Carlingford - East

Population growth drivers in Carlingford - East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Carlingford - East's population was 11,622 according to the 2021 Census. By June 2024, it had increased to an estimated resident population of 11,991. This increase of 369 people (3.2%) is attributed to overseas migration and validated new addresses since the Census date. As of November 2025, the population is around 11,991, equating to a density ratio of 3,214 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth projections for the area anticipate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with an expected expansion of 948 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 7.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 948 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 7.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carlingford - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carlingford - East has recorded approximately 46 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25234 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved so far in FY-26. On average, around 0.9 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period, indicating that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average expected construction cost of these new properties is $486,000, suggesting a focus on premium segment development. In FY-26, $883,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has significantly less development activity, at 61.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

The mix of new building activity in Carlingford - East shows 52.0% detached dwellings and 48.0% medium and high-density housing. There is a growing trend towards townhouses and apartments, offering options across different price points from family homes to more affordable compact living. The area has around 285 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts suggest that Carlingford - East will gain approximately 948 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carlingford - East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development, Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School Upgrade, The Carling by Meriton, and Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Carlingford - East positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Carlingford - East has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of September 2025.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year. As of that date, 6746 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.1%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Carlingford - East was somewhat lower at 57.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. However, transport, postal & warehousing was under-represented with only 3.3% of the workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data analysis. Over a 12-month period, employment in Carlingford - East increased by 2.9%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov showed employment had contracted by 0.03% (losing 2260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, projected a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years for Australia. Applying these projections to Carlingford - East's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Carlingford - East SA2 is above average nationally. The median income is $52,286 and the average income stands at $75,516. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $56,994 with an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Carlingford - East SA2 would be approximately $58,879 (median) and $85,039 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,143 weekly), while personal income sits at the 47th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 29.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 34.2% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 74th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Carlingford - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carlingford - East, as per the latest Census evaluation, 66.8% of dwellings were houses, with 33.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 57.3% houses and 42.7% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Carlingford - East was 37.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (36.7%) or rented (25.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was $520, compared to Sydney metro's $460. Nationally, Carlingford - East's median mortgage repayments were higher at $2,600, while rents stood at $520, significantly above the Australian averages of $1,863 and $375 respectively.

Carlingford - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.8% of all households, including 49.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Carlingford - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carlingford - East is notably high, with 48.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This compares favourably to the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.7% and certificates 11.5%.

Educational participation is high in the area, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford - East has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 38 different routes that together facilitate 1,931 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 158 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 275 daily trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlingford - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlingford - East shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Approximately 57% (~6,846 people) have private health cover, higher than Greater Sydney's 53.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (5.7%) and asthma (5.2%). Around 77.2% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.5% (2,454 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 16.6%. Seniors' health outcomes are strong, mirroring the general population's profile.

Carlingford - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford-East, as per the 2016 Census, has a high level of cultural diversity. 58.8% of its population speaks a language other than English at home, and 52.7% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlingford-East, with 45.8% of people identifying as Christian.

Notably, Buddhism is more prevalent here at 5.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 4.8%. In terms of ancestry, Chinese is the most represented group at 30.5%, higher than Greater Sydney's 24.7%. English and Australian ancestries follow at 12.8% and 12.6% respectively. Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Korean at 6.6% (regional average 6.5%), Lebanese at 1.8% (vs regional 3.8%), and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (vs regional 0.5%).

Carlingford - East's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carlingford - East's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly above Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney's average, Carlingford - East has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.3%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (8.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group 65 to 74 has increased from 9.1% to 10.3%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carlingford - East's age profile. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 91%, adding 732 residents to reach a total of 1,536. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 83% of the population growth. Conversely, populations in the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are anticipated to decline.