Carlingford - East

Population growth drivers in Carlingford - East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Carlingford - East's population is approximately 12,232 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 610 people, a 5.2% rise from the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 11,622. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 11,991 in June 2024 and an additional 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,279 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlingford - East in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 5.2% growth since the census is within 2.6 percentage points of the state's (7.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with Carlingford - East expected to expand by 948 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 5.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carlingford - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carlingford - East has seen approximately 46 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 234 homes were granted approval, with an additional 15 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 0.9 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or even exceeding demand, providing more buying options and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost of new properties in the area is $486,000, suggesting a focus on premium segment development. In FY26 alone, $883,000 worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has significantly less development activity, with 61.0% below the regional average per person.

This scarcity can typically strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. The mix of new building activity in Carlingford - East is approximately 52.0% detached dwellings and 48.0% medium to high-density housing. There's a growing variety of townhouses and apartments, offering options across different price points from family homes to more affordable compact living. With around 285 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits characteristics of low density. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Carlingford - East is projected to gain 707 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand readily, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carlingford - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development, The Carling by Meriton, Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School Upgrade, and Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Carlingford - East positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Carlingford - East has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.9%.

There were 6,746 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 2.1%, and workforce participation was equal to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 54.8% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

However, transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented at 3.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.9% while labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and an unemployment increase of 0.2 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlingford - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The latest postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median income in Carlingford - East SA2 is $56,083, with an average income of $78,201. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,052 (median) and $85,130 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks household income at the 74th percentile ($2,143 weekly), with personal income at the 47th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 29.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring regional levels where 30.9% fall into this bracket. High earners make up a substantial presence, with 34.2% earning over $3,000 weekly. Housing costs consume 16.5% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Carlingford - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carlingford - East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.8% houses and 33.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlingford - East stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.7% and rented ones at 25.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in Carlingford - East averaged $520, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially exceeded the national figure of $375.

Carlingford - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.8% of all households, including 49.2% composed of couples with children, 22.0% consisting of couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Carlingford - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carlingford-East is notably high, with 48.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of 2021 data. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.8%. Vocational pathways account for 22.2% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 11.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest census data. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford - East has 69 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 38 different routes that together facilitate 2,495 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 158 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 79% of residents, while 11% use trains. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 54.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 356 trips per day, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per stop.

Carlingford - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Carlingford - East, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is found to be very high at approximately 58% of the total population, which amounts to around 7,094 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.7% and 5.2% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 77.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Carlingford - East has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.4% (2,611 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Carlingford - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford-East, as of the latest data from 2016, has a population where 58.8% speak languages other than English at home and 52.7% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlingford-East, with 45.8%. Buddhism stands out at 5.8%, higher than Greater Sydney's average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Chinese is the most represented group at 30.5%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 8.4%. English ancestry is lower at 12.8% compared to the regional average of 19.0%, and Australian ancestry is also lower at 12.6% versus 17.8%. Notably, Korean ancestry is overrepresented at 6.6% (regional average: 1.1%), Lebanese at 1.8% (regional average: 2.6%), and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (regional average: 0.3%).

Carlingford - East's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carlingford - East's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.5% locally), but a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (8.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group increased from 9.1% to 10.5%, while the 15-24 cohort rose from 12.6% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carlingford - East's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 75%, adding 656 residents to reach 1,536. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 82% of the population growth, while the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to decline in population.