Carlingford exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

By 2041, it is projected that Carlingford will add approximately 3,635 residents, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond existing projections.

Carlingford has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

A total of 25 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. These include upgrades to Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School, The Carling development by Meriton, upgrades to Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road, and the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carlingford demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Carlingford has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector notably represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in September 2025, compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.0%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 16,592 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. However, the unemployment rate was 1.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate. A high proportion, 51.1%, of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns.

The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Conversely, construction was under-represented at 7.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%. Employment opportunities locally might be limited, as indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.0%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlingford's industry-specific mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median income in Carlingford is $48,999 and average income is $68,200. This differs from Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Carlingford would be approximately $53,340 (median) and $74,243 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 71st percentile ($2,084 weekly), while personal income is at the 47th percentile. The income distribution shows that 33.5% earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (10,137 individuals). Notably, 30.5% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carlingford displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carlingford's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.1% houses and 42.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Sydney metro's 58.1% houses and 42.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlingford stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.9% and rented ones at 33.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Carlingford was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carlingford's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carlingford features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.4% of all households, including 49.1% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.6%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Carlingford places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Carlingford's residents aged 15+ have a higher university qualification rate of 48.5%, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational pathways account for 22.0%, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 11.1%. Educational participation is high, with 32.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 6.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford has 181 active public transport stops, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 72 individual routes, providing a total of 4,269 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 142 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car is the dominant mode of transport at 81%, followed by train at 9% and bus at 7%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.4, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 51.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 609 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Carlingford's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlingford's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions have very low prevalence across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population (~16,310 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Asthma and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 4.8 and 4.7% of residents respectively. 79.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Carlingford has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (5,567 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Carlingford is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford, as per the 2016 Census, has a population where 56.8% were born overseas. A total of 66.0% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 40.1%.

Buddhism, at 6.2%, is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's 4.1%. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (35.5%), Other (14.6%), and English (10.8%). Korean (6.0%) and Indian (5.3%) are notably overrepresented, while Lebanese (1.7%) is underrepresented compared to regional averages.

Carlingford's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Carlingford is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 years (10.4%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 increased from 8.8% to 9.9%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 11.5% to 10.4%. By 2041, Carlingford's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow by 56%, reaching 2,831 from 1,815. The population growth dynamics show that those aged 65 and above will comprise 56% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts.