Carlingford

Carlingford lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carlingford's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 29,880. This reflects an increase of 1,836 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 28,044. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 29,741 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 371 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,502 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlingford in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, the suburb has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 2.0% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the metropolitan area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Carlingford is projected to grow by 4,244 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 13.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carlingford among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlingford saw around 272 new homes approved per year from FY-18 to FY-22. In total, an estimated 1,362 homes were approved over these five financial years. As of FY-26, 23 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodated around 1.2 new residents per year.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand in the area, with stable market dynamics. The average construction cost value for new properties was $1,040,000 during this period, indicating a focus on premium segment development. In FY-26, $1.2 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Detached houses accounted for 16.0% and attached dwellings made up 84.0% of new developments between FY-18 and FY-22, marking a shift from the existing housing pattern of 58.0% houses.

This trend may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 110 people per dwelling approval, Carlingford exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is projected to increase by 4,019 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting further population growth beyond current projections.

Carlingford has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 25 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones are: Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School Upgrade (commencing Q1 2023), Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade (scheduled for completion in late 2024), The Carling by Meriton (expected to be finished by mid-2025), and Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development (planned for commencement in early 2026). Below is a list of those most relevant.

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The labour market in Carlingford shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Carlingford has a highly educated workforce with the technology sector being particularly well-represented. The unemployment rate in Carlingford is 2.5%, which is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5% based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 16,506 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Sydney's rate and workforce participation similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among Carlingford residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training.

However, construction is under-represented at 7.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5% and labour force increased by 3.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carlingford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes that does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median assessed income in Carlingford is $48,990 and average income is $68,181. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates are approximately $55,168 (median) and $76,779 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 71st percentile ($2,084 weekly), while personal income is at the 47th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.5% of Carlingford's population (10,009 individuals). A significant 30.5% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carlingford displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carlingford's housing stock, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.1% houses and 42.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership in Carlingford stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.9% and rented ones at 33.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, matching Sydney metro's average. Median weekly rent was $500, higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Carlingford's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Carlingford features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 3.0 people

Family households constitute 83.4% of all households, including 49.1% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.6%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people.

Educational achievement in Carlingford places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Carlingford is notably high, with 48.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications. This exceeds national (30.4%) and NSW state averages (32.2%). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational pathways account for 22.0% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 11.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Carlingford, educating approximately 7,568 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1121. Educational provision is balanced, with five primary and four secondary schools serving distinct age groups. There are 25.3 school places per 100 residents, indicating strong educational infrastructure supporting both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford has 160 active public transport stops. These include lightrail and bus services. There are 72 routes in total, offering 3,435 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 142 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is 490 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlingford's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results throughout Carlingford, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (around 16,102 people). Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 4.8% and 4.7% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 79.4%, report being completely free of medical ailments compared to 0% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, approximately 17.7% of Carlingford's population is aged 65 and over (around 5,288 people). Health outcomes among seniors align closely with the overall population's health profile.

Carlingford is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford's population is culturally diverse, with 56.8% born overseas and 66.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion at 40.1%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.2%, compared to none in Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (35.5%), Other (14.6%), and English (10.8%). Korean, Lebanese, and Indian ethnicities are notably overrepresented at 6.0%, 1.7%, and 5.3% respectively, compared to none regionally.

Carlingford's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Carlingford as of 2021 was 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford had a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 65-74 grew from 8.8% to 9.5%. Conversely, the population aged 25-34 decreased from 11.5% to 10.8%. By 2041, Carlingford is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. The number of residents aged 75-84 is expected to grow by 63%, reaching 2,821 from 1,733. This growth will contribute significantly to the overall increase in the population aged 65 and above, which is projected to comprise 56% of the total population growth. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the populations aged 0-4 and 5-14.