Carlingford - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carlingford - East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carlingford - East's population was around 11,994 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 372 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,622 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,991 in June 2024 and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 3,215 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to increase by 948 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 7.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carlingford - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carlingford - East has recorded approximately 46 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 234 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and three more so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five financial years is approximately 0.9. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $698,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, commercial approvals registered have a total value of $883,000, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has significantly less development activity, with approximately 61.0% fewer approvals per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes.

The current mix of new development consists of approximately 52.0% detached dwellings and 48.0% medium to high-density housing, including a growing number of townhouses and apartments, offering options across different price points from family homes to more affordable compact living. Carlingford - East reflects a low density area with around 285 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 945 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Carlingford - East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure can significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could affect the area. Notable projects include the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development, the upgrade of Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School, The Carling by Meriton, and the Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade. Below is a list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Carlingford - East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Carlingford East has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate is 2.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

As of June 2025, 6746 residents are employed. Workforce participation in Carlingford East is 57.3%, below Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for local employment are health care & social assistance (31.8%), professional & technical services (22.7%), and education & training (12.4%).

Transport, postal & warehousing employs only 3.3% of residents, compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. Between Jun-24 and Jun-25, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force by 3.1%, raising unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% with a 0.3 percentage point unemployment rise. State-wide in NSW as of Sep-25, employment contracted by 0.41%, unemployment rate is 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5%, with employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years (May 2025 - May 2030) and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlingford East's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.2% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Carlingford - East is $52,286 and average income is $75,516. In Greater Sydney, these figures are $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from June 2022 to March 2025, estimated median income is approximately $57,828 and average income is $83,521. Census data indicates household income rank at the 75th percentile ($2,143 weekly) and personal income rank at the 47th percentile. Income distribution shows 29.1% of locals (3,490 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 30.9%. A substantial proportion, 34.2%, earn above $3,000/week. High housing costs consume 16.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Carlingford - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carlingford - East, as per the latest Census evaluation, 66.8% of dwellings were houses, with 33.2% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments, compared to Sydney's metropolitan area which had 57.3% houses and 42.7% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Carlingford - East was higher at 37.8%, with the rest either mortgaged (36.7%) or rented (25.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, aligning with Sydney's metropolitan average, while the median weekly rent was $520, compared to Sydney's $460. Nationally, Carlingford - East's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,600 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 per week.

Carlingford - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 82.8% of all households, including 49.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.2%, consisting of 15.7% lone person households and 1.5% group households. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Carlingford - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carlingford-East is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 48.0% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.2% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 11.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education. The five schools in Carlingford-East have a combined enrollment of 2,970 students. The area shows significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1106. Educational provision is balanced, with three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. As an education hub, Carlingford-East has 24.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford - East has 62 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 38 unique routes that together facilitate 1,931 weekly passenger trips. The residential accessibility to public transport is rated excellent, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are approximately 275 daily trips and 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlingford - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlingford - East shows excellent health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across all ages. Private health cover is high here at approximately 57% (~6,848 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 53.7%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (5.7%) and asthma (5.2%), with 77.2% reporting no ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.3%. Residents aged 65+ make up 20.5% of the population (2,455 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 16.6%. Senior health outcomes align well with the general population's profile.

Carlingford - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford-East has a population with high overseas birth rate, at 52.7%. A majority, 58.8%, speak languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 45.8% of residents.

Buddhism's presence is notably higher here compared to Greater Sydney, representing 5.8% versus 4.8%. Top ancestry groups are Chinese (30.5%), English (12.8%), and Australian (12.6%). Korean representation stands out at 6.6%, while Lebanese is lower at 1.8% compared to regional averages of 6.5% and 3.8% respectively. Indian residents comprise 4.9% versus the regional average of 3.8%.

Carlingford - East's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carlingford-East has a median age of 41 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford-East has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.3%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (8.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group increased from 9.1% to 10.3%, while the 55-64 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carlingford-East's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 91%, adding 732 residents to reach 1,536. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 83% of the population growth, while the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to decline in population.