Carlingford - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carlingford - East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carlingford - East's population is around 11,991 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 369 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,622 people. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 11,991 in June 2024 and additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,214 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with an expected expansion of 948 persons by 2041 based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 7.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carlingford - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carlingford - East has seen approximately 46 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 234 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY26. The area has experienced an average of 0.9 people moving in for each dwelling built over these years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $486,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment. In FY26, $883,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, highlighting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford - East has significantly less development activity, with 61.0% fewer approvals per person.

This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The mix of new building activity shows 52.0% detached dwellings and 48.0% medium and high-density housing. There is a growing variety of townhouses and apartments, offering options across different price points from family homes to more affordable compact living. With around 285 people per dwelling approval, Carlingford - East exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Carlingford - East will gain approximately 948 residents by the year 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carlingford - East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Carlingford Precinct Public Domain Plan & Parklands Development, Carlingford West Public School and Cumberland High School Upgrade, The Carling by Meriton, and Pennant Hills Road and North Rocks Road Upgrade. Below is a list of projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Carlingford - East significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Carlingford - East has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year. There were 6,746 residents in work during this period, with workforce participation at 57.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

However, transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented, with only 3.3% of Carlingford - East's workforce compared to 5.3% in Greater Sydney. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force grew by 3.1%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlingford - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.2% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Carlingford - East is above average nationally. The median income is $52,286 and the average income stands at $75,516. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Carlingford - East would be approximately $58,879 (median) and $85,039 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows that household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,143 weekly), while personal income sits at the 47th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 29.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 34.2% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Carlingford - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Carlingford - East, as evaluated at the latest Census on 28 August 2016, comprised 66.8% houses and 33.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 57.3% houses and 42.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlingford - East stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.7% and rented dwellings at 25.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, aligning with the Sydney metro average, while the median weekly rent figure was $520, compared to Sydney metro's $460. Nationally, Carlingford - East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of June 2021, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Carlingford - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.8% of all households, consisting of 49.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Carlingford - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carlingford - East is notably high, with 48% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%, indicating a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.7% and certificates 11.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education. Carlingford - East's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,970 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1106. Education provision is balanced with three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. As of the most recent statistics, the area functions as an education hub with 24.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlingford - East has 62 active public transport stops. These are served by 38 different bus routes that collectively facilitate 1,931 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 158 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

Daily service frequency averages 275 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlingford - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Carlingford - East shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover rate is high at approximately 57% (around 6,846 people), compared to 53.7% across Greater Sydney.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.7% and 5.2% of residents respectively. 77.2% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 77.3% in Greater Sydney. In Carlingford - East, 20.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,454 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 16.6%. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Carlingford - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlingford-East, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from 2016, has a population where 52.7% were born overseas. Among these residents, 58.8% communicate primarily in a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlingford-East, with 45.8% of people identifying as Christian.

Notably, Buddhism is more prevalent in Carlingford-East compared to Greater Sydney, making up 5.8% versus 4.8%. The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth are Chinese (30.5%), English (12.8%), and Australian (12.6%). Korean ethnicity is slightly overrepresented in Carlingford-East at 6.6%, compared to the regional average of 6.5%. However, Lebanese ethnicity is underrepresented at 1.8% versus 3.8%, and Indian ethnicity is also lower than the regional average at 4.9% versus 3.8%.

Carlingford - East's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carlingford-East's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly above Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carlingford-East has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.3%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (8.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 increased from 9.1% to 10.3%, while the percentage of those aged 55-64 decreased from 12.6% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carlingford-East's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 91%, adding 732 residents to reach a total of 1,536. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 83% of the population growth, while the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to decline in population.