Ermington

Ermington lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The suburb of Ermington had an estimated population of 12,064 as of May 2026, indicating a decrease of 622 people since the 2021 Census which recorded 12,686 residents. This decline is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,043 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 38 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stood at 3,125 persons per square kilometer, placing Ermington in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for the suburb. AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ermington is projected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with an expected increase of 8,403 persons, reflecting a total increase of 69.5% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Ermington was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Ermington has seen approximately 173 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 868 homes were approved, with an additional 446 approved in FY26 so far. On average, each new home attracts about 1.9 new residents per year over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics.

The average construction cost of new dwellings is $453,000, slightly above the regional average. This financial year has seen $34.1 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ermington has 36.0% more development per capita over this period, supporting current property values while offering buyer choice. This is significantly higher than the national average, reflecting robust developer interest in the area. New developments consist of 11.0% detached dwellings and 89.0% attached dwellings, favouring compact living to provide affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the existing housing composition (currently 60.0% houses) suggests decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyle needs.

Ermington has around 92 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates indicate Ermington's population is expected to grow by 8,382 residents. Construction pace is keeping up with projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers can be anticipated as the population grows.

Ermington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Melrose Park Urban Renewal Precinct, Melrose Central, Rivea Rydalmere, and others detailed below, which are considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Ermington retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.9%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Ermington has a well-educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 6,434 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 46.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. Ermington specialises in public administration & safety with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, but has lower representation in professional & technical at 9.7% compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Ermington's labour force decreased by 1.1%, with employment decreasing by 1.4%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Ermington's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Ermington's employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Ermington's median income at $54,100 and average income at $68,559. Greater Sydney's figures are a median of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. By March 2026, estimates suggest Ermington's median income will be approximately $59,683 and average income $75,634, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%. The 2021 Census places Ermington at the 58th percentile nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. In Ermington, 30.4% earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,667 residents), similar to the broader area where 30.9% fall into this bracket. High housing costs consume 19.4% of income in Ermington, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ermington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ermington's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 60.5% houses and 39.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ermington was at 22.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.9% and rented ones at 43.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ermington was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Ermington was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Ermington's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ermington has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.7% of all households, including 41.5% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 21.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ermington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Ermington trail regional benchmarks, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 42.7% in the SA3 area as of 2021 data. Bachelor degrees lead at 24.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (17.4%). Educational participation is notably high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the same period.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ermington has 77 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 25 different routes that collectively facilitate 2960 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 143 meters from the nearest transport stop. Ermington is predominantly residential and most commuters travel outward. Cars are the primary mode of transportation for commuting at 83%, while trains account for 7%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 46%, work from home, which may be attributed to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 422 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ermington is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Ermington demonstrates superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notably low across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 54% (~6,519 people) of Ermington's total population has private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.3% and 5.5% of residents respectively. Around 76.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. Ermington has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.2%, with 2,075 people in this age group compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Ermington is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ermington's cultural diversity is notable with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 49.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 53.8% of Ermington's population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 6.1% versus 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.9%), Australian (15.7%), and Chinese (15.1%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Korean (6.3%) and Lebanese (5.1%) are notably overrepresented compared to the regional averages of 1.1% and 2.6%, respectively, while Filipino representation at 2.3% is slightly above the regional average of 2.0%.

Ermington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Ermington is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ermington has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (16.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2016 Census on 9 August and the 2021 Census on 10 August, the percentage of Ermington's population aged 75 to 84 increased from 3.9% to 5.4%, while those aged 65 to 74 increased from 8.2% to 9.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 15.6% to 11.9%. By 2041, Ermington's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 59%, reaching 3,236 people from the previous count of 2,038.