Carlingford

Population growth drivers in Carlingford are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Carlingford statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 30,276. This reflects a growth of 2,232 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 28,044. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 29,704 as of June 2024 and an additional 371 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,549 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlingford (SA2) in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's growth rate of 8.0% since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 7.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Carlingford (SA2) is projected to experience above median population growth, increasing by 4,240 persons to reach a total of 34,516 by 2041. This reflects an overall gain of 11.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carlingford among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Carlingford experienced around 273 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,369 homes. As of FY-26333 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), approximately 1.2 people moved to the area per dwelling built annually. Current development patterns show minimal commercial activity, with $1.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year.

Recent construction comprises 16.0% standalone homes and 84.0% townhouses or apartments, differing significantly from existing housing patterns (58.0% houses). Carlingford displays growth area characteristics, with around 112 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, AreaSearch projects a population increase of 3,619 residents. Based on current development trends, new housing supply is expected to meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth.

Looking ahead, Carlingford is expected to grow by 3,619 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carlingford has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects. AreaSearch has identified a total of 25 such projects that could impact the area. Notable among these are the upgrades to Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School, The Carling development by Meriton, the upgrade of Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road, and the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Carlingford ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Carlingford has an educated workforce with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, showing 3.0% employment growth.

As of September 2025, 16,588 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 60.0%. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training, while construction has limited presence at 7.3% compared to the regional average of 8.6%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. In the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, labour force by 3.3%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point unemployment rise. Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. State-level data for NSW up to 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying by industry sector. Applying these projections to Carlingford's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 on June 15, 2023. In Carlingford, the median income among taxpayers was $48,999 with an average of $68,200. These figures align with national averages and compare to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,340 (median) and $74,243 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 71st percentile ($2,084 weekly), with personal income at the 47th percentile. The largest segment comprises 33.5% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (10,142 residents). Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 30.5% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carlingford displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Carlingford's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.1% houses and 42.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership stood at 31.3%, with 34.9% of dwellings mortgaged and 33.8% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, while the median weekly rent was $500. Nationally, Carlingford's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carlingford features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 3.0 people

Family households constitute 83.4% of all households, including 49.1% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise 16.6%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people.

Educational achievement in Carlingford places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Carlingford's educational attainment is notably higher than national and state averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 48.5% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). This significant educational advantage positions Carlingford favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 15.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%.

Vocational pathways account for 22.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.9% and certificates 11.1%. Educational participation is notably high in Carlingford, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford has 181 active public transport stops. These include a mix of lightrail and bus services. There are 72 individual routes operating, providing a total of 4,269 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 142 meters. Services run an average of 609 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per stop.

Carlingford's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Carlingford, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 54% (~16,318 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 4.8 and 4.7% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 79.4%, report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney. Carlingford has 17.7% (5,358 people) of residents aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Carlingford is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford has a culturally diverse population, with 56.8% born overseas and 66.0% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 40.1%. Buddhism is notably overrepresented at 6.2%, compared to none across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (35.5%), Other (14.6%), and English (10.8%). Korean (6.0%), Lebanese (1.7%), and Indian (5.3%) groups are also notably overrepresented in Carlingford compared to the regional averages of none for each group.

Carlingford's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Carlingford is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 65-74 grew from 8.8% to 9.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 decreased from 11.5% to 10.8%. By 2041, Carlingford's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 61%, reaching 2,821 people from 1,756. The population aged 65 and above is expected to comprise 58% of the total growth. Conversely, declines in population are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups.