Carlingford - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carlingford - East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carlingford - East's population was 11,622 as of August 2021. By June 2024, it had increased to approximately 11,991. This change reflects a rise of 372 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census. The growth is attributed to overseas migration, with no other significant drivers identified during recent periods. As of August 2025, the population has further increased to around 11,994, indicating a continued trend of population growth in the area.

The population density ratio stands at approximately 3,215 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlingford - East in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Looking ahead, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for areas not covered, Carlingford - East is expected to experience population growth. By 2041, the area is projected to expand by 948 persons, resulting in a total gain of 7.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carlingford - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carlingford - East has recorded approximately 18 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 94 homes approved over the past five financial years (FY-20 to FY-25). Three residential properties have been approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY-20 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new dwellings was $688,000, moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, $883,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has significantly less development activity, with 63% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. New developments consist of approximately 52% detached dwellings and 48% medium and high-density housing, including a growing mix of townhouses and apartments, providing options across different price points.

Carlingford - East has around 285 people per approval, reflecting a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 945 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Carlingford - East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development, Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School Upgrade, The Carling by Meriton, and Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Carlingford - East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Carlingford - East has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of June 2025, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%. There were 6,746 residents employed while workforce participation stood at 57.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance (38.1%), professional & technical services (26.9%), and education & training (11.2%).

Transport, postal & warehousing employed only 3.3% of local workers, compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force rose by 3.1%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment stood at 4.5% with national employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlingford - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.2% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in Carlingford - East was $52,286 and average income stood at $75,516. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year ended June 2022 to March 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $57,828 and average income $83,521 as of March 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,143 weekly) and personal income at the 47th percentile. Income distribution shows 29.1% of locals (3,490 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, consistent with broader regional trends showing 30.9% in the same category. A substantial proportion, 34.2%, earn above $3,000/week indicating strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. High housing costs consume 16.5% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile and SEIFA income ranking places Carlingford - East in the 9th decile.

Carlingford - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Carlingford - East, 66.8% of dwellings were houses while 33.2% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas' 57.3% houses and 42.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlingford - East stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 36.7% and rented ones accounting for 25.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, aligning with Sydney metro's average. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Carlingford - East was $520 compared to Sydney metro's $460. Nationally, Carlingford - East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carlingford - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.8% of all households, consisting of couples with children (49.2%), couples without children (22.0%), and single parent families (10.7%). Non-family households compose the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households at 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Carlingford - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carlingford-East is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 48.0% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.2% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 11.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education. The five schools in Carlingford-East have a combined enrollment of 2,970 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1106. Education provision is balanced with three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. As of the latest statistics, Carlingford-East functions as an education hub with 24.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford - East has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 38 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,931 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 275 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlingford - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlingford - East demonstrates excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover rate is high at approximately 57% (around 6,848 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 53.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.7% and 5.2% of residents respectively. A majority, 77.2%, report being free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.5% (2,455 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 16.6%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with the general population's health profile.

Carlingford - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford-East is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 52.7% of its population born overseas and 58.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlingford-East, making up 45.8% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably more prevalent here compared to Greater Sydney, with 5.8% vs 4.8%.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents are Chinese (30.5%), English (12.8%), and Australian (12.6%). Korean representation stands out at 6.6%, slightly higher than the regional average of 6.5%. Lebanese and Indian populations show significant differences, with 1.8% vs 3.8% for Lebanese and 4.9% vs 3.8% for Indians in Carlingford-East compared to Greater Sydney.

Carlingford - East's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carlingford-East's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford-East has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.3%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (8.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group increased from 9.1% to 10.3%, while the 55-64 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carlingford-East's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 91%, adding 732 residents to reach 1,536. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 83% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups.